Win Total Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
A brand new baseball season starts at the end of March, as team win totals have been released at several offshore outfits. To tie up money for six months in this sort of bet can be both rewarding and frustrating at the same time. Rewarding from the standpoint of you can know depending on your wager if you are on pace by the All-Star break. However, it's frustrating to wait until October to cash out with the 162-game slate. Let's take a look at how things concluded last season, while we also look ahead to the 2011 campaign.
2010 Review
A little over half the league finished 'over' their win total from last season with 17 teams cashing 'over' tickets. The surprise clubs that were never in doubt included Atlanta (+5½), Cincinnati (+11½), San Diego (+18½), San Francisco (+9½), Texas (+5½), and Toronto (+14½). Each of those squads didn't make the playoffs in 2009, so there was a definitely a shock element to how all of them finished, even though the Padres and Blue Jays fell short of the postseason in 2010.
To put things in perspective on how playoff teams took a step back in 2010, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, and Dodgers all finished 'under' their respective win totals after qualifying for the postseason in 2009. The only teams that eclipsed the 'over' were the Twins and Phillies, as Minnesota actually hit the 'over' of 84½ with ease by compiling 94 victories.
If you think last-place teams will hold serve again the following season, then that statement is partially true. Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all easily closed 2010 'under' its listed win total, while the Pirates concluded the season with a league-worst 57 victories. The biggest surprise 'under' club came from the North Side of Chicago as the Cubs finished with 75 wins after being listed at 82½ last March.
2011 Preview
Several adjustments were made coming into this season, as bettors are wondering who is going to be this season's Cincinnati Reds. Dusty Baker's team has been moved up to 86 ½ wins in a wide-open NL Central, while the Reds are the highest total in baseball's largest division. In fact, the Cubs (85 ½), Brewers (85 ½), and Cardinals (83 ½) are all right there in the unpredictable Central, which has seen three different division champions in the last three seasons.
A couple teams that stick out for a variety of reasons include Colorado (87), Oakland (83½), Tampa Bay (87), and Texas (76). The Rockies are known for being great in odd-numbered years recently by clinching Wild Card berths in 2007 (90 wins) and 2009 (92 wins), while coming off an 83-win campaign last season. The number has been jacked for Colorado thanks to San Diego likely taking a step back and the assumption that San Francisco will fall back to Earth. However, to expect Ubaldo Jimenez to duplicate his 15-1 start through the first week of July is a little crazy.
The A's could be the surprise club to win the AL West after closing last season with an 81-81 mark following three consecutive seasons below .500. Oakland owns a solid young rotation that ranked first in quality starts and fourth in ERA overall. Vegas believes that the Rangers will fall back after losing ace Cliff Lee in free agency, as Texas is trying to finish with a winning record for the third straight season since a run from 1989-91.
Tampa Bay has a high total considering the Rays play 36 games against the Red Sox and Yankees, while playing nine interleague games against the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals. The Rays lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza in the offseason, while picking up veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. Even though the sample size is extremely small, the Rays haven't been able to put together consecutive playoff runs. After winning the AL pennant in 2008, Tampa Bay won just 84 games in 2009 thanks to a 1-12 slump to start September.