GoodFella
Pittsburgh Pirates -127
Carl Pavano takes the ball for the Tribe tonight, & he has flat out struggled in his L/3 starts, as he's 7.23 ERA & 1.446 WHIP inidcate. Right shoulder soreness pushed back Pavano's turn in the rotation to Wednesday, and he'll be looking to help the Indiana get consecutive wins for the first time since June 11-12. Pavano is 3-4 with a 4.69 ERA in 10 starts against the Pirates, whom he hasn't faced since 2004 while with Florida. For Pittsburgh, Zach Duke takes the ball, & he has been outstanding at home this year. Duke has a 2.77 ERA & a WHIP of 1.058 at home this season. Cleveland is just 1-6 in their L/7 games, & they have a road bullpen ERA of 5.61 & a WHIP of 1.576. The Indians' relief corps is 0-4 with an 8.78 ERA in its last seven games, with Wood's save Tuesday the team's first in four opportunities in that stretch. The Tribe is also just 4-9 in Interleague play this season, while the Pirates are 4-6 in Interleague. The only good thing I see about Cleveland tonight, is they do average 6.1 runs per game off left-handed starters this season, which is .9 runs more than their 5.2 runs per game they average on the season. The Pirates have a team bullpen ERA of 3.74 & a WHIP of 1.361 at home this season, so I see a definite edge in both the starting pitching and in the bullpen tonight. I suggest playing the Pirates at home, as I see them getting the win tonight.
Tony George
Twins -115
Off a big win last night on the road against the Brew Crew, the entire universe is on Milwaukee tonight, but when one looks at what counts in this one, I like the Twins. Minnesota is the KING of Interleauge play at 51-17 their last 68 Interleauge games, AMAZING STAT! As my friend on the ESPN radio podcast says daily, they are a Cabbage Maker for their backers.
They also own this series lately, going 8-3 the last 11 meetings including last nights win. Nick Blackburn their starter tonight is 6-2 on the year with a 3.08 ERA and an ERA in his last 3 plate appearances of 1.88. The Twins bullpen is not stellar, but the Brew Crew have managed a 7.68 ERA from their bullpen in the last 3 games. WOW! Minnesota has the better hitting, power, defense and starting pitcher, and at -115, is a take on the road tonight.
Play: Minnesota
Rocketman
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh
Cleveland is now 30-42 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 31-39 record this season. Cleveland is 8-21 this year after a win. Cleveland is 19-30 last 3 years in Interleague play. Cleveland bullpen has a 5.61 ERA on the road this year. Pittsburgh is batting .291 at home this year as a team. Carl Pavano has a 5.73 ERA overall this year and has a 7.23 ERA his last 3 starts. Zach Duke is 7-5 with a 3.18 ERA overall this year and 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
Wunderdog
Boston at Washington
Pick: Washington +1.5
It has been a challenging year for Jon Lester, who looked like he was ready for a long career of winning big but has stumbled and taken a step back in '08. He is just 5-6 on the season and has pitched to a 4.69 ERA. More importantly, the Red Sox are 5-9 in his 14 starts if facing a -1.5 runline, as they are here. The Red Sox have also been 0-4 in his last four starts vs teams with a losing record. The Nats have played much better of late and have been 4-2 vs the AL East in their past six games and, while the Red Sox are mopping up at Fenway, they have proven to be vulnerable on the road. I'll go with the Nationals here on the runline.
LARRY NESS
TOR (-145) vs CIN
Toronto lost 2-1 (11 inn) and 5-3 (12 inn) to Washington on Friday and Saturday but bounced back Sunday with a 9-4 win. The Jays kept their momentum going on Tuesday by opening a 6-0 lead vs the Reds, on their way to a 7-5 win. That gives Toronto FIVE wins in its last seven games and while the Jays scored just four times in those two loses, the team has tallied 39 times in the five wins (7.8 RPG). Bronson Arroyo starts for the Reds and last June 24th at Rogers Centre vs the Blue Jays, suffered his worst outing as a major leaguer. Arroyo gave up six runs in the first inning and four more without getting an out in the second before exiting in the Reds' 14-1 loss. The 10 ERs (on 11 hits), were the most Arroyo had ever allowed. Arroyo is not having much of a season this year, although he is 8-5 in 14 starts (Cincy is 8-6). His ERA is 5.16 on the year and since winning 4-0 May 1 at Pittsburgh (8 IP / 4 hits), he's made four road starts, going 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA. His mound opponent is Scott Richmond. Richmond got off to a terrific start in '09. going 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his first five starts (team was 5-0). However, from May 8-June 12, his ERA ballooned to 5.06 in seven appearances (five starts). He was 0-3 and the team 1-4 in those five starts, as three times he allowed five ERs in a single game. He got back on track in his last start (6/17 at Philly), going eight innings while allowing five hits and one ER along with 11 strikeouts. Unfortunately, Richmond was used this past Saturday in relief, allowing a walkoff two-run HR in the 12th inning of a 5-3 loss at Washington. The Jays continue to be solid at home (22-13) and after a strong start away from home (13-5). the Reds are now 17-18 on the year, having lost 13 of their last 17 road games. Take the Blue Jays.
Lenny Del Genio
Cleveland Indians at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
In this battle of terrible teams, we?re siding with the underdog coming off an important 5-4 win last night. The Cleveland bullpen has been atrocious this year no doubt (8.78 ERA L7 Games), but they were able to hold on yesterday as the Pirates dropped to 7-34 this season when they score four runs or less. The only situation the Indians have played well in this year is when facing lefties, having turned a nice profit thanks in large part to a 6.1 runs per game scoring average. Despite a 14-23 record, the Tribe actually hits MUCH better away from home (.277, 5.7 runs scored per game). The Pirates are a horrific -$1780 at home vs. righties this year. Take Cleveland.
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
282 - 184 run 60 % 31-14 run here
WED: Seattle Mariners
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Free Selection from Mike Wynn
MLB Minnesota w/Blackburn -120 Over Milwaukee
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Free Selection from Platinum Plays
MLB: CHICAGO CUBS + 115 Over the Detroit Tigers
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8)
Mike Rose
Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 9
RHP Joe Blanton gets the starting nod from manager Charlie Manuel on Wednesday evening. The righty was touched up for four runs in 5.1 innings pitched against Toronto in his last outing, but it was really his worst outing in about a month. Though the Phillies havent won any of Blantons L/3 starts, they had won six of his previous seven before that. Since a rough month of April, Blanton has settled down dramatically. He is 4-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Save for walking six Nats on May 15th, the righty hasnt walked more than two batters in a game since April 27th, and he has a fantastic K/9 ratio of 7.87 for the season. Blanton hasnt had much luck against the Rays in his career though, as he owns a 6.05 ERA in eight career starts.
Manager Joe Maddon will look to get back in the win column with arguably his strongest pitcher, RHP Matt Garza. Garza is only 4-5 on the season and hasnt won a game since May 16th, but he also has only gotten more than three runs of support from his team once in that stretch. In fact, that 4 is the magic number for the Rays when Garza is on the hill. They are 6-0 this year when scoring at least four runs for the righty, but 0-8 when they dont. After two straight seasons where the home run ball wasnt an issue, the righty has been lit up for eight dingers in his L/5 starts, which has Maddon very concerned. Still, hes primarily a ground ball pitcher, and has a very low WHIP (1.20) and opposing batting average (.216) to show for it.
Both arms have the ability of throwing a lot of donuts on the board in a hurry, so expect to see runs in this game be at a premium, particularly off of the starters. Garza has only had one of his L/9 starts go over the total, and that streak should stay intact tonight against a team that couldnt hit its way out of a paper bag before exploding for ten runs last night.
Mr A's
Boston Red Sox -170
Florida Marlins -140
MLB Computer Picks
Boston Red Sox -170
Philadelphia Phillies +160
Seattle Mariners -135
The Spread
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Pick: St. Louis
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
Chi Cubs are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: Chicago
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Pick: Philadelphia
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Under 8½
Texas has been an under team all month having landed under the posted total in 15 of their 19 games thus far.The Rangers have several under trends applying to them in this game they are 7-18 under vs losing teams,3-10u in interleague play and have gone under in 3 of the 4 games they were installed as a road dog from +150 to +175.Tonight they face one of the toughest pitchers in the majors in Dan Haren.In Harens home starts he has a 1.87 era,going under 5 of the 7 games.Over his last 3 starts he has an even better 1.57 era.Tonight Haren opposes another hot pitcher Vincente Padilla for the Rangers.Padilla has been solid over his last 3 starts with a 2.50 era all of which went under the total.Texas is hitting just .212 scoring 3.3 runs over their last 7 games.The capper for this under selection is Umpire Gorman is behind the plate tonight and over his last 12 games the under has come in 10 of 11 times.For tonight take the Under 8.5 runs in the Texas-Arizona game.
Drew Gordon
Chi. Cubs +105 at DETROIT
Now on a 20-8 roll with the plays I'm giving away. For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. Cubs/Detroit match-up.
I know Detroit-backers are all excited about getting the chance to ride Porcello and the red-hot Tigers once again here tonight. However, before you break the bank, I want you to consider a couple things:
A. This is going to be a tougher match up than expected, opposed by Rich Harden. True, he got lit up in his last start, but that's even more reason to believe he'll be more motivated/focused in this contest. Not to mention, the Cubs veteran righty has been much more effective on the road, going 2-0 with an excellent 2.84 ERA. Look for a tremendous bounce back effort Wednesday.
B. Yes, the Tigers have won 5 straight, but let's not get too carried away. This is still a team that hits lefties much better than righties, especially at home, where they bat just .260 against right-handed starters. Cubs offense isn't great either, but fact remains, Porcello has not been great at Comerica, where his ERA is more than a run higher than on the road (5-2, 3.02 ERA away vs. 3-2, 4.22 at home).
And finally C. You always have to take perception into account. The Tigers have won 5 straight, and 8 of Porcello's last 9 starts... Yet, they are only modest favorites in this position, why? The answer is simple, the guys in Vegas aren't stupid, and they know Harden will be looking to bounce back strong in this contest. I've told you once and I'll tell you again: If something looks to good to be true, it probably is! In the end, look for the Cubbies to get their redemption tonight, coming off a bitter loss yesterday, as they ride the "road-warrior" Harden to the W in this one!
Take the Chicago Cubs behind Harden over Detroit and Porcello in this MLB match up.
2♦ CHI. CUBS
Jeff Benton
Kansas City +155 at HOUSTON
We scored a 5♦ free-play winner with the Royals over the Astros last night, and we’ll come right back with the same play tonight, this time taking Kansas City as a juicy underdog.
This play comes down to one simple belief: You cannot trust Roy Oswalt to lay this kind of price right now. Yes, the Astros ace was once considered a Top 5 pitcher in the game, but no longer. This season, he’s been maddeningly inconsistent, so much so that he’s had consecutive quality starts just once in 15 starts this season.
Going back to May 5, Oswalt has made nine trips to the hill and given up at least four runs in five of those contests, and his ERA has jumped nearly a full run during that stretch, from 3.82 to 4.48. In his last outing Friday in Minnesota, he pitched eight innings, but gave up five runs, 10 hits and four walks, losing 5-2. That makes Houston just 6-8 in Oswalt’s starts this season, including 2-5 in his last seven.
Now, granted, Royals starter Luke Hochevar has had his own consistency issues and his 2-3 record and 6.61 ERA are pretty horrific. However, prior to his last start against Arizona (12-5 loss), the former No. 1 overall pick had pitched back-to-back gems, allowing three runs and seven hits in 15 2/3 innings, beating Toronto 6-2 on the road and Cincinnati 4-1 at home. (In fact, he went the distance against the Reds.)
Even with the ugly loss to the DBacks, the Royals are still 3-2 in Hochevar’s last five outings, scoring a total of 22 runs. Throw in the fact that after last night’s win, K.C. is now 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games while the Astros have lost seven of 10 interleague contests overall, 17 of 24 to the A.L. Central and five of Oswalt’s last six against the A.L., and I’ll gladly jump on this generous plus price.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Scott Delaney
These two right-handers faced each other last Thursday, when the Padres won 4-3 in 10 innings and snapped their major league-record Interleague losing streak at 13. Despite the loss though, Morrow looked good in allowing two runs and five hits while striking out six in four innings. I’d much rather side with this hungry youngster than San Diego’s Josh Geer.
Geer is 0-1 with a 7.33 ERA in four starts since defeating the Cubbies more than a month ago. He’s now 1-2 with a 5.98 ERA and I don’t like the way he leaves his pitches out over the zone. He’s been making too many mistakes, and that will haunt him today against Seattle.
1♦ SEATTLE MARINERS
Craig Davis
To be honest, I just don't trust the Royals on the road, especially against someone like Roy Oswalt. Has Oswalt been everything he was cracked up to be? No, not even close. But we're not stupid... this guy still has loads of talent and is 10x better than what the Royals are throwing out to the hill tonight. Luke Hochevar has twice given up six or more earned runs in his first (and only) six starts to the season and his road ERA is a whopping 8.40. Granted, it's not like the Astros are tearing the cover off the ball right now, but you have to admit a pitcher like Hochevar pitching in a hitter-friendly park like Minute Maid Field is a recipe for disaster. Houston does play better at home and all we're asking them to do is find a way to keep Kansas City's bats in check while scoring a few runs themselves. Definitely do-able. Take the Astrost (with Oswalt) on the run line over Kansas City.
2♦ HOUSTON -1 1/2