Winners and Losers
By Kevin Rogers
One of the keys to betting on baseball is obviously finding value, while not trying to risk $2.50 on CC Sabathia against the Nationals. Six teams have been on the extreme end of making bettors money or completely setting it on fire. Will the following six clubs keep up their winning (or losing) ways in the second half? Who knows? However, these teams are worth keeping an eye on in the second half of the season.
Winners
L.A. Dodgers (55-32, +1828)
The team with the best record in baseball would have to make this list, as Joe Torre's club survived the 50-game suspension of star left fielder Manny Ramirez without a scratch on them. The Dodgers still comfortably lead the NL West, while going 29-21 during Ramirez's ban. Los Angeles has taken care of their division business, winning 30 of 42 games against NL West foes. Prior to San Francisco and Colorado threatening to contend for a Wild Card berth, it seemed as if Los Angeles was an automatic victory, or at least a shoe-in series win against any team from its division. Breaking it down from that perspective, the Dodgers have handled the Rockies (10-2), the Diamondbacks (6-2), and the Padres (9-4). The only team that has given the Dodgers fits is the Giants, who are 4-5 against L.A. this season. There are nine games remaining in the season series, with six coming at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Los Angeles will get a break against the division, playing its next seven series outside the NL West, with five of those series at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers can really put a nail in the NL West coffin in home series with the Astros, Reds, Marlins, Brewers, and Braves over the next month. The lone road sets come at St. Louis (four-game series) and Atlanta (three-game series).
Texas (48-37, +1311)
The Texas Rangers have found a way to remain in the AL West race despite not having All-Star center fielder Josh Hamilton in the fold for most of the first half. Ron Washington's club stayed above the .500 mark without Hamilton (24-21), and even managed to be an 'under' machine, cashing 32 of 45 'unders' in Hamilton's absence.
The Rangers aren't known as a team that relies on its starting pitching, usually it's been the lineup Texas has been accustomed to leaning on. But the Rangers are surviving on the mound, as three pitchers have won at least seven games. Kevin Millwood (8-6, 3.34 ERA) has been especially dominant at home, winning six of his seven decisions in Arlington. The 'under' run the Rangers have been on for the duration of the first half can be traced to both Millwood (11 of 16 'unders') and Scott Feldman (8-2, 3.83 ERA). Feldman has drilled the 'under' in 11 of his 15 starts, and started the season with ten straight 'under' hits. The Rangers have been especially stingy in Feldman's road outings, winning six of his seven away starts.
Texas leads the league in home runs (130), despite their .258 team batting average. The Rangers own an impressive 18-6 mark against the AL West, and will play 20 of their last 23 games of the season against division foes, including seven versus the Angels.
San Francisco (48-38, +1095)
The Giants' chances at winning their division may be slim, but San Francisco has an excellent opportunity to be the Wild Card representative in the National League playoffs. Simply, the Giants may have the most complete starting rotation of any team in the NL. Three former Cy Young Award winners anchor that rotation, led by Tim Lincecum, and his nine victories. Matt Cain also has nine wins to his name, while Randy Johnson and Barry Zito can be relied upon to give the Giants solid outings. And, let's not forget about lefty Jonathan Sanchez, who tossed a no-hitter Friday night against San Diego, as he struck out 11.
It'll be extremely difficult to find Lincecum or Cain as anything but a substantial favorite the rest of the season. The exception for Cain may be on the road, where he has been listed as an underdog in five of eight away starts. The 'dog role for Cain has been warranted, facing the Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals, Brewers, and Mariners. Zito's run support has been the worst among starters in baseball, at 3.18 runs/game, but it has translated into five 'unders' at home in seven starts.
San Francisco starts the second-half on the road with a ten-game trip that starts in Pittsburgh on Friday. Following the Pirates series, the Giants will battle the Braves, then the Rockies for three at Coors Field. The four teams closest to the Giants in the Wild Card race are the Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, and Astros. San Francisco has three games remaining at Milwaukee (Sept. 4-6), three at Houston (Aug. 3-5), and 13 against Colorado (Giants are finished with the Marlins).
Losers
Washington (26-60, -2865)
It's not a smart strategy to just simply fade the same team night in and night out. But, there are exceptions to the rule, that exception is the Washington Nationals. Let's put this in proper perspective. The Dodgers have won 64% of their games, as L.A. owns the best record in baseball. Washington, meanwhile, has lost 70% of its games. If you include the 2008 season, the Nats are 85-162 (34.4%) since last April, dropping a mind-blowing 52 units.
Where does one begin to break down the breakdown of the former Montreal Expos franchise? The Nats do rank in the middle of the league in batting average and runs scored. Unfortunately the pitching staff ranks second-to-last in ERA (the last place team will be showcased later in the story). The bullpen ranks dead-last in ERA (5.71), while owning an 8-30 record, and has blown a league-high 20 saves.
Will it get better for the Nats? Probably not for a long time. Luckily, if bettors just take a look at Washington and take its opponent, plenty of money can still be made in the second-half of the season.
Cleveland (35-53, -2229)
Behind door number two for futility in this baseball campaign is the Cleveland Indians. This team would be better off with Rick Vaughn in the bullpen than some of the arms that Eric Wedge has sent out this season. The Tribe has the worst ERA in all of baseball, and second-worst bullpen ERA.
Cleveland's offense can't really be at fault, despite the absence of center fielder Grady Sizemore for 23 games and designated hitter Travis Hafner for 48 games. The Indians rank in the top five in runs scored, while sitting in the top ten in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. This has fortunately translated into plenty of 'overs', including 27 of 42 on the road.
What makes matters worse for the Indians is the downfall of reigning Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee. The Cleveland ace has not been terrible by any means this season, but his 4-9 record does stick out following a 22-3 mark last season. The Indians have wasted quality outings by Lee time and time again. Lee has made 19 starts this season, 15 of which have been quality. Out of those 15, the Indians are a dreadful 4-11, either meaning he received little run support, or the bullpen gave away those potential wins. Either way, it's been a frustrating season if you have burned money betting on the Tribe.
Arizona (38-51, -1436)
Talk about a fall from grace for a promising franchise. In 2007, the Diamondbacks had home-field advantage in the NLCS, before getting swept by the upstart Rockies. Two seasons later, Arizona is barely staying out of the NL West basement, as co-team ace Brandon Webb has been shelved since the start of April with an arm injury. Dan Haren has maintained his role as the team's second ace, but the Arizona right-hander can't take the mound every night. Haren is responsible for nine victories this season, after shutting out Florida on Friday night. Besides Haren, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, and Max Scherzer are a combined 13-22 in the starting rotation.
The lineup has been a grave disappointment, ranking near the bottom of the league in batting average, while sitting in the middle of the pack in runs scored. The best way to make money on Arizona may be playing the 'over' when the D-Backs are at home, as Arizona has drilled the 'over' in 13 of its last 18 home games. The D-Backs have also been a solid 'fade' play when coming off a win in which they scored at least six runs, going a money-burning 4-16 in that situation.
Teams like the Dodgers and Nationals are doing what was expected of them to begin the season. The Giants looked to be mediocre, but have risen above expectations, while the Indians and Diamondbacks have completely fallen apart. It's tough to say if it will all continue like this, but these teams should be paid attention to as we head down the stretch.
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