WUNDERDOG
Boston at Detroit
Pick: Detroit +1.5
If your gauging this one by reputation, this line makes sense. When you gauge this by what is happening on the field, it does not. The Red Sox are 13-16 on the road while the Tigers have been a top team at home going 15-8. So the only true value can be on Detroit. Josh Beckett is a solid pitcher, but most of that has been earned in the post-season. The fact is Beckett in the last four years pitched great in '07, but in the year prior had a 5.01 ERA and the last two years he has had a 4+ ERA, so he has been more than hittable during the regular season and has allowed more hits than innings pitched this year and has also walked 28. His career numbers vs the Tigers show a 4.15ERA and the Tigers are not getting due respect at home. The Red Sox bats have been very quiet over the last 15 games as they have struggled to produce runs. The Sox have produced three runs or less nine times in their last 15 games, so giving +1.5 runs to the opponent on the road is a pretty high stake. When you factor in the fact they have won four of their 13 road games by a single run, it reduces their road mark to 9-20 against a -1.5 runline. The Tigers are 8-3 in their last 11 at home and would be 9-2 if getting a run and a half. I'll go with the value here and play the Tigers on the runline.
Doc's Sports
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
A couple of weeks back, the Brewers swept these Marlins in Milwaukee. Now we are seeing a reversal as the wheels are coming off the Crews pitching staff. Could Looper be the next victim? I think so. While watching him closely in his last three outings, I've noticed how his bulldog tenacity has helped him stay in games. After his last appearance, I made a comment to a friend that he would get lit up in his next appearance. Well, here it is and the Marlin bats are on fire. Florida counters with a young lefty Sean West. This is his third outing in the bigs. In 12 MLB innings, he has allowed just 3-runs. Marlins win again!
Stephen Nover
San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
Not often will I back the Washington Nationals when they are favored.
This is one of those rare exceptions.
No doubt the Nationals are terrible. That point isn't being argued. But the Giants are truly bad when they are on the road with a 7-16 away mark. That's the second-fewest road wins in the big leagues.
San Francisco ranks last in the majors in homers and second-from-the-bottom in runs scored. The Nationals rate among the top 12 in runs, batting average and homers.
This is a rare instance where the Nationals are in the spotlight. That's because Randy Johnson is going for his 300th victory. Opponents are extra motivated not to let Johnson reach his milestone against them, especially when they are playing at home such as the Nationals are here.
The Giants are facing plenty of distractions. Not only is Johnson going for No. 300, but the team was scheduled to visit the White House this morning. Their thoughts are on Barack Obama not Jordan Zimmerman.
Zimmerman is a rookie, but he's the Nationals' best pitcher. His ERA isn't good, but he has tremendous potential. The right-hander has a 47-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Beating him isn't going to be easy for the Giants with their anemic offense. The Giants have lost their last five aways games against a right-handed pitcher.
The Nationals' confidence is up after they ended their six-game losing streak last night against the Giants and ace Tim Lincecum. Washington is averaging 7.5 runs in four games against the Giants this season.
Johnson is 45. He still can be effective - when pitching in a pitcher's park. He's 0-2 with an 8.50 ERA in four road outings this season. The Nationals have added another big right-handed bat to go against Johnson with Elijah Dukes now off the DL.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -137
I'll back the Rays at home tonight against a struggling Royals offense which is only scoring 3.4 runs per game on the road. The Rays offense is thriving at home, averaging 5.7 runs per game. It has been at its best against righties, scoring 6.0 runs per game, and it should have its way with the Royals' Bannister tonight, who comes in with a 6.88 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Royals are 1-8 in their last 9 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss. The Rays are 4-0 in Niemann's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Rays.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
The St Louis Cardinals have won 13 of their last 17 at home against the Cincinnati Reds including last night’s 5-2 victory. Tonight they will face the Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto who has pitched much better on the road this season than at home. In five road starts, he has a 4-1 TSR and a 1.87 ERA. In his last start against the Cardinals he went seven innings giving up one run on five hits. He will be opposed by St Louis righty Kyle Lohse who was all over the place the last time he faced Cincinnati. They hit him up for seven runs on nine hits and three walks in a 8-3 win for the Reds. Cincinnati has been very good when coming off a loss and are 15-8 in this spot. Go with the Reds
Play on: Cincinnati
IndianCowboy
Take Seattle Mariners over the Baltimore Orioles.
This game features two up and coming pitchers in Bergessen and Vargas. Bergessen pitched very well against Detroit in his last start going 8 strong innings and giving up just two runs en route to an Orioles 7-2 win. Having said that, he is not the type of pitcher that puts together back to back quality starts and he is likely to have a let down today. Remember, he had given up 12 runs in 17 innings prior to that start - 3 straight non-quality starts. Vargas on the other hand is a 25 year old lefty that has great stuff. He has pitched exceptionally well for the Ms this season and is 2-0 with a 1.65 era. He has given up just 6 hits in 13+ innings including dominating the Angels in Anaheim in his last start. Heck, he cashed as a +165 dog which is when I first took notice of him. The juice is not all that much on Vargas today as Bergessen is likely in for a let down, so I'll take the M's.
Donnie Black Sports
Houston v. Colorado Over 9.5
It is hard to get behind any over with these two offenses but there are a couple of factors in our favor tonight. For starters, Houston should continue to have success against Colorado pitcher Jason Marquis, who up until this point has defied the odds with career-best marks across the board. In his last appearance against the Astros earlier this season, Marquis was torched for nine runs in 3.2 innings. That game wasn’t an anomaly. Last year, in 17.2 innings against Houston, Marquis’ ERA was 5.09. In 2007, more of the same with a 6.10 ERA in 20.2 innings. The core of Houston’s lineup (Berkman, Lee, Pence and Tejada) are a combined 48-for-106, .452 lifetime against Marquis -- 13-for-19 three weeks ago. His counterpart, Brian Moehler, is coming off a rare complete game one-run effort against the Pirates. Prior to that game, getting a quality effort out of Moehler was close to impossible. Entering the Pittsburgh contest, his numbers were atrocious with 26 innings, 42 hits and 24 earned runs. Dating back to 2005, Moehler had not thrown more than 111 pitches in a start, yet threw 123 last time out. In his last five starts following a game in which he lasted seven innings or more, he allowed 19 earned runs in 22.1 innings combined. In last night’s 11-inning affair, 10 different relief pitchers tossed and Houston closer LaTroy Hawkins has thrown three consecutive days.Recommendation: Over