Weekly Betting Notes
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The massive trade the Dodgers struck with Boston to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett sent shockwaves through the baseball world and the deal immediately sent rapid changes at every sports book odds board in town.
"We had dropped the Dodgers from 12-to-1 down to 8-to-1 when we first started hearing about rumors the a deal might be made," said LVH Super Book assistant manager Jeff Sherman, "and then after it was confirmed we went down to 7-to-1 which is where they are right now."
When adjusting a teams future price down, to balance out the theoretic hold, the sports book has to raise the price on some other team and Sherman raised the price on the Red Sox.
"We raised Boston to 500-to-1," Sherman said with slight chuckle.
Who would have ever thought Boston would be sellers in the market. This was a team that was one of the favorites to win it all. This is a team we routinely see playing for something in September, but now they’re officially finished in August. The surrender flag has finally been flown at Fenway Park.
"The Red Sox had to do something because it was apparent early on this season that things weren’t going to be like the past," said Sherman. "They got stuck with some bad contracts and they weren‘t producing, so change was needed."
The trade unloaded $260 million in player salaries that the Dodgers didn’t even hesitate to blink at showing the ownership group that includes Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten weren’t fooling around when they said five months ago after taking control of the team that they wanted to win now.
The Dodgers aren’t messing around and are floating out some serious cash to prove it.
Not only have they signed Andre Ethier to a five-year $85 million extension, but they went out and traded for Hanley Ramirez taking on his $37 million, Shane Victorino’s $3 million rental for two months and taking on the likes of Joe Blanton and Brandon League. As it stands right now, the Dodgers are set to pay out $192 million in salaries for 2013.
Despite gaining all the new players, Sherman still doesn’t see the Dodgers as the team to beat in the National League.
"They’ve got their work cut out for them to make the playoffs. There are still a whole bunch of other teams vying for the same Wild Card spots that aren’t going to lay down. The Dodgers have been struggling. Getting swept last week by the Giants showed a lot of their weaknesses that I’m not sure Gonzalez, Crawford, or Beckett shore up. I think this sets them up great for 2013, but I‘m not sold on them this year."
The Dodgers and Giants meet up six more times this season, including the final three games of the season. Through Sunday, the Dodgers were a game-and-a-half behind the Braves and Cardinals and a half game up on the Pirates.
The Giants are currently 10-to-1 to win the World Series, odds that are based more on public perception rather than what the sports book actually thinks will happen. The Dodgers moving to 7-to-1 was based on current liability -- they were already one of the most popular future bets -- and the public’s new perception based on the trade.
We’ll soon know how this story ends, but it’s going to be one interesting read over the next five weeks. At least the Dodgers weren’t forced to take John Lackey in the deal.
CURRENT LVH SUPER BOOK ODDS
2012 WORLD SERIES
YANKEES 5/1
RANGERS 5/1
NATIONALS 6/1
REDS 7/1
DODGERS 7/1
GIANTS 10/1
RAYS 12/1
TIGERS 12/1
WHITE SOX 12/1
CARDINALS 15/1
ANGELS 15/1
BRAVES 15/1
ATHLETICS 25/1
PIRATES 30/1
ORIOLES 40/1
DIAMONDBACKS 100/1
BLUE JAYS 300/1
PHILLIES 300/1
RED SOX 500/1
MARINERS 500/1
BREWERS 2000/1
PADRES 3000/1
METS 3000/1
ROYALS 3000/1
INDIANS 5000/1
MARLINS 5000/1
CUBS 9999/1
TWINS 9999/1
ROCKIES 9999/1
ASTROS xxxx
2012 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT
NATIONALS 11/4
REDS 3/1
DODGERS 3/1
GIANTS 5/1
BRAVES 15/2
CARDINALS 15/2
PIRATES 15/1
DIAMONDBACKS 50/1
PHILLIES 150/1
BREWERS 900/1
METS 1300/1
PADRES 1300/1
MARLINS 2000/1
ROCKIES 4000/1
CUBS 4000/1
ASTROS xxxx
2012 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT
YANKEES 12/5
RANGERS 12/5
RAYS 6/1
WHITE SOX 6/1
TIGERS 6/1
ANGELS 15/2
ATHLETICS 13/1
ORIOLES 20/1
RED SOX 250/1
MARINERS 250/1
ROYALS 1500/1
BLUE JAYS 1500/1
INDIANS 2500/1
TWINS 5000/1