SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (33-23) at N.Y. Mets (31-25)
The Phillies send ace Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.40 ERA) to the mound at Citi Field for the middle game of a three-game set against the rival Mets, who are scheduled to start Mike Pelfrey (4-2, 4.85).
Despite a rocky outing by ace Johan Santana, New York held on for a 6-5 victory in Tuesday’s series opener. The Mets are just 4-5 in their last nine games, but they’re on positive upticks of 8-2 in divisional games, 6-1 at home, 17-8 on Wednesday and 21-8 at home against southpaw starters. On the downside, they’ve lost seven of their last nine as an underdog.
Philadelphia dropped to 5-3 on its current 10-game road trip with last night’s loss, including 1-3 in the last four. Still the Phillies 13-5 in their last 18 on the highway and they continue to sport baseball’s best road record at 21-9. Furthermore, the defending World Series champions are on lengthy hot streaks of 57-29 overall, 35-17 as a visitor, 23-9 on the road against right-handed starters, 38-17 against winning teams, 38-18 as a favorite and 8-3 versus N.L. East rivals.
Dating to last season, the Mets are on an 11-5 overall run in this rivalry (4-1 this season), winning six of the last eight clashes in New York (3-0 at Citi Field this year).
Hamels dominated the Dodgers in a complete-game, 3-0 road win Thursday, scattering five hits with no walks and five strikeouts as the Phillies improved to 6-1 in his last seven starts (4-0 in the last four). Last year’s World Series MVP has gone at least six innings in six consecutive outings, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of those contests.
The Phillies are 6-1 in Hamels’ last seven road outings dating to last season, with the San Diego native going 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts as a visitor this season. Philly is also 4-1 in Hamels’ last five starts facing N.L. East rivals, but 1-4 in his last five versus the Mets, against whom Hamels is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in six career efforts.
Pelfrey’s string of five straight quality starts (2.60 ERA) and seven straight starts allowing three runs or fewer ended with a thud on Thursday in Pittsburgh, as the right-hander got rocked for eight runs on nine hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings, losing 11-6. Despite that outcome, with Pelfrey on the bump, the Mets are still on hot streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-0 in divisional games.
Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts at new Citi Field, and he’s 3-2 with a 4.19 ERA in six lifetime starts against the Phillies. That includes a pair of wins six days apart last month, with Pelfrey yielding three runs in each contest. He pitched 5 1/3 innings in a 7-4 victory at Philly on May 1 then went seven innings in a 7-5 home win May 7, his most recent victory.
With Hamels pitching, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 12-4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 4-0 on Wednesday and 15-6 against divisional foes, and the under is 4-1 in Pelfrey’s last five starts. However, five of Hamels’ last six starts against New York have topped the total, and the over is 8-0-1 in Pelfrey’s last nine starts on Wednesday.
Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 12-4-1 overall, 4-2 on the road, 5-2 against the N.L. East, 6-1 on Wednesday and 5-2-1 against right-handed starters. Likewise, the Mets are on “under” runs of 4-2 overall, 4-1 versus the N.L. East and 5-0 versus lefty starters, but the over is 23-8-4 in New York’s last 35 Wednesday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (34-24) at Boston (34-24)
The Yankees give struggling right-hander Chien-Ming Wang (0-3, 14.46) another shot on the mound when they face the Red Sox and Tim Wakefield (7-3, 4.50) as these bitter rivals continue a three-game series at Fenway Park.
Boston got a dominating start from ace Josh Becket on Tuesday and blanked New York 7-0, pulling into a first-place tie with the Yankees in the A.L. East while improving to 6-0 against its hated rivals this season. The BoSox are on upticks of 84-37 at home, 17-6 against the A.L. East and 26-12 as a favorite.
Despite last night’s loss, New York is still on runs of 19-7 overall, 4-2 on the highway, 7-2 against A.L. East foes, 11-5 versus right-handed starters and 56-22 on Wednesday.
Not only are the Red Sox are a perfect 6-0 against the Bronx Bombers this season, but they’ve won seven straight meetings dating to last year (5-0 at Fenway). The Red Sox have scored a total of 45 runs against Yankee pitching this season.
Wang began the season with three atrocious starts (23 runs allowed in six total innings), then went on the disabled list for a month before returning in a relief role. After several strong stints out of the pen, he earned the starting nod Thursday against Texas but got touched up for five runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings, though the Yankees bailed him out by rallying for an 8-6 victory. Wang kicked off 2009 with two starts on the road and gave up 15 runs in 4 2/3 innings, losing 7-5 at Baltimore and 15-5 at Tampa Bay.
Despite Wang’s struggles this season, the Yankees are still 47-20 in his last 67 starts overall, 21-8 in his last 29 on the road and 22-10 in his last 32 outings against A.L. East rivals, including 5-1 in his last six against the Red Sox. For his career, Wang is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA against Boston in 14 games (13 starts).
Wakefield picked up his seventh win of the season Thursday at Detroit, giving up three runs in 6 2/3 innings en route to the 6-3 road victory. In two previous starts, though, the veteran knuckleballer gave up a combined 11 runs (all earned) on 16 hits and eight walks in 10 2/3 innings. He’s 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway this season, with the Red Sox offense supporting him with an average of 9.3 runs per game.
The Red Sox are 8-2 in Wakefield’s last 10 trips to the hill, 39-16 in his last 55 at Fenway Park and 38-14 in his last 52 as a favorite. However, with Wakefield facing the Yankees, Boston is in ruts of 2-6 overall and 2-5 at home. For his career, Wakefield is 10-17 with a 5.03 ERA versus New York.
Wang’s last five starts dating to last season have topped the total, and the over is 4-1 in his last five road outings and 4-1 in his last five games pitching at Fenway Park. Also, the over is 4-1 in Wakefield’s last five at Fenway and 5-0 in his last five on Wednesday.
The Yankees are on “under” stretches of 5-1-1 on the road and 9-3-1 against winning teams. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 20-7-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 5-0 as a favorite, 8-1 against righty starters and 6-2 versus divisional opponents. Lastly, five of the last six Yanks-Sox clashes at Fenway have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Big Al McMordie
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: New York Yankees
Last night, the boys from Beantown shut out the Bronx Bombers 7-0 behind Josh Beckett, and will turn to veteran knuckleballer Timmy Wakefield on Wednesday. His mound opponent will be Chien-Ming Wang, who has been dreadful all season. Wang's ERA is 14.46 over his seven starts, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on Wakefield here, especially given that Boston is 6-0 over the Yankees this year. But Wakefield's ERA is pretty bad, too, over his last three starts: 7.27, with a 1.85 WHIP. And he's NEVER had success vs. the Yankees in his career, going 10-15 with a 4.80 ERA. Take the Yankees as a live underdog tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Chicago Cubs w/Zambrano vs Rodriguez
The Cubs and Astros meet in Game Two of their three game series when Carlos Zambrano meets Wandy Rodriguez in Houston tonight. Zambrano takes the hill having won 9 of his last 10 road starts. He's also 10-3 in his MLB career in games in Houston and 5-1 in his last six starts on Wednesdays. On the other hand, Rodriguez has dropped each of his last three starts and is just 2-6 in his last eight starting efforts on Wednesdays. Look for The Cubs to improve to 12-2 away on Wednesday here tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Talk about a pitching mismatch and this one takes the cake. Felix Hernandez has been on fire, while Jeremy Guthrie is ice-cold. Hernandez has allowed just two earned runs and 24 base runners in his last three starts, spanning 21 2/3 IP. That's a tremendous 0.83 ERA & 1.11 WHIP. The righthander has been outstanding away from home this season, slamming opponents with a 2.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .227 BAA in six outings. Hernandez has recorded more strikeouts (79) than innings pitched (78 1/3). And, he's had no trouble at all in his last three against the Orioles, sporting a 1.80 ERA! O's hurler Jeremy Guthrie has had his problems this season. Not only is his ERA and WHIP quite high, overall, but Baltimore opponents have scored six runs or more in half of this season's starts. Look for the Mariners to get to Guthrie early and often. I'm playing Seattle on Wednesday.
Dennis Macklin
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
Both teams hitting just .250 over the past week and both teams send razor-sharp starters to the hill. Matt Cain rocks a 7-1 2.27 ERA for the year and 3-0 and 1.33 over L3. The Snakes' Buckner is 2-1 and 2.95 in his three starts for Arizona. Runs should be tough to come by setting up the sixth straight under in the season series. Go Low.
Steve Merril
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under 8
The Nationals are the first team to 40 losses in major league baseball and they have been ice cold on offense, scoring 1 run or less in four of their past five games with a perfect 5-0 Under mark during that span. Tonight they will host a Cincinnati squad that is 15-13 on the road and have won by playing low scoring games with an 18-9 Under mark away from home.
Going for Washington is Jordan Zimmermann who is 2-3 with a 5.71 ERA and five Unders in nine starts. His overall poor numbers are due mainly to his struggles on the road as he has been more comfortable at home where he is has a 4.85 ERA and a solid 1.180 WHIP in five starts with a 4-1 Under mark, including a fantastic 29-5 strikeout/walk ratio. His BABIP is .355 which is 60 points worse then the league average meaning he has encountered more than his expected share of bad luck this season.
Going for Cincinnati is Johnny Cueto who is 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA on the season with a 1.041 WHIP in 11 starts. He has been even stronger on the road with a 4-1 record and a 1.80 ERA and 0.925 WHIP in six starts with a 4-2 Under mark. Struggling against Cueto is Ronnie Belliard (0-3), Adam Dunn (0-2), and Alberto Gonzalez (0-2).
Red Dog Sports
Toronto at Texas
Play Under 10
Kevin Millwood has pitched 2 overs and 8 unders this year with an ERA of 2.96. Texas has 22 unders, 7 overs and a push in their last 30 games and Toronto has 7 unders and 2 pushes in their last 9 on the road. Look for another under on Wednesday night!
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO CUBS / HOUSTON ASTROS
Take CHICAGO CUBS
When assessing teams and pitchers, it is better to look at recent results rather than overall seasonal numbers. There are stark differences with these teams. Last place Houston has a losing mark at home and starter Wandy Rodriguez has fallen off a cliff after a hot start, 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA his last three starts. Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano (4-2) has a 2.04 ERA his last three starts, fanning 20 in 17 innings. Play the Cubs.
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia at N.Y. METS +120
Today we're in the Big Apple with a FREE play on the Mets as they host the Phillies in a matchup of A.L. East squads.
The Phillies are coming to the end of a long road trip and fatigue is starting to set in. You could see it on Tuesday night when they weren't able to take advantage of an off night from New York hurler Johan Santana and lost 6-5. We'll play the plus-money and take the Mets at home in this one, too.
New York has Mike Pelfrey (4-2, 4.85 ERA) on the mound tonight. He got drilled on Thursday in Pittsburgh when he gave up eight runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings. Prior to that he had five straight quality starts with a 2.60 ERA and seven straight outings of allowing three runs or less. With Pelfrey on the hill, the Mets are on runs of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-0 against A.L. East teams.
Philadelphia has Cole Hamels (4-2, 4.40) pitching in this one. He's coming off a Thursday start that saw him blank the Dodgers 3-0 with a complete-game effort that saw him strike out five and allow five hits. But this hurler has struggled against the Mets, going 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in six career outings against New York.
The Mets have played well in the new stadium lately, going 6-1 in their last seven at home. They are on further streaks of 8-2 against N.L. West teams, 17-8 on Wednesdays and 21-8 at home against left-handed starters. In this rivalry, the Mets have won 11 of the last 16 and six of the last eight in the Big Apple, including three straight at the new Citi Field.
Look for them to continue that run. Play the plus-money with the Mets.
2♦ N.Y. METS
Chris Jordan
Philadelphia -130 at N.Y. METS
Looking inside the numbers for this one – pure numbers – and keeping it short and sweet:
With Cole Hamels pitching, the Phillies are on under streaks of 13-4 overall, 6-1 on the road, 4-0 on Wednesdays and 15-6 against NL East foes. The under is also 4-1 in Mike Pelfrey’s last five starts. The Mets are on under runs of 4-2 overall, 4-1 versus the N.L. East and 5-0 versus lefty starters.
We shold be in store for quite a pitchers' duel at Citi Field, and I'll bank on a low-scoring affair.
Play this one low.
1♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Angels at TAMPA BAY
Missed last night with our comp play, but a rock-solid 5-1 the last 6 days for free.
Tonight in the junior circut, play the Rays to stop their 3-game slide as the take on the Angels and John Lackey.
Lackey has been average since returning to the rotation, allowing 10 runs over his last 21 innings of work for an 0-1 mark. We expect the Rays bats to get things going in this spot tonight.
Jeff Niemann has been tip-top of late, and is coming off a complete game shutout of Kansas City, and he has allowed just 2 earned runs his last 18 innings of work.
Tampa Bay is still 7-3 at home versus Los Angeles since the '07 season, and we see the Rays evening things in this three game set with the win tonight behind their hot hurler.
Play on Tampa to snap their losing skid at 3 games.
1♦ TAMPA BAY
Karl Garrett
Kansas City at CLEVELAND -140
Tonight I have to lay the wood with the Indians over the Royals.
Kansas City has absolutely fizzled out, as last night they blew a 4-0 lead to drop their 10th in their last 11 games. The Royals are also just 1-3 at Progressive Field this year, and 9-18 overall on the road this season.
The Indians are starting to get the ball rolling in the right direction, as last night's win was their 4th in their last 6 games.
Tribe hurler Carl Pavano has been on fire, and does come into this start having gone 3-0 over his last 4 starts, working 29-plus innings of 7-run ball along the way.
Pavano also owns a win over the Royals the last time he faced them in May, while his counterpart Gil Meche is just 2-5 with a 4.35 ERA for the season.
Meche is also 0-2 his last 3 starts versus the Indians, allowing 11 runs in 18 innings of work.
G-Man gonna lay it with Cleveland.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Dunkel Index
Seattle at Baltimore
The Mariners look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and take advantage of a Baltimore team that is just 2-8 in Jeremy Guthrie's last 10 starts. Seattle is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105).
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.079; Washington (Martis) 14.573
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Under
Game 953-954: St. Louis at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.800; Florida (Volstad) 15.048
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Under
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.158; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.551
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.277; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.794
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 14.775; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.026
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Under
Game 961-962: Colorado at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.545; Milwaukee (Bush) 16.756
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 963-964: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.525; Arizona (Davis) 14.781
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.358; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.463
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 967-968: Seattle at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.359; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.421
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105); Under
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.011; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.709
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Under
Game 971-972: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.027; Cleveland (Pavano) 15.133
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-150); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 16.185; Boston (Wakefield) 16.951
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 11
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
Game 975-976: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.911; Texas (Millwood) 15.830
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Over
Game 977-978: Detroit at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.709; White Sox (Danks) 15.793
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Game 979-980: Minnesota at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano); 17.348; Oakland (Braden) 15.785
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Over
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Yankees are 9-0 THIS season on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led. Boston is 0-5 with Wakefield as a favorite when he allowed no walks and they won his previous start.
Vernon Croy
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and it would have been a Premium Play for me if it wasn't over my strict personal limit of -150 for all sports. The Rangers have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Kevin Millwood (5-4, 2.96 ERA) who has an ERA of just 2.41 over his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 13-3 in Millwood's last 16 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game and the Jays are just 1-5 in their last 6 games in game 3 of a series. The Jays are just 2-7 in their last 9 games as a dog of +110 to +150 and they are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games. The Jays are just 1-6 in their last 7 road games when the posted total is 9.0 to 10.5 and although Ricky Romero (3-2, 4.10) got the win in his last outing he has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.16 while giving up 7 long balls. Take the Texas Rangers to get the win at home tonight in game 3 of this 4 game series with the Toronto Blue Jays.