Teddy Covers
Detroit Tigers @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Detroit hasn’t suffered any extended losing streaks this season, in large part because their starting pitching has been good enough to carry them through any offensive slumps. On the night after Justin Verlander’s extended string of excellence finally ended, look for Edwin Jackson to return the Tigers to their winning ways this evening.
Jackson has been downright dominant since the beginning of May; 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last seven starts. Jackson has been equally dominant on the highway in 2009, entering tonight’s game with a 1.55 ERA, allowing less than a baserunner per inning in his seven previous road outings. Facing a Cardinals lineup held to three runs or less in nine of their last 13 and 28 of their last 47 games, look for another strong showing from Jackson tonight.
Todd Wellemeyer won 13 games for St Louis last year, while pitching a career high 191 innings. It’s clear that last year’s workload has affected the Cardinals righty here in 2009. His velocity is way down, his strikeouts are way down, his walks are up. Last year, opposing batters hit .245 against Wellemeyer. This year, they are hitting .307 against him. Wellemeyer has only one quality start in his last seven trips to the hill, and he’s been hit extremely hard in each of his last two outings. The Cardinals are underdogs at home tonight for a reason….. 2* Take Detroit.
Tom Freese
Detroit Tigers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Detroit starter Edwin Jackson has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Tigers are 41-10 their last 51 Interleague games as favorites and they are 23-7 their last 30 games as road favorites. Detroit is 5-2 the last 7 starts made by Jackson. St. Louis is 5-11 in the last 16 starts made by Todd Wellemeyer vs. winning teams and they are 1-6 off a win. The Cardinals are 1-4 their last 5 home games and they are 3-7 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. PLAY ON DETROIT - (Jackson vs. Wellemeyer)
Murray Hill Mike
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Over
Consider the trends. Houston is 57-33 OVER revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs, 6-1 OVER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs and 8-4 OVER against left-handed starters.Astros starter Russ Ortiz is 76-45 OVER in road games, 6-1 OVER in night games and 5-1 OVER as an underdog of +125 to +175. Rangers starter Matt Harrison is 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher, 10-3 OVER at home when the total is 10 or higher and 10-4 OVER at home. Take the OVER
Dave Price
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +109
I look for the Brewers to pull off the sweep in Cleveland tonight behind Suppan, who is a brilliant 4-1 on the road this season. He's been at his best of late, going 2-0 with an ERA of just 2.12 over his last 3 starts. The Tribe sends the lefty Huff to the hill and that likely spells disaster as the Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Huff has an ERA of 7.39 on the season and that number looks mighty troublesome against one of the better road hitting teams in the NL. The Brewers have won 6 straight over the Indians and we'll back them again tonight as they make it 7 in a row.
Freddy Wills
LAA Angels vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -1½
With the Giants ace going in the rubber match I think ti is safe to say they should take this game. We don't get a lot of value on the money line here as it as shot up a bit to -170. SF is 21-11 at home this year and 9-3 in their last 12. This will be the first time the Angels see Lincecum and I think they'll struggle all day. Palmer on the hill for the Angels is not bad at all either, but he is not as good on the road with a 5.63 ERA. In his last start he allowed 10 Hits 3BB in 6IP while giving up just 3ER. He can not have that kind of start here today on the road. 7 of his 9 starts haven't gone more than 6.1IP which means it will go over to the bullpen which has been awful with a 9.00 ERA last 5. Even worse now that Scott Shields is out now so that won't give them much help.
Lincecum had an 8-1 record with a 2.62 ERA during the day last year and he's backed by a Giants bullpen at 1.89 ERA last 5. Giants are 12-4 in Lincecums last 16 home starts.
Lastly, 85.7% of the Giants home wins have been by more than 1 run and of the 17 losses the Angels have had on the road 70.5% of them have been by more than 1 run.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -155
The best home team in baseball, at 24-9 on the season, is worth the juice tonight against an A's club that is just 11-21 on the road and 1-6 in Interleague play. The A's have now lost 4 in a row and I just don't see them having enough offense to compete tonight. Oakland is averaging only 3.8 runs per game on the road, compared to the 5.0 LA is scoring at home, and it faces a pitcher in Kuroda with an ERA of only 1.64 at home this season. The Dodgers get the call
Robbie Gainous
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to sweep a three-game set on the road against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night. After coming back from a huge deficit on Monday night scoring six runs in the eighth inning to capture Game One 14 to 12 and then winning Game Two by a score of 7 to 5 they should be playing with a ton of confidence. The Brewers are 35-29 W/L (+4.8) on the season overall and 18-15 W/L (+5.4) on the highway. They are also in two positive situations facing a left-handed starter and playing under the lights both have been profitable for this Brewers team this season. Cleveland has struggled in most categories including overall posting a record of 29-37 W/L (-9.1) and 16-17 W/L at home for -4.6 units. Right handed starters have been a problem for the Indians as they are only 22-31 W/L (-10.6) and when playing at night they are 18-21 W/L (-5.0) all bad signs for an Indians team needing some help to turn their season around. The Brewers will send Jeff Suppan to the bump and over his last three trips he is 2-0 W/L with an ERA of 2.12. Suppan is 8-0 W/L (+8.6) after a game where he did not walk a batter in his last outing the last two seasons and he is also 5-0 W/L following a quality start in his last trip to the bump. The Indians will counter with David Huff who has posted a record of 2-1 W/L with an ERA of 5.19 over his last three trips to the hill. Cleveland is 5-11 W/L as a home favorite of -150 or less, 4-10 W/L versus the NL Central and 3-9 W/L their last 12 at home versus a team with a winning record. We expect the Brewers to continue their excellent play against the Indians and get the sweep in this series so back the visiting underdog as Suppan and the Brew Crew capture another win on Wednesday night. Graded Selection: 2* Milwaukee Brewers 6 Cleveland Indians 5
Ron Raymond
BOS / FLA Under 10.5
When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite - Last 4 years - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During a night game - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher - Allowed 2 runs or more AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent; The UNDER is 16-4-1 for the Home Favorite (BOSTON) in this role the L4Y. Play the UNDER.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
SDP (-130) vs SEA
The San Diego Padres have fallen on some hard times since their season-high 10-game winning streak ended last month. Their struggles against the AL have lasted a lot longer. The Padres will try to avoid extending their major league-record skid in interleague play to 13 Wednesday night when they continue a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park. The Padres hope to have better luck against Garrett Olson (1-1, 4.26 ERA). Olson, who has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation, returned to the starting staff Thursday at Baltimore. Chad Gaudin (2-5, 6.16), meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back from one of the worst starts of his career. The right-hander gave up eight runs and 10 hits over three innings in an 11-6 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Friday; I expect him to play well in front of the home town crowd tonight though. Look for the PADRES to improve to 5-3 (+1.1 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150!
IndianCowboy
Take Under 10 between the New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles
Tim Redding needs to pitch better or he is well aware that he will be sent back down to the minors as the Mets look to make a run at the division again. With Delgado and Reyes still out, it is vital for this team to get quality pitching. Redding had been roughed up for 13 runs in 8.2 innings a couple of games before. This has led to his current ballooned era of 6+. But, he has begun to pitch better giving up just 4 runs in his last 13 innings as he is 1-0-1 in his last 2 starts. I look for him to continue to pitch better as he heads to Baltimore and comes off a ND which eventually led to a Met loss. Uehara is a soild bounce-back pitcher and he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in his last start which led to a 3-6 loss to the Mariners. The Osaka native had pitched 6 of 8 quailty starts prior to that and he is not the type of pitcher to go back to back starts for non-quality. I look for this game to likely dip under today as the under is 12-5 for the Mets when the total is set at this range and the Under is 4-1-2 for Uehara when the total is set at this mark as well.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee +110 at CLEVELAND
Tonight go with Milwaukee to continue to get healthy at Cleveland's expense.
The Tribe blew Monday's 12-7 lead, and followed it up with another loss last night to the Brew Crew 7-5.
Jeff Suppan has won back-to-back starts in which he has allowed just 2 runs to score in his last 12 innings of work. He is also 4-1 away from home this year.
His counterpart David Huff has also won his last pair of starts, but Huff's season ERA is a bloated 7.39, and the way Milwaukee is swinging the bats in this series, we feel Huff is going to be making an early exit tonight.
Milwaukee stands at 19-15 on the road this year, while Cleveland is just 16-18 at home.
We will go with the Brewers to make it 3 straight over the Tribe.
Play on Milwaukee.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Jeff Benton
Houston at TEXAS
We got back on track in the free-play department, as the Mariners pounded the Padres on Tuesday and covered the run line. I’m now 8-3 with complimentary plays over the past 11 days, and we’ll build on that tonight with another run-line play, this one on the Rangers over Houston.
To say that the Rangers have owned their Lone Star State rivals is an understatement. Last month, they swept a three-game series in Houston, outscoring the Astros 17-8. Then last night, Texas pounded out a 6-1 victory at home, meaning the Rangers’ last three wins against Houston have been of multiple-run variety.
Tonight, the Rangers send lefty Matt Harrison to the mound for his first start since May 25, as he’s been sidelined with shoulder inflammation. That shoulder issue likely was the main reason why Harrison got knocked around in his last two starts before going on the shelf (he gave up 12 runs and 20 hits in 10 innings). However, prior to that, Harrison had gone 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts, including back-to-back complete-game victories over the White Sox and Mariners
All reports out of Texas are that Harrison is healthy (he was solid in two rehab starts), and he should have little trouble with a punchless Astros lineup that’s batting just .219 in its last 10 games against left-handed pitching and has now scored two runs or fewer in five of its last seven games. Additionally, Houston is 1-5 in its last six against lefty starters and 8-18 in its last 26 interleague games.
Finally, I’m not buying into Astros starter Russ Ortiz at all. The aging veteran is 3-2 with a solid 3.48 ERA, but he’s given up a 43 hits and a whopping 29 walks in 44 innings, which tells me he’s been playing with fire all year. Tonight, he’s gonna get burned by Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz and the potent Rangers offense. Texas, which has won 13 of its last 18 as a favorite and is 21-13 at home this season, rolls large in this one.
3♦ TEXAS -1 1/2
Drew Gordon
Houston at TEXAS -145
Now on a 17-4 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including 5 straight with the Mariners over the Padres 5-0 Tuesday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Houston/Texas match-up.
I know full well critics of this play will argue the price is too steep to back the Rangers Matt Harrison, who's fresh off the DL and got rocked in his L2 starts before going out with shoulder inflammation. However, I'm confident it's well worth it, as the Rangers will take care of Russ Ortiz and the Astros tonight, and here's why:
First off, I believe a little time off was just what Harrison needed to get back on track. Remember guys, before those two awful starts, he had won 4 straight, including back-to-back complete games May 8th and 15th! While its true the Astros offense does hit lefties well, batting .299 against them on the road... Did you know they average only 3.3 runs per game in that spot!
Second, its Russ Ortiz who needs to worry, as the Rangers offense found their groove again last night, pummeling lefty Wandy Rodriguez for 6 runs in just 4 innings. We finally saw Kinsler get back on track, while Young and Byrd both looked good... And this is all bad news for Russ Ortiz, who may have looked good against the Cubs sputtering offense, but things will get a lot tougher in Arlington. Note, the Rangers are batting a solid .280 against righties at home, averaging 5.0 runs per game in that spot!
Bottom line, its no secret the Rangers have owned the Astros this season, winning all 4 meetings (3 in decided fashion). With the Rangers swinging the bats well again, and Harrison getting some time off to get his shoulder right, I expect the Rangers to continue their success against Houston Wednesday.
Take Texas behind Harrison over Houston and Ortiz in this MLB match up.
3♦ TEXAS
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit -120 at ST. LOUIS
How good has Edwin Jackson looked for the Tigers this season, posting a 6-3 mark and 2.24 ERA, strikign out 65 and walking just 23? This guy was labeled one of the Dodgers' stars of the future about six years ago and never really got the chance with Los Angeles.
Then he goes to Tampa Bay and has a horrendous 2007 but seems to get things figured out a bit in 2008, going 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA. Now he's really gotten it straightened out this year in Detroit and is looking like the star everyone projected he would be. He's allowed three earned runs in his last three starts, covering 22 innings in wins of the Orioles and Angels and a no-decision against the White Sox.
In Jackson's last three roadies, he's blanked two opponents and held the other team to two earned runs. He's only seen the Cardinals once in his career, and allowed two runs on seven hits in 7.1 innings.
The Tigers got stomped on Tuesday, 11-2, but they have fared very well against the Cardinals in recent years, winning five of the last seven meetings. Detroit is on further runs of 45-20 in interleague action, 16-5 as a favorite, 23-7 as a road favorite and 23-12 against N.L. Central teams. Meanwhile, St. Louis is just 1-4 in their last five home games, 4-7 in their last 11 overall and 2-5 as a home underdog.
Todd Wellemeyer (5-6, 5.50 ERA) is on the mound for the Cardinals and this guy has been beaten up in his last two outings. Thursday he allowed five runs on 11 hits in six innings at Florida and back on June 6 he gave up six runs on six hits in seven innings of a 10-1 loss at home to the Rockies. In three of his last four at home he's allowed four runs or more.
Jackson is our reason for going with the Tigers tonight. He's good and he's getting better every time he takes the mound. Play Detroit.
4♦ DETROIT
Karl Garrett
Tampa Bay at COLORADO
MLB total for you tonight, as I like the Rays-Rockies to stay UNDER the posted price.
Both David Price, and Aaron Cook have been throwing the aspirin effectively of late, as Price comes into this start having allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 16 innings of work, while Cook has allowed 2 earned runs in his last 14 frames on the hill.
Last night was a rather high-scoring game, but 5 of the Rockies last 8 games have landed UNDER the posted total.
You just get the feeling that after 16 combined runs last night, tonight is going to be the night we have a pitcher's duel.
G-Man on the UNDER tonight at Coors.
1♦ UNDER