SPORTS ADVISORS
Toronto (35-31) at Philadelphia (36-26)
Blue Jays rookie Scott Richmond (4-3, 3.90 ERA) tries for his first victory in nearly seven weeks when he pitches opposite the ageless Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.11) and the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
Toronto scored the tying run in the top of the ninth inning in Tuesday’s series opener, then exploded for five runs in the 10th en route to an 8-3 victory that snapped the team’s four-game losing skid. Despite the comeback last night, the Jays remain in miserable slumps of 3-10 on the road, 1-6 in interleague play, 1-6 against the N.L. East, 2-8 in interleague road games, 6-14 as an underdog, 21-41 as an underdog against the National League and 0-4 on Wednesday.
Since returning from a grueling 11-game, four-city road trip, the Phillies have dropped three of four at home, all against A.L. East foes, and the defending champs are now just 13-17 at Citizens Bank Park this season. Philadelphia is still 20-10 in its last 30 contests overall and 39-20 in its last 59 as a favorite, but it has dropped six of eight on Wednesday and 10 of 13 when favored against the American League.
Toronto has now won three straight against the Phillies going back to last season, all in Philadelphia.
Richmond is winless in his last five starts dating to a May 3 victory over Baltimore. The Blue Jays are 1-4 during this stretch, with Richmond giving up a total of 17 runs (all earned) in 26 1/3 innings (5.81 ERA). That includes a 6-2 home loss to Kansas City in his most recent start on June 6, as he yielded five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander, who has never faced Philadelphia, is 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in five road contests this season.
The 46-year-old Moyer has turned back the clock over his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA (six runs, 15 hits and no walks allowed in 19 innings). He got a no-decision in Philadelphia’s 6-3, 10-inning victory at the Mets on Thursday, yielding all three runs in six innings. Although the Phillies are just 2-5 in Moyer’s last seven starts overall and 3-7 in his last 10 Wednesday affairs, they’ve won seven of his last 10 at Citizens Bank, and they’re 35-16 in his last 51 when favored.
Moyer is 2-3 with a hefty 6.82 ERA in six home starts this season and a dreadful 1-5 with a 7.17 ERA in night games. He’s also 14-8 despite a 5.27 ERA in 37 career appearances (35 starts) against Toronto.
The over is 4-1 in Richmond’s last five road starts and 4-0 in his last four as an underdog, but on the flip side, Moyer’s last five starts overall have stayed below the posted total.
The over is 6-2 in Philadelphia’s last eight games overall, but otherwise it is on “under” streaks of 9-5-1 at home, 14-6-1 in interleague play and 9-3 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Toronto carries “over” trends of 5-0 in interleague action (all against the N.L. East), 5-0 against lefty starters and 7-0-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (34-30) at St. Louis (35-30)
Edwin Jackson (6-3, 2.24) looks to continue his sensational season when he takes the mound for the Tigers against the Cardinals and Todd Wellemeyer (5-6, 5.50) as this three-game interleague series continues at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals’ slumping offense woke up in a big away Tuesday, roughing up the red hot Tigers ace Justin Verlander en route to an 11-2 victory. It was just the 11th time in the last 33 games that St. Louis scored more than three runs in a contest. Despite the victory, the Redbirds are still stuck in ruts of 4-7 overall and 1-4 at home, but they’ve won seven of their last nine on Wednesday and nine of their last 12 against winning teams.
Detroit has dropped three in a row and is now 4-5 on its current 11-game road trip. The Tigers have scored a total of 16 runs in their last six games. Still, they’re on hot streaks of 45-20 in interleague play, 13-7 in interleague road games, 23-12 against the N.L. Central, 16-6 as a favorite, 23-8 as a road favorite and 41-11 as a chalk against the National League.
Since losing to the Redbirds in five games in the 2006 World Series, Detroit is 5-2 against St. Louis, all in interleague action the past two-plus seasons. However, all five wins came in Motown. Since the start of the 2006 season, the home team has won 13 of the last 15 head-to-head clashes, with only four of those contests – Games 3, 4 and 5 of the ‘06 World Series, as well as last night’s clash – played in St. Louis.
Jackson’s streak of six straight quality starts – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – ended Thursday at Chicago, but he still had a solid outing, holding the White Sox to two runs in five innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3 loss. The right-hander has a 1.61 ERA over his last seven starts (five of them Tigers wins), including a 1.37 ERA in four road games. For the season, Jackson is 3-2 with a 1.55 ERA in seven starts as a visitor.
Wellemeyer’s struggles continued in Thursday’s start at Florida, as he gave up five runs on 11 hits in six innings, but the Redbirds rallied for a 6-5 victory. Wellemeyer is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in his last three starts and 2-5 with a 5.72 ERA in eight outings at Busch Stadium this season. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Wellemeyer’s last five starts against American League competition, but they’ve lost six straight games in which the right-hander has been a home ‘dog.
Jackson faced the Cardinals last year when he was with Tampa Bay and allowed just a run in 5 1/3 innings, but the Rays lost 5-4 on the road. Meanwhile, Wellemeyer pitched five scoreless innings in Detroit last June, getting a no decision in St. Louis’ 3-2 loss.
Jackson’s last five starts overall and his last four on the road have stayed under the total, and the under has been the play in seven of Wellemeyer’s last eight outings against winning teams and six of his last eight as an underdog.
Even thought last night’s game soared over the total, the Tigers remain on a bunch of “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 4-2 on the road, 11-4-1 in interleague road games, 21-7 against right-handed starters, 4-1 as a favorite. Also, St. Louis is on “under” tears of 10-5 at home, 14-7-1 against right-handed starters, 5-1-1 against the American League, 6-1 in interleague home games. Lastly, the under is 4-2 in the last six Tigers-Cardinals meetings at Busch Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Cleveland
The Brewers look to make it three straight over the Tribe and build on their 8-2 record in Jeff Suppan's last 10 starts against teams with a losing record. Milwaukee is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has Milwaukee favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110).
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.054; Cincinnati (Owings) 13.060
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Over
Game 903-904: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.243; Cubs (Dempster) 15.302
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); N/A
Game 905-906: LA Angels at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Palmer) 15.766; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.480
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-165); Over
Game 907-908: Washington at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.949; NY Yankees (Wang) 14.819
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-215); 11
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+195); Over
Game 909-910: NY Mets at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 16.085; Baltimore (Uehara) 14.469
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+135); Over
Game 911-912: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 14.876; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.875
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over
Game 913-914: Milwaukee at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 16.584; Cleveland (Huff) 14.820
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Under
Game 915-916: Florida at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Miller) 16.729; Boston (Penny) 16.119
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+160); Over
Game 917-918: Houston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Ortiz) 14.255; Texas (Harrison) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Under
Game 919-920: Arizona at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 14.482; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.118
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+160); Under
Game 921-922: Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 16.035; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.648
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Over
Game 923-924: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 14.690; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 14.203
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Over
Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.305; Colorado (Cook) 16.254
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+125); Over
Game 927-928: Seattle at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Olson) 14.556; San Diego (Gaudin) 14.045
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Over
Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 14.659; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.515
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Under
WNBA
Minnesota at Phoenix
The Lynx are coming off a win in Sacramento last night and look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 overall. Minnesota is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Phoenix favored by just 2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2).
Game 651-652: Minnesota at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.803; Phoenix 114.884
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2); Under
Cajun Sports
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians
Selection: 2* Milwaukee Brewers +110
The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to sweep a three-game set on the road against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night. After coming back from a huge deficit on Monday night scoring six runs in the eighth inning to capture Game One 14 to 12 and then winning Game Two by a score of 7 to 5 they should be playing with a ton of confidence. The Brewers are 35-29 W/L (+4.8) on the season overall and 18-15 W/L (+5.4) on the highway. They are also in two positive situations facing a left-handed starter and playing under the lights both have been profitable for this Brewers team this season. Cleveland has struggled in most categories including overall posting a record of 29-37 W/L (-9.1) and 16-17 W/L at home for -4.6 units. Right handed starters have been a problem for the Indians as they are only 22-31 W/L (-10.6) and when playing at night they are 18-21 W/L (-5.0) all bad signs for an Indians team needing some help to turn their season around. The Brewers will send Jeff Suppan to the bump and over his last three trips he is 2-0 W/L with an ERA of 2.12. Suppan is 8-0 W/L (+8.6) after a game where he did not walk a batter in his last outing the last two seasons and he is also 5-0 W/L following a quality start in his last trip to the bump. The Indians will counter with David Huff who has posted a record of 2-1 W/L with an ERA of 5.19 over his last three trips to the hill. Cleveland is 5-11 W/L as a home favorite of -150 or less, 4-10 W/L versus the NL Central and 3-9 W/L their last 12 at home versus a team with a winning record. We expect the Brewers to continue their excellent play against the Indians and get the sweep in this series so back the visiting underdog as Suppan and the Brew Crew capture another win on Wednesday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Milwaukee Brewers 6 Cleveland Indians 5
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have come alive after finally getting rid of former manager Clint Hurdle whose teams had a total of three good weeks in seven years. Jim Tracy is 13-5 since taking over including an 11-game winning streak. The Rockies average 6.9 runs per game against lefthanders at home. Aaron Cook was inconsistent the first two months of the season, however, he has won his last two starts while allowing only two runs in 14 innings. David Price is a hot prospect for the Rays but he threw 105 pitches in only 4 1/3 innings his last time out and the lefty has walked 18 batters in just 24 innings. That doesn't bode well for someone making his first appearance at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Tampa Bay is 14-19 on the road. Look for the rejuvenated Rockies to get another win on Wednesday night.
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies look to bounce back after having had their 11-game win streak snapped last night when they send Aaron Cook up against David Price and the Rays in Colorado. Price enters tonight's contest with wins in each of his last two starts despite the fact he has issued 11 walks against 9 strikeouts in those efforts. Meanwhile, Cook enters in fine KW form with 3 walks and 13 strikeouts in his last three starts. With that, look for Cook to improve to 5-1 at home on
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit -120 at ST. LOUIS
How good has Edwin Jackson looked for the Tigers this season, posting a 6-3 mark and 2.24 ERA, strikign out 65 and walking just 23? This guy was labeled one of the Dodgers' stars of the future about six years ago and never really got the chance with Los Angeles.
Then he goes to Tampa Bay and has a horrendous 2007 but seems to get things figured out a bit in 2008, going 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA. Now he's really gotten it straightened out this year in Detroit and is looking like the star everyone projected he would be. He's allowed three earned runs in his last three starts, covering 22 innings in wins of the Orioles and Angels and a no-decision against the White Sox.
In Jackson's last three roadies, he's blanked two opponents and held the other team to two earned runs. He's only seen the Cardinals once in his career, and allowed two runs on seven hits in 7.1 innings.
The Tigers got stomped on Tuesday, 11-2, but they have fared very well against the Cardinals in recent years, winning five of the last seven meetings. Detroit is on further runs of 45-20 in interleague action, 16-5 as a favorite, 23-7 as a road favorite and 23-12 against N.L. Central teams. Meanwhile, St. Louis is just 1-4 in their last five home games, 4-7 in their last 11 overall and 2-5 as a home underdog.
Todd Wellemeyer (5-6, 5.50 ERA) is on the mound for the Cardinals and this guy has been beaten up in his last two outings. Thursday he allowed five runs on 11 hits in six innings at Florida and back on June 6 he gave up six runs on six hits in seven innings of a 10-1 loss at home to the Rockies. In three of his last four at home he's allowed four runs or more.
Jackson is our reason for going with the Tigers tonight. He's good and he's getting better every time he takes the mound. Play Detroit.
4♦ DETROIT
DAVE COKIN
TAMPA BAY RAYS / COLORADO ROCKIES
Take TAMPA BAY RAYS
Tonight's Rays-Rockies pitching matchup favors the Rox, as Aaron Cook has been outstanding of late for Colorado. TB lefty David Price is having control problems and that's led to very high pitch counts and early exits, although he's managed to avoid big innings. Those issues prevent me from taking a strong stance on the Rays tonight. Nevertheless, it's a decent spot for the road dog. The Rays are now winners of six straight and their offense is hot, while the Rockies finally dropped one last night and could be ready to regress. That gets me tilting toward the Rays as road dogs tonight.
JIM FEIST
FLORIDA MARLINS / BOSTON RED SOX
Take: FLORIDA MARLINS.
The young Marlins are back to playing good ball, winning 5 of 7, including a 3-game sweep at Toronto. Boston is not as strong against lefty pitchers, with lefties in the lineup like JD Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz. Southpaw Andrew Miller is in a groove, with a 3.86 ERA his last 3 starts, fanning 17 and walking only 5. Erratic Brad Penny (5.32 ERA) is on the hill for the home team, giving up 83 hits in 66 innings. The value is all with the hot visitors. Play the Marlins.
Khaliagent
Baltimore Orioles -145 (1 unit)
Baltimore pitcher, Uehara, although not having the best record (same with the Mets pitcher), he certainly has a great WHIP of 1.24 this season. The bullpen recently has been doing super with a WHIP of 1.304. Also added to the fact their batters have been doing well over the recently, compared to the Mets. Nice advantage to the Orioles here. There's also great reverse line movement, with only 44% of bettors on Baltimore.
Minnesota Lynx +4 [wait for public to drive or buy point] (1 unit)
The spread has been set low by the linesmaker as it opened up at around -2.5, the public would jump all over it as Phoenix 3 wins in their past games have been by a margin greater than 7. That's fine and good that they are against a decent team in Minnesota. But the question that arises, why so little points advantage against a team that had to travel on back to back games, coming off a very close game. I smell a trap here and Minny should be good enough to hold Phoenix, especially considering Phoenix's lacklustre defense this year compared to that of Minnesota.
Washington Nationals +192 (0.5 unit)
The Nationals are possibly the worst team in the MLB. However, they are given too much juice against NYY pitcher, Wang, who has had a less than dismal season so far. The Nationals starting pitcher has a WHIP of 1.42, compared to Wang's massive 3.45 and that is a huge advantage. Both team's batters have been faring well recently. So, also long as the Nationals tie down the Yankees and the bats get going, this will be a good bet.
Red Dog Sports
Houston at Texas
Play: Under 10.5
These two played an under last night and have played 49 overs and 69 unders this season. Houston has 10 unders, 2 overs and a push in their last 13 interleague games and Texas has 20 unders, 7 overs and a push in their last 28 home games. Look for another under on Wednesday night.
Vernon Croy
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago White Sox
I gave the Chicago Cubs yesterday as my MLB Free Play but that was with Carlos Zambrano on the mound and now Ryan Dempster (4-3, 3.87 ERA) takes the mound after the rain out last night. We are getting solid value here today with the White Sox against Dempster who is just 1-1 with an ERA of 7.84 over 2 starts against the White Sox last season. The Cubs are just 0-6 in Dempster's last 6 starts after a quality start in his last outing and the Cubs are just 1-4 in Dempster's last 5 starts. The White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 Interleague games and they are 5-1 in their last 6 road games. The White Sox are hitting .280 as a team on the road this season and their opponents are hitting just .212 against them over their last 7 games. Grab the value with the Chicago White Sox.
Matt Fargo
Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees
PICK: Washington Nationals
Washington had a chance last night to steal one from the Yankees but it did not work out. Tonight, it has a better chance thanks to a big edge in the pitching department. John Lannan is coming yet another solid outing yet no one really pays attention. He is arguably one of the better pitchers in baseball that no one has heard of and the reason is that he plays for the worst team in baseball. He started the season with a rough outing against Florida but his ERA has basically come down almost every game since and that ERA is a solid 2.65 over his last 11 starts. He has not had as much success on the road than he has at home but a lot of that is due to run support and than can certainly change tonight. He threw only 88 pitches in his last outing meaning he can go a long way again without needing help from the bullpen. In 50 career starts, Lannan has a 3.83 ERA which is extremely solid. The reason Washington could give Lannan run support is that it faces Chien-Ming Wang who has been dreadful this season. In five starts, he has a 14.34 ERA while going 0-4 and he has not come close to putting together a solid performance. He looked sharp out of the bullpen when he made three appearances but his last two starts since then have been anything but. All of the pressure is n him in this start as a spot for him in the rotation in the future will likely be decided on what happens here. The linesmakers had no choice but to make the Yankees a large and overpriced favorite and we will take the huge value side with the Nationals. 3* Washington Nationals
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are 5-0 when Matt Palmer starts as a dog, 6-0 after a win and it is the last game of the series and 6-0 after a 5+ run win. The Giants are a woeful 1-9 as a home favorite of MORE THAN 140 when seeking immediate revenge for a three-plus run loss in which they allowed 10+ hits, with their lone win by a 3-2 margin as a 175 favorite. Grab this price.
John Ryan
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Texas as the host Houston slated to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-10 making 24.5 units since 2003. Play against NL road teams that are an average hitting team = .255 to .269 facing an average AL starter sporting an ERA=4.70 to 5.70 in the first half of the season. Texas is 18-9 (+8.5 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season; 16-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season. Houston bullpen is the real focus for this play as they are in complete shambles sporting a 5.40 ERA and a 1.751 WHIP in road games. In the past 7 games Houston has allowed teams to hit 277 with a 353 OBP while they have scored just 3.7 RPG batting just 225 with an OBP of 282. Two of these games saw Houston score 6 and 8 runs so if you take them out of the recent 7 day span it shows just how very poor Houston is playing right now. Take Texas.
BIG AL
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Selection: Under
At 2:20pm our complimentary selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs 'under' the total. The battle of the windy City features the north-sider Cubs against the south-sider Sox and in the past three years this has been a very contentious and evenly-matched series with each team winning eight of the last 16 games. Tonight's pitching matchup could produce another close one as the Cubs' Ryan Dempster matches up against the White Sox' John Danks. Dempster has been brilliant lately, finally looking like he did for most of 2008 as he's given up a total of one earned run in his last three starts covering 18 innings. Six of the last nine games played between these two have gone under the total as have seven of the Cubs last nine home games and 22 of their last 30 overall. Take the 'under'.