Ben Burns
Cleveland Indians at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates took the loss last night but I won't be surprised if they're able to build some momentum from yesterday's late rally. Down 5-0, the Pirates refused to give up and rallied with four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Even though the defeat was Pittsburgh's fifth straight loss, note that the first four losses had come on the road. The Pirates are still a solid 17-13 at home this season while the Indians are just 14-23 on the road. Additionally, note that prior to this series, Cleveland had lost six straight games (and allowed 50 runs in those six defeats) before earning the 5-4 victory yesterday.
The Indians' bullpen, which entered the series with a combined 5.35 ERA on the road, almost did them in again on Tuesday and they've got more pitching problems than just the pen tonight. Carl Pavano gets the start for the Tribe and he's been awful in his last two starts. Indeed, he's allowed 15 earned runs on 20 hits in his last 9 2/3 innings. Pavano's neck and shoulder have been bothering him and it looks like he's coming back down to his "norm" after enjoying some surprising success in April and May this season. Pavano already has made 14 starts this season and, keep in mind; he has not started more than 17 games since the 2004 season. Injuries and overall ineffectiveness have been an issue for Pavano ever since his fine '04 season when he pitched for the Marlins. It looks like the "wheels are coming off" for Pavano on the '09 season right now.
While Pavano appears to be in "play against" mode right now, Zach Duke of the Pirates is off back to back quality starts. In fact, Duke has produced a quality start in 10 of his 14 outings this season. The southpaw has been very strong at home where he's 5-2 with a stellar 2.77 ERA and 1.058 WHIP. The Indians have only seen him once (at Cleveland in 2006) in his career and they managed just four hits in seven innings against him. Consider Pittsburgh
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox June
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles owns the best record in baseball. Not just their overall record, but also since Manny Ramirez has been serving his suspension. Last night's win extended their "non-Manny" mark to 26-16! They're also 14-5 in their last 19 road games. Tonight, they face a pitcher they have absolutely owned. Gavin Floyd has lost all three of his career starts against Los Angeles. He's been smacked around for 14 earned runs and 29 base runners in just 12 innings of work. That adds up to a 10.50 ERA and 2.42 WHIP, to go along with a .339 BAA. Making matter tougher for Floyd is the fact that he's not likely to see a lot of help from his offense. The White Sox average under 3 1/2 rpg at home, hitting less than .220. They're 3-9 in their last 12 home games, scoring a grand total of just 34 runs, or 2.83 rpg. In fact, the ChiSox have scored two runs or less in half of those outings. That's great news for Dodger lefty Randy Wolf. The veteran hurler is 3-1 in seven road starts this season, sporting a strong 2.28 ERA and 0.99 WHIP! The red-hot Dodgers are 7-1 in his last eight outings and I expect another win tonight. I'm backing the Dodgers on Wednesday.
BIG AL
Twins-Brewers Over 9
Minnesota has found it tough on the road and Milwaukee's pitching is on the decline. That adds up to an easy Over tonight when the Brewers host the Twins in Beer City.
Our Wednesday MLB interleague selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers going over the total at Miller Park.
This is an important series for both teams, especially for the Brewers who were in first place in their division when interleague play began but now have fallen behind the Cardinals due to their poor performances against the AL teams over the past couple of weeks. The biggest reason for the regression has been the decline of Milwaukee's starting pitching.
Dave Bush (tentatively scheduled to pitch tomorrow afternoon's game) is a perfect example, going from a starter who could seemingly do no wrong in April and the first half of May to now being winless since May 19, and not throwing a single quality start during that time.
Tonight's starter, Braden Looper, has also fallen on hard times as he is winless in his four June starts with a 7.97 ERA and a .322 opponents batting average. It is because of these types of performances that the Brewers are said to be shopping players like outfielder Corey Hart to other teams in search of some quality arms for the second half.
Twins righthander Nick Blackburn has been pitching very well of late and just threw his first career complete game in his last start. But before you get too excited, consider that that latest gem was against the Pirates – perhaps the weakest offense right now in baseball – and the two starts before that were in Oakland and Seattle, two of the most pitcher-friendly places in the Major Leagues.
Take the Over
LT Profits Sports Group
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets
The Mets are now without Beltran, Delgado and Reyes, and Brad Thompson has looked good for the Cardinals vs. stronger lineups. Nieve has also been sharp, so go Under here.
The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the New York Mets 3-0 here last night, and we look for a similarly low scoring affair this evening.
The Mets lineup is basically comprised of David Wright and a bunch of nobodies right now, as Carlos Beltran joined Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes on the Disabled List yesterday. Thus, the fact that the Mets are batting an ordinary .259 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games is not much of a surprise, and it is goof news for Cardinals starter Brad Thompson, who has a nice 3.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in four starts this year.
The Mets may have uncovered a gem in Fernando Nieve, as he has looked very poised and polished while allowing a grand total of three runs and seven hits in 12.2 innings over two starts since his call-up. If he keeps up this pace, it may be hard to remove him from the rotation once the injured John Maine comes off of the Disabled List. He should be doubly tough on a St. Louis lineup that has never faced him before.
Now this may not be an exact replica of that 3-0 game last night, but we do not exactly see these clubs lighting up the scoreboard here either.
Pick Cardinals/Mets Under 9
Matt Fargo
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Pick: Kansas City Royals
The Royals took Game One of this series last night and they can use that to build some momentum following their recent five-game losing streak. That came right after a four-game winning streak and Kansas City has been a very streaky team this season. The offense has improved of late, scoring five runs or more in seven of their last nine games. The Astros fells to 16-19 at home with that defeat on Tuesday so the home field edge is not a big advantage this season. They are big favorites tonight based on the fact Roy Oswalt is pitching but he has been far from a solid proposition this season. He is having one of his worst seasons and has been extremely inconsistent from the start. He is coming off a complete game but he allowed five runs while throwing a season-high 126 pitches. He is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA at home and Houston is just 3-4 in his seven home starts. Oswalt is allowing opponents to hit .287 at Minute Maid Park on the year. He will be opposed by Luke Hochevar who is coming off another poor performance but only two of his six starts this season have been really rough ones. The Royals are 3-3 in his games this season and following a horrible performance in his opening start, his ERA is a more respectable 4.60 in his last five outings with two of those being quality starts. Houston is hitting just .252 over its last 10 games including a mere .237 against right-handed pitching. Conversely, the Royals are hitting .267 and .269 respectively. The Royals are 7-2 in their last nine Interleague games against a team with a losing record while the Astros are 1-6 in their last seven Interleague games against a team with a losing record. The value is in place for a big underdog winner tonight. 3* Kansas City Royals
MTi Sports
Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Nationals are 0-15 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and The Red Sox are 5-0 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and 5-0 on the road when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost. Lay the price.
Karl Garrett
Boston -170 at WASHINGTON
The G-Man is now on a 6-2 comp play run the last 8 days.
For Wednesday night, I like a few runs to be scored in Washington, as the Red Sox, and Nats to some teeing off on the starters.
Boston starter Jon Lester is capable of working a no-hitter, that is for sure, but remember, the southpaws season ERA is still close to 5 for the year, and stands at 5.36 on the road this year.
Washington counters with rookie Craig Stammen who just worked 6 scoreless against the Yankees, but has a 6.75 ERA in his 3 home starts this year.
Last night it was an 11-3 Boston rout, as both teams have now been OVER the total in their last pair of games.
G-Man likes the HIGH again tonight.
On a warm summer night in DC, take the OVER between Boston and Washington!
3♦ OVER
Jr Tips
LA DODGERS vs. CHI-SOX
The Los Angeles Dodgers (47-24) opened the series with a 5-2 win Tuesday and have the best record in the majors (26-16) since Ramirez's suspension.Loney homered for the third time in four games Tuesday with a two-run shot in the second inning against the White Sox (33-37) who fell for the ninth time in their last 12 at home. Chicago starts Gavin Floyd (4-5, 4.65 ERA), who is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last six starts. The right-hander was denied victories in his last two outings as the bullpen failed to hold the lead. On Thursday against the Chicago Cubs, Floyd allowed one run in seven innings before the White Sox bullpen gave up five in the final two. Floyd is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA in two interleague starts this season. Randy Wolf takes the mound for Los Angeles. Wolf (3-2, 3.29) didn't receive a decision after surrendering one run and five hits over six innings in his last outing although Los Angeles has won seven of Wolf's last eight starts. Chicago is batting .217 and has the fewest runs at home (119) in the AL. Tonight will be a pitchers dual as 3-4 runs will get the win.
TAKE UNDER 9
Evan Altemus
Baltimore at Florida
Play: Florida -145
Florida is not being priced correctly, as they should be a much higher favorite based on their pitching advantage. Ricky Nolasco has pitched very well this season, including recently. However, his opposing starting pitcher, Baltimore's Jason Berken, has struggled in his first few starts. He has a 1.88 WHIP and an ERA of over 10 in his last 3 outings. The line-ups are essentially even, with Baltimore even having a slight edge, but Florida has a huge advantage with Nolasco taking the mound. In addition, the Orioles are horrible on the road this season with an 11-21 record. Look for the Marlins to get the win.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
The Tigers won the opener last night 5-4 with Edwin Jackson outdueling Carlos Zambrano. Tonight Detroit will go with rookie Rick Porcello. The Tigers have won eight of his last nine starts. Chicago is just 2-11 as an underdog this season. Detroit is 15-5 following a win this season and 25-11 as a favorite. Go with Detroit.
Play on: Detroit
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -136
Florida snapped Baltimore's 5-game winning streak in extras to take the wind out of its sails last night. Now I like the Fish to roll tonight against the struggling Jason Berken. He is 0-1 on the road with an ERA of 24.32 and he is 0-2 over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 10.68. While the Marlins' Nolasco has had his struggles as well this season, he has things going in the right direction now, posting a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, the Marlins are 6-0 in Nolasco's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. The Orioles are just 16-36 in their last 52 road games, 12-30 in their last 42 Wednesday games, and 12-25 in their last 37 during game 2 of a series. Marlins get the call at home at a solid price.
Freddy Wills
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Okay I just can't help, but take this as a 2DIME FREE PLAY! We are paying a lot of juice for this one. That's okay because I'm that confident it will be a winner and since we don't put premium picks of anything higher than -165 juice out there this one will be a free play!
Haren 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA in Inter League play and 8-0, 2.57ERA in his last 9 starts. He will go here today against a Texas team that is struggling with their bats. In their last 5 the Rangers are hitting .196 and scoring just 1.76 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP. It is a bad time to face one of the leagues best.
Vincente Padilla will be on the mound for the Rangers and he'll go up a Diamondbacks team that put 8 on the board last night which I think they will have success again tonight. They are scoring 5.11 runs per 9 in their last 5 vs. RHP and the Rangers have lost 5 straight scoring just 12 runs.
Take Diamondbacks -175
IndianCowboy
Take Under 8.5 between the Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers
The Cubs and Tigers faced off yesterday and the Tigers continue their winning ways now having won 5 straight. They are now 39-31 after sweeping the Brewers at home and now defeating the Cubs in game 1 of their series. Porcello has been a huge addition to their pitching staff as he has maintained a 3.5 era roughly throughout the year and is 8-4 to boot. He is 7-1-1 over his last 9 starst and has given up just 2 runs in just under 13 innings. He has struggled at home a bit lately but I expect him to have a sound start today as he is paired with Harden who comes off one of his worst starts of the year. Harden gave up 7 runs in in 5 innings against Cleveland but the Cubs still managed to win that game 8-7. Nevertheless, I think Harden likely steps up a bit today and aids his increased era in this start. The Under is 4-1 for the Tigers when the total is set at this mark and the Under is 5-0 in Fletcher's last 5 games behind the plate.
Vernon Croy
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Minnesota Twins are just 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are are 0-10 in Nick Blackburn's (6-2, 3.09 ERA) last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record and they are also just 1-4 in Blackburn's last 5 starts as a favorite on the road. The Twins are just 1-8 in their last 9 games as a road favorite and they are just 3-11 in Blackburn's last 14 road starts. The Brewers opponents are hitting just .234 against them at home this season and Braden Looper (5-4, 5.21) should get plenty of run support tonight but even if he does get into trouble this Brewers bullpen has pitched great at home with an ERA of just 2.73 over 105.7 innings. Blackburn got lit up in his only start against the Brewers last season with an ERA of 11.56 while giving up 4 homeruns and lasting just 4.7 innings. Grab the value with the Milwaukee Brewers as Wednesday's MLB Free Play.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas Rangers +165
Texas is struggling, having lost 5 in a row, but it is showing some nice value at this underdog price when you consider that Arizona is only 3-6 its last 9. The Rangers are in good hands with Padilla on the hill tonight. They are 8-3 in all of his starts this season and 4-1 in his road starts. He has really hit his stride lately, posting an ERA of just 2.50 over his last 3 starts. The Rangers are an impressive 5-1 in Padilla's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200. While Haren has pitched very well recently, he is just 3-4 when starting against Texas with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.357 in his career. Plus, the Diamondbacks are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Rangers for a unit showing great value here.