SPORTS ADVISORS
Chicago Cubs (34-33) at Detroit (39-31)
The first-place Tigers hand the ball to rising rookie right-hander Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.54 ERA) for the middle game of a three-game set at Comerica Park against the Cubs, who will counter with righty Rich Harden (4-3, 5.27).
In Tuesday night’s opener, Detroit got a two-run, walk-off home run from Ryan Rayburn, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 5-4 victory. The Tigers have won five in row and are on additional streaks of 6-0 at home, 50-21 in interleague contests and a solid 41-12 when hosting National League clubs..
Chicago has now lost seven straight games in American League parks and is just 4-12 in its last 16 road games overall, but the Cubs are 4-1 in their last five interleague contests – all against the A.L. Central.
In this occasional rivalry, Detroit has won five straight meetings overall and seven of nine since 2000, but the visitor is 7-2 in that same timeframe.
The Tigers have won three in a row and eight of their last nine backing Porcello, with the 20-year-old going 7-1 with a 2.42 ERA in that stretch, allowing 14 runs in 52 innings. Last Thursday, he yielded three runs (one earned) on eight hits and two walks in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 road win over St. Louis. Detroit is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five home starts, where the youngster is 3-2 with a 4.22 ERA. This will be his first career start against Chicago.
The Cubs are 1-2 in Harden’s last three starts, following a five-game win streak behind the 27-year-old. Harden had his worst outing of the season last Friday at Wrigley Field, getting roughed up for seven runs on seven hits and five walks against Cleveland, but Chicago rallied from a 7-0 hole to post an 8-7 win in 10 innings. Chicago is 6-2 in Harden’s last eight outings overall and 7-2 in his last nine against winning teams.
Harden is 2-0 with a solid 2.84 ERA in three road starts this year, and he’s 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA in five career starts against Detroit.
The Cubs carry “under” trends of 21-10 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 10-3 against winning teams and 14-7 versus right-handed starters. Similarly, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 11-5 at home and 19-8 versus right-handed starters. However, six of the last seven Cubs-Tigers clashes have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT
Philadelphia (37-31) at Tampa Bay (37-35)
Last year’s World Series participants meet for Game 2 of a three-game series, with the Rays sending right-hander Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83 ERA) to the hill opposite the Phillies’ Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.28) at Tropicana Field.
Philadelphia picked up where it left off in the World Series on Tuesday, pounding Tampa Bay and young lefty David Price 10-1. The Phillies, who entered this series coming off a dismal 1-8 homestand, have baseball’s best road mark at 24-9, and they’re 38-16 in their last 54 roadies dating to last season. However, they’re still on a 10-19 nosedive in interleague road contests.
Despite last night’s defeat, Tampa Bay has won eight of its last 12 overall and is on further rolls of 79-33 at the Trop, 44-17 when hosting teams with a winning record, 4-1 in interleague home games and 5-2 against the N.L. East.
Philadelphia took out Tampa Bay in five games in last year’s Fall Classic, with the home team going 4-1. These squads have met 13 times since 2000, and the host has gone 9-4, with the Rays winning five of their last seven clashes at the Trop.
The Rays have lost four of five behind Garza, totaling just nine runs in those four setbacks. On Friday at Colorado, the right-hander allowed four runs on five hits (three homers) and two walks in a 4-3 loss. The 25-year-old is 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA in eight home starts this season, and in his lone career start against the Phillies, Garza got a no-decision in Game 3 of the World Series, allowing four runs on six hits (three homers) and two walks in six innings, with the Rays losing 5-4 in Philadelphia.
The Phillies have lost three in row with Blanton taking the ball, though he’s gotten no-decisions in all three contests. On Friday against Toronto, the beefy right-hander gave up four runs on nine hits (two homers) and two walks in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-7 home loss. In four starts prior to that, Blanton had allowed just six total earned runs over 27 innings (2.00 ERA).
Blanton is 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA in six road outings this year, and he’s 2-3 with a 6.05 ERA in eight career regular-season starts against Tampa Bay, all when he was with Oakland. Additionally, he got the win in a 10-2 home blowout of the Rays in Game 4 of the World Series. With Blanton throwing, the Phils are on runs of 14-6 overall, 9-3 against winning teams and 4-1 on the highway.
The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-2 overall (all in interleague play), 8-4-1 at home, 24-10-1 in interleague home games, 5-0 behind Garza and 5-0-1 in Garza’s last six interleague starts. Likewise, Philadelphia is riding “under” streaks of 17-9-1 in interleague play, 6-1 in A.L. ballparks and 5-2-1 on artificial turf.
Finally, despite last night’s slugfest, the under is 4-2-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Tampa Bay, including 2-0 in last year’s Fall Classic.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Boston at Washington
Despite a 20-48 record, the Nationals look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 0-4 in Jon Lester's last four starts against teams with a losing record. Washington is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Nats favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+150)
Game 951-952: St. Louis at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Thompson) 14.525; NY Mets (Nieve) 15.816
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over
Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.494; Toronto (Richmond) 14.961
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.342; Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.755
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+160); Over
Game 957-958: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 15.928; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.660
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-135); Over
Game 959-960: Boston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.067; Washington (Stammen) 15.142
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+150); Under
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 15.160; Detroit (Porcello) 16.610
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under
Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 14.636; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.599
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Under
Game 965-966: Baltimore at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 16.570; Florida (Nolasco) 15.631
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+135); Under
Game 967-968: Minnesota at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.672; Milwaukee (Looper) 14.189
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Over
Game 969-970: Kansas City at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.311; Houston (Oswalt) 14.045
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+165); Under
Game 971-972: LA Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.486; White Sox (Floyd) 15.054
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Under
Game 973-974: Texas at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 14.144; Arizona (Haren) 15.146
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-170); Under
Game 975-976: Colorado at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 16.994; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over
Game 977-978: San Francisco at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Johnson) 14.494; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.654
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 979-980: San Diego at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 14.595; Seattle (Morrow) 15.955
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over
Craig Trapp
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Records
Boston Red Sox 43-27, 18-17 away (Lester 5-6, 4.69 ERA)
Washington Nationals 20-48, 12-24 home (Stammen 1-2, 4.76 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
-Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 overall.
-Red Sox are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
-Nationals are 2-6 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
This is a very easy matchup that will see WASH just get run out of the stadium. Lester has been downright unstoppable in his last 4 games only giving up an average of 1.5 runs a game. BOS has been tearing the cover off the ball and today will see them do the same. The Run Line is a great play with the hottest team in the AL verse the worst team in the league. Boston takes care of business with great pitching from Lester and timely hitting. SCORE BOS 8 - WASH 1
Red Dog Sports
Boston at Washington
Play: Under 9
Washington has 23 unders and 7 overs in their last 30 games while Boston has 23 unders, 9 overs and 4 pushes in their last 36 games. Jon Lester's ERA in his last 3 is 1.71 with 0 overs and 3 unders. Stammen has an ERA of 3.78 his last 3 with 0 overs and 3 unders. These two have combined for 58 overs and 70 unders this year. Play the under on Wednesday.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Dodgers/White Sox UNDER
The Dodgers and White Sox resume their three-game series in when Randy Wolf takes on Gavin Floyd in Chicago. The old grey Wolf has won 7 of his last 8 starts, including each of his last 3 road starts. Meanwhile, Floyd has never lost a team start at home in June in his MLB career, going 8-0. With Wolf 9-21 UNDER in his last thirty starts during the first half of the season the last two years and the White Sox 4-15 UNDER in June this season, look for this game to stay UNDER the total here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers -105
The Dodgers won the opening game of their three-game set against the host White Sox on Tuesday night by a score of 5 to 2. LA has won six of their last eight games overall and look to grab game two and the series win on Wednesday night behind starter Randy Wolf. Wolf is 3-2 W/L on the year with an ERA of 3.29 in his fifteen starts this season and his teammates have managed a 10-5 W/L record in those fifteen trips to the bump. Wolf is 3-1 W/L on the highway with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.015. The Sox will send right-hander Gavin Floyd to the hill with his 4-5 W/L and ERA of 4.65 in fourteen starts this season. He is 2-2 W/L at home with an ERA of 2.68. Floyd has struggled against the Dodgers posting a record of 0-3 W/L with an ERA of 10.50 and a WHIP of 2.417. Chicago is 16-18 W/L at home this season -7.0 units while the Dodgers are 21-14 W/L on the road for a profit of +9.1 units. Los Angeles is 20-7 (+13.8) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 2 seasons and Wolf is 12-2 (+10.6) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings the last 2 seasons. We will back the better team laying a short price or possibly as an underdog as the Dodgers get the win and take the series with wins in the first two games of a three-game set.
Graded Selection: 2* Los Angeles Dodgers 4 Chicago White Sox 3
Tom Freese
La Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
The Dodgers are 10-4 UNDER thei last 14 games vs. righty starters and they are 10-3 UNDER vs. a pitcher with WHIP of over 1.30. Los Angeles is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 road games and they are 5-2 UNDER with Randy Wolf on the mound as an underdog. The White Sox are 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games as home favorites and they are 10-1-1 UNDER vs. NL West teams. Chicago is 7-2 UNDER in Game 2 of a series and they are 5-1 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Gavin Floyd. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Floyd vs. Wolf)
Dave Cokin
Indians @ Pirates
Play: Pirates
The Indians finally won a game Tuesday night, although they tried their best to give it away at the finish line. Carl Pavano has been lit up in his last two starts and may not be 100% physically, so that pathetic Tribe bullpen figures to be involved here. The Pirates are on a losing streak, which certainly makes laying a price dicey. But Duke has been very strong at home and I expect the Bucs to even up the series with the win this evening.
JIM FEIST
TEXAS RANGERS VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take: TEXAS RANGERS
The Rangers lost four straight to National League teams, but that's not cause for concern. This is still a strong all around team, one in first place in the AL West over Los Angeles. Vicente Padilla is throwing well, at 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA the last three starts. Now they face the last place Diamondbacks, a team that can't hit. And starter Dan Haren has not thrown well in his career against these Rangers, with a 4.50 ERA against them and a 3-4 record. Play the Rangers.
John Martin
1 Unit on Cardinals/Mets Under 9
With nearly the entire Mets’ offense on the DL, this one is a no-brainer. Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes are all riding the pine with various injuries, and the Mets simply cannot account for these losses. New York was shut out last night, 3-0, by the Cardinals in a game where they managed to record just 2 hits. Fortunately for New York, they have Fernando Nieve taking the ball tonight. Nieve is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA on the season. He’s got a tough opponent in Brad Thompson for St. Louis, who is 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA this season and 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA on the road. Without question, this is going to be the ultimate pitcher’s duel. The UNDER is 8-2 in Thompson’s last 10 starts overall. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Cards and Mets in New York. Cash in with the UNDER 9 runs.
Carlo Campanella
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Washington had won 4 of their last 5 games heading into this series with Boston, but the Red Sox will put an end to that short winning streak, especially on Wednesday night as they start John Lester on the mound. Lester has allowed just 4 Earned Runs in his last 21 Innings Pitched and will make quick work of the Washington offense with a .258% team Batting Average. Lester will get plenty of run support from a Red Sox crew that's won 8 of their last 11 games, while scoring 5 Runs or more in 7 of those 11 games! Take the road Favorite as Lester handed them a 9-3 loss last time he faced them and went 6 innings with only 1 Earned Run scored.
7* Play On Boston
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners -140
Reasons why the Mariners win:
1.) Coming off a rare home loss to the Padres last night, Seattle will be hungry to get back into the win column Wednesday. They should have no problem getting the job done against Josh Geer who is 0-2 with a 6.99 ERA on the road this season through 5 starts, and 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Padres are 0-5 in Geer’s 5 road starts this season and that streak won’t end Wednesday.
2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This is a 46-12 ML System hitting 79.3% over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Mariners at home.
Black Widow
1* on Detroit Tigers -130
We have two starters headed in opposite directions here. Rick Porcello, the 20-year-old phenom for Detroit has emerged on the scene to the tune of an 8-4 record with a 3.54 ERA this season. Rich Harden has hit a brick wall recently, going 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA over his last 3 starts for the Cubs. Detroit owns the best record in Interleague play of any team in baseball. The Tigers are 41-12 in their last 53 Interleague contests. Detroit is 8-1 in Porcello’s last 9 starts overall, and now 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The Tigers are starting to play up to their potential and we’ll ride ‘em while they’re hot. Take the Tigers on the Money Line.
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis at N.Y. METS -105
We handed you a FREE winner on Tuesday with the Dodgers over the White Sox in Chicago and today we're giving you a comp winner on the Mets as they host the Cardinals in New York.
The banged up Mets' lineup will get the job done tonight against the Cardinals and part-time starter/part-time reliever Brad Thompson (2-2, 3.89 ERA). On th hill for New York is young Fernando Nieve (2-0, 1.84) who has looked great in his two starts.
Called up on June 5, Nieve immediately went and beat the Yankees in their new stadium and last time out he gave up one run in six innings of a 5-3 win over the Rays. So in his two outings, he's allowed three runs on seven hits in 12.2 innings. Not bad at all.
Thompson has made four starts this season and last time out he gave up four runs on five hits in seven innings at Kansas City, but his offense was strong, getting him a 10-5 win.
The Mets' offense banged out the hits on Monday, but couldn't get anything going on Tuesday. They are 12-4 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. St. Louis is 2-5 in its last seven against the N.L. East and 2-5 in their last seven third games of a series.
New York is going to get to Thompson early and we're going to cash in. Play the Mets in this one.
2♦ N.Y. METS
Dominic Fazzini
Cincinnati at TORONTO -140
The last time Bronson Arroyo faced the Blue Jays, he had a nightmarish performance on the mound.
Arroyo (8-5, 5.16 ERA) gave up six runs in the first inning and four more without getting an out in the second as the Reds lost 14-1. That was last June 24. Now, one year later, Arroyo gets another shot at Toronto.
He will be opposed by Jays rookie right-hander Scott Richmond (5-4, 3.79), who is coming off the best start of his career. Richmond allowed one run on five hits and struck out 11 in eight innings last Wednesday in a 7-1 victory at Philadelphia. He has pitched since then, however, allowing a two-run, walk-off homer Saturday during the 12th inning of a 5-3 loss at Washington after pitching a perfect 11th.
Arroyo was solid in his last outing, allowing two runs on two hits in 6 2/3 innings against the White Sox for his first win since May 27. But he has had a tendency in his career to follow a good start with a bad one, and his career mark against Toronto is 2-4 with a 5.84 ERA, although that latter number is a little inflated from his start last year.
The Reds have lost three straight and now face a fresh Richmond, who got his start pushed back one day after his emergency relief outing. Toronto hit three homers Tuesday in its 7-5 victory over Cincinnati, and now its formidable offense gets another shot at Arroyo.
I’m not saying the Jays are going to score in double digits again. But I am saying that they are going to win. Go with Toronto.
2♦ TORONTO