Jr Tips
GIANTS vs. DIAMONDBACKS
Barry Zito, whose record hardly reflects how effective he's been, looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season as he takes the mound for the Giants against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. San Francisco (30-27) is last in the National League in runs with 226, and has been held to two runs or fewer 21 times this season. Zito (2-6, 3.86 ERA) has had a major league-worst 2.26 runs to work with per nine innings.The veteran left-hander is 2-6 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona (25-34) will start Doug Davis (3-6, 3.36), who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. The left-hander yielded three hits and walked four while striking out five in six innings during Arizona's 8-0 victory over San Diego on Friday night.Davis is 4-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 15 starts and one relief appearance versus the Giants. The Diamondbacks have lost two straight and five of seven. Both these pitchers have been vitims of no run support all season and now they both face offenses that have struggled to score all year. 9 runs is too many for these two teams to put on the scoreboard.
TAKE UNDER 9 RUNS
Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: MLB Texas w/Millwood -155 Over Toronto
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
276 - 179 run 60 % 20-8 recent run
Cinci reds Wednesday !
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Free Selection from Platinum Plays
DETROIT TIGERS - 135 Over the Chicago White Sox
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Indiancowboy
Take the Texas Rangers -1.5 (+125) over the Toronto Bluejays.
I almost made this a play today but I am just not a fan of the RL so I decided to take a play in the O's/M's game. The Rangers were spanked 0-9 yesterday and now they have their ace in Millwood on the mound. Yes, Millwood is an ace and has pitched extremely well this year. He is one of the reasons why this team is 33-25 and 18-11 at home as the North Carolina native has a 2.96era this year. Heck, he has given up just 2 earned runs in his last 13 innings. This includes his shutout at Fenway of Boston and helping the Rangers win 5-0. Its nice to get the Rangers at home, off a burial and with their ace on the mound today for a decent value on the RL with the dog price. Romero is a good looking lefty from Cali, but the only thing he is not capable of back to back quality starts in my book. Check out how his w/l works out: W, ND, W, L, L, W. He had a solid 9-3 win over KC but I look for him to have a let down today. The Jays are 1-6 when the total is set this high while the Rangers are 9-2 when the total is set this high. Besides, my over 73.5 for the Rangers for the season is looking good and it will be nice to pick up another W for that unit pendnig future.
Nick Parsons
OAK (-130) vs MIN
Dallas Braden (5-5, 3.41 ERA), who in his third major-league season is the veteran of the A's talented rotation, looks to help Oakland (26-31) bounce back. The 25-year-old Braden is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last four starts since dropping three straight decisions. He allowed one run and five hits while striking out a season-high seven without a walk in seven innings of a 9-1 victory over Baltimore on Friday. Francisco Liriano is 1-2 with a 6.38 ERA in five starts versus the A's. Look for OAKLAND to improve to 5-3 its last 8 as a home favorite of -125 to -150!
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they face the Mets slated to start at 7:05 EST. Philly is a solid 13-6 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Mets are only 13-27 (-19.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5.3 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons; 3-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Phils are a solid 19-7 (+13.6 Units) against the money line with triple revenge over the last 3 seasons. Mets starter Pelfry is just 6-14 (-11.3 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Hamels coming off a complete game shutout of the powerful Dodgers. Pelfry was hammered in his last start yielding 8 ER in 3.7 IP at Pittsburgh. Phils will bounce back BIG.
Craig Trapp
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Records
Pittsburgh Pirates 26-32, 11-21 away (Morton 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Atlanta Braves 29-28, 15-15 home (Jurrjens 5-3, 2.84 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
-Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Braves are 4-1 in Jurrjens' last 5 starts as a favorite.
-Pirates are 9-28 in the last 37 meetings in Atlanta.
Atlanta has been playing very good lately winning the last three. Pittsburgh has been very poor late losing the last three. Today Morton makes his first start of the year for PIT. Think he will be good for the first few innings but he will not make it past 5 innings. As we all know the PIT bullpen has been horrible. ATL starting pitcher Jurrjens has been awesome all year. He has only given up more than 4 ER in one game. Today he will shut down the very average lineup of PIT. Chipper Jones has been great all year and think ATL scores at least 6 runs. SCORE ATL 7 - PIT 3
Tom Freese
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado is 44-90 their last 134 road games vs. a team with a winning home record of over 60% and they are 3-8 in the last 11 starts made by Jorge DE LA Rosa and they are 3-8 in game 2 of a series. Colorado is 4-10 their last 14 games at Milwaukee. The Brewers are 15-6 their last 21 home games and they are 10-4 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. The Brewers are 13-4 in the last 17 starts made by Dave Bush vs. losing teams and they ar 47-21 vs. lefty starters. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Bush vs. DE LA Rosa)
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
It is not too often that we would recommend playing a Run Line favorite against the New York Mets at home, but we actually see value in this play with Cole Hamels on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Now the reining World Series MVP has a high 4.40 ERA this season, but keep in mind that he got off to an awful start. He has now allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts however, allowing two runs or less in six of those outings. He can take advantage of a Mets lineup here that is struggling with left-handed pitching right now, batting a microscopic .215 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games.
Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey has been annoyingly erratic for the Mets, and the net result has been a bad 4.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP despite a 4-2 record. It appeared that Pelfrey had turned a corner, but he then regressed terribly vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates in his last outing, when he was lit up for nine runs on nine hits and four walks in only 3.2 innings of work. He is facing a Philadelphia lineup that is hitting a very respectable .275 vs. right-handers in the last 10 games.
We feel that this is enough of a starting pitching mismatch to justify a Run Line play on the Phillies at decent odds.
Pick: Phillies -1.5
Ben Burns
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Last night, I had originally considered using the Phillies as one of today's guaranteed selections. However, the line move kept me from doing so. That said, I still feel that they'll have an advantage.
The Phillies came up just short in last night's 6-5 loss. The Mets had the better of the pitching match-up though, as they had Johan Santana on the mound. Tonight, it’s a different story, as the Phillies have their ace, Cole Hamels, taking to the mound. The southpaw, after a rocky start early this season, certainly seems to be back to his dominant form of last season. He and the Phillies are available at a fairly reasonable price (even after the line move) since they're on the road and Hamels gives them a big edge over Mike Pelfrey.
Pelfrey is coming off of a very rough outing at Pittsburgh and the other team from the other end of the state hasn't treated him very kindly either. Pelfrey does have a pair of wins against the Phillies this season but he walked five while striking out none in those two starts. Also, he gave up 15 hits in 12 1/3 innings. A problem for Pelfrey when facing the Phillies is that he struggles against left-handed hitters. The Phillies are very dangerous on that side of the plate as they have left-handed power threats like Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard plus they have speedy switch-hitters like Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. Pelfrey may have won two match-ups with the Phillies this season but he certainly didn't dominate them. After hitting Santana quite well last night, the Phillies should pound him.
Conversely, the Mets aren't likely to fare too well vs. Hamels. Note that last time out, Hamels tossed a complete-game shutout vs. the Dodgers. The Phillies southpaw has a 1-3 career mark against New York but he really hasn’t pitched all that poorly (3.79 ERA) in those games. Also, Hamels hasn’t faced the Mets this season, which works in his favor. On the other hand, the Phillies will face Pelfrey for the third time since May 1st.
The Phillies have been the best road team in baseball this season as they have a 21-9 mark away from home. With their ace on the mound, they've got a solid shot at bouncing back with a victory. Consider Philadelphia
Stephen Nover
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
The Yankees can't beat Boston this season. They are 0-6 versus the Red Sox.
Don't look for anything to change in this matchup.
Right now Chien-Ming Wang could be the most brutal pitcher in the majors. He is 0-3 with a 14.46 ERA. Opponents are batting .443 against him. Wang recently came off the DL and is trying to regain his previous form. He's not there yet. This is almost a sacrifice game for New York. Wang's career ERA at Fenway Park is 5.11.
The Yankees are still without two of their injured key setup relievers, Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte. Their bullpen ERA is a fat 4.88. Boston, by contrast, has the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.76.
The Red Sox have the versatile offense to take advantage. The Yankees are the one team David Ortiz is hitting against.
Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is off a good start. He's 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway this season.
Scott Rickenbach
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Under
Yesterday we used the over in the Tigers/ChiSox game as our Top Play and they cashed in nicely for us. However, this pitching match-up tonight makes for an entirely different story. Even though Justin Verlander of the Tigers has poor career numbers against the White Sox do not be fooled by that. He's pitching better right now than he ever has in his career and he's capable of shutting down a White Sox lineup that has struggled for much of this season. As for the Tigers lineup, they will struggle with John Danks of the White Sox. The Chicago southpaw has come up with some of his best outings this season when he's in his "comfort zone" on his home mound and we look for more of the same here. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in the Chicago White Sox game on Wednesday night.
Randall the Handle
BOSTON -1½ +1.54 over NY Yankees
This choice is all about playing against Chien-Ming Wang, a guy that is so mentally damaged right now that going against him just makes sense. Wang looks like a deer in the headlights out there and although he may turn it around at some point, it’s highly unlikely that’ll occur here. I don’t really need to go into his numbers, as they’re well documented and they’re not pretty. Wang has not had a quality start all year and that’s a big understatement. The opposition is hitting .443 off him and he’s allowed four jacks in just 18 frames. Incidentally, in four starts he’s pitched a combined 10.2 innings and hasn’t come close to pitching deep into any game. The Red Sox are not the team you want to face when you can’t get anyone out and you can be damn sure, they’re licking their chops waiting to get at him. He virtually has no chance of success at this venue under these circumstances. The Red Sox are beating up on the Yankees and what we have here is a frustrated Yanks team that can’t beat the team they want to beat most and things are not about to change here. Play: Boston -1½ +1.54 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.46 over TEXAS
The Blue Jays got their groove back and at this price they’re absolutely worth a wager tonight. Kevin Millwood is having a very decent year but he’s never faired well against the Jays, as his 1-4 career mark and 6.25 ERA will attest to. The Jays have come in here and have exploded for 15 runs while allowing just three. In addition, Ricky Romero is a quality pitcher that throws strikes and that has four quality starts in six games. He was hit hard in Baltimore and he was hit hard by the Red Sox but the Rangers bats have cooled off dramatically over the last four games, scoring just 10 times over that stretch. Throw out the six they scored on Sunday and they’ve scored four times in three games. The Jays pen is hot, their bats are warming up while the Rangers bats are cold, thus, give the Jays a great chance for the sweep. Play: Toronto +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND -1½ +1.51 over Kansas City
The Royals are a complete and utter joke right now. They’ve lost 10 of 11 and they’ve lost 22 of its last 28 games. They can’t score runs, they can’t get stop others from scoring and the result have been a whole bunch of lopsided losses. Meanwhile, the Indians are coming on. This is a dangerous team that could go on a serious run and it’s highly doubtful the pathetic Royals are going to stop them. Carl Pavano throws nothing but strikes, rarely walking anyone and he’s gaining big time steam right now. Pavano has gone 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last eight outings and he’s coming off a three-hitter, complete game against the White Sox. Gil Meche is capable of pitching well but it’s very difficult to go out there knowing you have to be near perfect to win. No pitcher on the Royals is getting any support and against Pavano they’ll be no support once again. The Royals are seeing BB’s, they have no confidence, they know they’re going to lose and the Indians are waiting in the wings for their prey. Do not miss this bet. Play: Cleveland -1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Yankee Capper
Cincinnati/Washington Over 9
Pittsburgh/Atlanta Over 8.5
Chicago Cubs -115