Weekend Odds and Ends
By Josh Jacobs
Interleague play is back and minus a National League matchup between Houston and Arizona, 12 other contests will follow AL vs. NL protocol.
Unless you’ve been held up in a cave for the past few days then you already know that the big news on campus has been Boston’s dominance over the Yankees. But there are plenty of other happenings to focus on, and it doesn’t have anything to do with the two AL East rivals.
Windy City ‘Under’
The Cubs (29-27, -434) are a bit unpredictable in the standings these days, but there is one tend that continues to gain momentum. In the last 26 games, Chicago and its opponents have pounded the ‘under’ into submission, going 19-7. Sitting at the bottom of the stats lists in offensive production, the North Siders are batting .250 on the season resulting in scoring 245 runs. Anyway you look at it books couldn’t set the total low enough. Average runs for and against on the road have gone a combined 8.2 while home stands haven’t been far off at 8.9. Factor in seasonal pitching numbers of a 3.89 ERA, .237 BAA and a sixth best, 449 strikeouts and what we’re seeing is Chicago’s strength at dictating low scoring affairs.
In the look ahead clash against Minnesota over the weekend, the Cubs’ game plan is to send out Randy Wells to the mound on Friday, Rich Harden on Saturday and Ted Lilly on Sunday. Here are some tidbits on all three slingers leading up to their starts.
Randy Wells (0-2, 1.86 ERA): Helping to facilitate the club’s earning in the totals department, Wells has been a part of the ‘under’ cashing in four times in his six starts (the Cubs are 5-2 on the ‘under’ in their last seven home games). Allowing no more then three runs in any given start this year has been solid work but getting only 3.3 runs of support per start has helped result in not a single win on the season. Look for the ‘under’ play on Thursday as Wells has generated a 0.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in Wrigley thus far.
Rich Harden (4-2, 4.74 ERA): This right-hander has been idle for almost a full month after being forced to sit on the DL (back). A 1:05 p.m. start on Saturday falls in line with Harden’s career, 16-9 record during day games. That success has stemmed from a 3.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP off 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. This season alone, Harden had been blessed with the team producing 5.9 runs of support per start. In turn, the Cubs are 5-1 in his last six trips to the hill. Books have installed Harden as a favorite in every start this season. Those prices have ranged from a high, minus-270 (in an 8-6 victory versus Florida on May 1) to a low, minus-118 (10-3 victory in St. Louis on Apr. 26).
Ted Lilly (7-4, 3.00 ERA): Lefty Ted Lilly will end the weekend long series on Sunday. His last outing in Houston on Jun. 9 was just short of perfect after logging in 6.2 innings on a 114 pitch count. That shutout outing was his third of the season and seventh start in which Lilly held opponents to tacking on five hits or less. Coinciding once again with totals wagering, the southpaw has been involved in the ‘under’ going 8-3 in the last 11 starts. While Chicago has manufactured 4.3 runs of support per start, Lilly has complimented low scoring contests, allowing 2.2 runs per game in 12 games. When coming off a win, a 3-2 record with a 5-1 ‘under’ performance has been generated during the next start.
Subway Series
The Yankees (34-25, -125) will be happy just to get out of Boston this weekend. Pending the result of Thursday’s Game 3, the Red Sox have brutally laid down the law, taking seven straight this season. But getting back to the matter at hand, the Pinstripes will entertain their cross town rival, the Mets in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were once the lone proprietor of the best record in interleague play. Taking two losses in the last three games versus Philadelphia this season, the gap is nearly closing. Oakland is 124-91 in interleague play, just two games shy of tying the Bombers.
If the Mets (31-26, +101) were a part of Hollywood we’d be calling them the classic drama queens. All joking aside, New York is 4-6 in its last 10. Pitching hasn’t been a strong suit in June as both starters and pen are in an early hole. This is a core of arms coming together for a 20th ranked 4.56 ERA in just the first 11 days of the month.
On a positive note for those looking to back the visiting team, the Mets are 14-6 in Game 1 of a series. The big difference is an offensive batting order scoring 5.2 runs per game in conjunction with the defense giving up 3.7 runs per game (the ‘over’ is a not so inspiring 11-9). And if you’re interested in further investigation, the Metropolitans are 10-4 coming into Game 1’s after a loss and 4-2 entering Game 1 off a win.
That Mets’ offense has been fueled specifically by David Wright’s five RBIs and .483 BA followed by Carlos Beltran bringing in his own four RBIs on two homers. Then there’s the opposite side of the spectrum. Gary Sheffield has recorded just three hits this month (batting .125 in June) and five other players are swinging for a BA of .250 or below. There’s a large disparity in those getting the job done from the rest of the pack.
During 2008, the Mets went 4-2 in their six meetings against the Yankees. Their success was based on scoring double-digit figures in two of those games, while the four wins witnessed the Metropolitans averaging nine runs per game. Even more convincing was the Mets beginning interleague play in ’08 taking three straight in the Bronx (at -124 with Johan Santana pitching his way to victory followed by prices of +147 and +138 in succession).
Talking about Santana, we can't avoid his last outing and loss against Philadelphia (6-5). The lefty was beaten for five runs off eight hits but it was the four homers that put the exclamation point on Santana's night. In-fact the ace has now coughed up at least one homerun in five straight starts.
Some numbers to go along with this weekend’s matchup include the Yankees 12-4 stranglehold at home in their last 16, the ‘under’ at 7-1 in the Yanks last eight interleague home games and the ‘under’ at three straight in the last three head-to-head matchups. Let’s just keep Yankee Stadium’s newest aerodynamic discussion close at hand as the ‘over’ is 16-11-2 and counting.
Both teams will face left-handed pitching this weekend. The Mets will face southpaw pitcher, Andy Pettitte on Saturday for which they’ve logged in a .299 BA against. The Yankees will be facing All-Star slinger, Johan Santana in their quest to conquer lefties (the Yanks are batting .293 versus lefties).
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