World Baseball Classic: Preview and pick
By JUAN C. RODRIGUEZ
Juan C. Rodriguez covers the Florida Marlins for the Sun Sentinel.
Usually confined to Florida and Arizona this time of year, Major League Baseball is set to go global. The second World Baseball Classic kicks off in Tokyo Thursday, where in Pool A the Japanese entry begins its title defense of the inaugural 2006 tournament.
Led once again by Seattle Mariners superstar Ichiro Suzuki, Japan is among the frontrunners. But it will face formidable opposition in its bid to reach the championship game at Dodger Stadium March 23.
Here's a look at the favorites in the 16-team field:
Dominican Republic (+175)
Albert Pujols won't be manning first base for a Dominican team looking to improve upon a semifinal finish of 2006. The offense shouldn't suffer considering who they've got at third. The New York-born Alex Rodriguez changed allegiances, opting this time around to stay true to his Latin roots rather than done Team USA colors.
The Dominican boasts the tournament's best left side of the infield. Next to Rodriguez at short will be some combination of Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes. Rounding out the Dominican infield is David Ortiz and Robinson Cano.
On the pitching side, the Dominicans are led by a pair of rising stars (Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto) and a fading one (Pedro Martinez). While the Dominicans don't have a tried and true closer, they do possess several capable backend bullpen arms with guys like Juan Cruz, Jose Arredondo, Damaso Marte, Tony Pena and Rafael Perez.
United States (+200)
Team USA manager Davey Johnson proclaimed his squad the one to beat. That's a bold assessment considering an American contingent packed with future Hall of Famers went 3-3 and failed to make the semifinals in 2006.
This time around, Team USA focused on building a good team rather than a collection of superstar players. They've got a nice mix of catalysts (Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Curtis Granderson), boppers (David Wright, Ryan Braun, Chipper Jones) and grinders (Dustin Pedroia, Mark DeRosa, Kevin Youkilis).
Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt are the top starters, but the strength of this pitching staff is its relievers. Joe Nathan, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, Matt Lindstrom, B.J. Ryan and Brad Ziegler will all start the season as closers for their respective clubs. J.J. Putz was the Mariners closer last season and Matt Thornton, Scot Shields and J.P. Howell are among the game's top setup men.
Japan (+350)
The inaugural WBC champions went 5-3 and topped Cuba in the title game thanks in part to the pitching trio of tournament MVP Daisuke Matsuzaka, Koji Uehara and Shunsuke Wanatabe, who went a combined 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA.
Matsuzaka, the lone major leaguer on the pitching staff, and Wanatabe are back, but Uehara opted to remain in his first big league camp with the Orioles.
A few more major leaguers are sprinkled among the position players, most notably Ichiro, who batted .364 with a .932 on-base plus slugging percentage in the first WBC. The other big leaguers include catcher Kenji Johjima, infielder Akinori Iwamura and outfielder Kosuke Fukudome.
The Japanese team this time around does not have Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Nobuhiko Matsunaka, two of its top offensive performers from 2006. They combined to hit .393 (24 for 61) with two homers, 10 RBI and 18 runs scored.
Cuba (+750)
Once an international baseball juggernaut, the Cuban team has grown more vulnerable in recent years as its top stars have entered the twilight of their careers. Nonetheless, Cuba should easily advance along with host Mexico out of a Pool B field that includes South Africa and Australia.
Perhaps the squad's most gifted player is third baseman Yulieski Gourriel, one of several holdovers from the 2006 runner-up team. Now 24, Gourriel had a respectable showing in his first go-round, batting .273 with a .857 OPS as a 21-year-old. Along with Gourriel, outfielder Frederich Cepeda will be looked upon to carry the club offensively.
Several of the club's most prominent players are in their mid to late 30s, including catcher Ariel Pestano (35), shortstop Eduardo Paret (36) and pitchers Pedro Luis Lazo (35) and Norje Vera (37). Three years ago, Lazo went 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three games (one start) and shut down the Dominicans over 4 2/3 innings of relief in the semifinal.
Venezuela (+1000)
A stacked Venezuelan club failed to reach the semifinals in 2006, going 3-3 thanks to an inexplicably poor offensive showing. The Venezuelans went 35-for-188 (.186) and averaged a pedestrian 3.6 runs per game.
Tough to imagine a lineup that will feature Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Bobby Abreu struggling to that extent again. Their offensive success may ultimately rest on the likes of Endy Chavez, Gregor Blanco and Marco Scutaro setting the table for the aforementioned mashers.
The Venezuelans would be more of a factor with Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano leading the pitching staff. Instead, young studs Felix Hernandez and Armando Galarraga will serve as the top two. You have to like Venezuela's chances of holding a lead with single-season saves record holder Francisco Rodriguez pitching the ninth.
Darkhorse: Mexico (+1800)
Mexico did not advance to the semifinals in 2006, but a 2-1, second-round victory over Team USA kept their neighbors to the north from going on as well. This year's club should give likely second-round opponents Cuba, Japan and Korea all they can handle.
Oliver Perez and Jorge Campillo lead a pitching staff with a quality bullpen that features Joakim Soria, Luis Ayala and Ricardo Rincon.
The lineup is balanced with spark plugs Alfredo Amezaga, Augie Ojeda, and Jerry Hairston Jr., and power hitters Adrian Gonzalez, Jorge Cantu and Erubiel Durazo.
Pick: United States over Mexico in the final
WBC Betting Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Feelings are mixed as the World Series Classic quickly approaches. On one hand, the idea of pitting countries against each other and raising baseball awareness across the globe sounds like a win-win situation. However, the risk of injuring multi-million dollar players who currently reside in Major League Baseball is of serious concern.
But attention must be given on how we can maxamize profit on future wagering in this tourney.
It was in 2006 that Japan posted a 10-6 win over Cuba, becoming the first champion in the Classic. This time around, team Japan looks to be an early betting favorite with Bodog.com posting them at 6-1 odds.
Entering the new double-elimination format for this tournament, Japan will be without pitchers Hiroki Kuroda, Takashi Saito and Kazumi Saito. But backers should have no fear as Seattle’s all-star, Ichiro Suzuki will compliment Chicago Cubs' Kosuke Fukudome, Tampa Bay’s Akinori Iwamura and Cleveland right-hand reliever, Masahide Kobayashi.
During the 2008 MLB season Suzuki, Fukudome and Iwamura combined for a .280 BA with 148 RBIs and a speedy, 63 stolen bases (Suzuki made up 43 of those stolen bases). The ace in the hole for the Japanese team could very well be right handed starting pitch, Yu Darvish. His 6’5’’ frame has given way to a 2.33 ERA with 585 strikeouts in four years as part of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters.
Expect speed and starting pitching to characterize what Japan brings to the table in March.
The Dominican Republic trails just behind the United States as a $1.50 player to take the WBC outright. New to the team (and pretty darn impressive at that) includes the Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez, the Cubs’ Aramis Ramirez and the Reds’ starting slinger, Edinson Volquez. Both Hanley and Aramis brought in 111 and 67 RBIs (2008 season) respectively.
And that’s just the tip of the ice burg. The Dominican team will field the following players; Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez (making the shift over from the U.S. to the DR), Albert Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz and Carlos Pena (batting order could very well resemble this given list). Wow, just mentioning this power lineup should scare opponents! And there’s more. How are reserves, Placido Polanco, Jhonny Peralta, Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltran sound?
While the Dominican Republic’s starting rotation may suffer from not being fully prepared (this is essentially Spring Training for MLB arms), you can bet a stack of cash that a bullpen crafted by Jose Valverde, Octavio Dotel, Francisco Cordero and Damaso Marte should be able reinforce the defense.
The United States opened, and continues to take action as a $1.20 favorite to conquer the tournament this year. Far removed from the embarrassing 2006 outing, the US looks to have upgraded by adding Jimmy Rollins (.277 BA, 59 RBIs), Ryan Braun (.285 BA, 106 RBIs), Dustin Perdroia (326 BA, 83 RBIs) and David Wright (.302 BA, 124 RBIs).
But offense won’t score you a key to the bank vault unless starting pitchers, Roy Oswalt (17-10, 3.54 ERA), Jake Peavy (10-11, 2.85), Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) and relievers J.J. Putz (56 strike outs, 3.88 ERA) and Scott Shields (2.70 ERA) can hold off a batting order like the Dominican Republic will field inside the box.
Located in Pool C with Canada, Italy and Venezuela, Bodog.com has listed the U.S. as 1-3 favorites to emerge as winners. But unless the U.S. can improve on scoring more then eight runs as it did in the entire second round of the 2006 Classic then odds and ends are all second nature.
Canada may seem like a long shot at 50-1 to take the tournament but a beat down on team USA, 8-6 in round one of the 2006 WBC got us thinking that surprises do happen. A look at the roster shows vast improvement from three years ago. Jason Bay will get the ball rolling, coming off a 2008 MLB outing which had the left fielder batting .286 with 31 homers for 101 RBIs. First baseman, Justin Morneau will bring his .300 BA and 129 RBIs to the batters box while catcher Russell Martin adds more firepower to both the offense and defense.
This is not to say that Canada enters the Classic by scarring away the likes of the Dominican Republic’s fierce batting order or the U.S.’s more diversified talent, but to put them on the backburner would be doing injustice.
Both South Africa and China round out the biggest ‘dogs of the 16 total teams participating. Led by amateurs once again, South Africa has been installed as a 225-1 long shot while China’s roster has just three players associated with a Major League Club. The People’s Republic of China is right on South Africa’s heels as a 200-1 puppy.
There’s no real science to future wagering in the newly developed World Baseball Classic. We know, for the most part, which teams posses MLB caliber squads and which are dominated by nothing more then players with limited experience.
The slow time in professional sports gaming is here so enjoy the Classic for what it’s worth, a solid exhibition of America’s pastime. Below are the odds for the entire 16-team field.
Odds to Win the 2009 World Baseball Classic
Team Odds
Australia 150/1
Canada 50/1
China 200/1
Chinese Taipei 40/1
Cuba 10/1
Dominican Republic 3/2
Italy 100/1
Japan 6/1
Korea 15/1
Mexico 20/1
Netherlands 175/1
Panama 30/1
Puerto Rico 15/1
South Africa 225/1
United States 6/5
Venezuela 7/1
vegasinsider.com
World Baseball Classic Picks and Predictions
by T.O. Whenham
The second World Baseball Classic is just around the corner. It's not a perfect tournament - the timing isn't great, and baseball doesn't perfectly lend itself to a short tournament like this. Still, it's a more compelling event than a lot of things and, as importantly, you can bet on it. Here's a look at how the WBC breaks down from a betting perspective (odds are from Bodog) with my World Baseball Classic picks and predictions:
World Baseball Classic Predictions
No Chance
Australia (250/1) - They are 250/1 to win it all. That's all you need to know. Except this - 250/1 is a pretty significant underlay for this team.
Canada (50/1) - In a perfect world my Canadian boys would rise and surprise some people and make their 50/1 price look like a bargain. This is far from a perfect world. There are several pretty good Canadian pitchers in the majors right now. Unfortunately, none of them are on this team. They'll be feisty but outmatched.
China (200/1) - China has the quantity - over a billion people - but not the quality on the baseball front just yet. You just know that they will be a force at some point, but they are far from it now.
Chinese Taipei (50/1) - These guys have one true star on their roster - Yankees pitcher Chien-Ming Wang. Unfortunately, he's not quite healthy enough to be playing yet, so he won't be on the squad. That makes it too hard for this team to accomplish anything.
Italy (150/1) - The Italians made it pretty easy to qualify for their team - basically, if you have ever eaten in an Italian restaurant then you qualify. They have a bunch or recognizable names, but not enough to be dangerous.
Netherlands (200/1) - Braves' pitcher Jair Jurrjens is a Dutch player that I like a whole lot. Unfortunately, he isn't playing in the tournament. That doesn't leave them with a lot.
Panama (45/1) - Mariano Rivera is the best player ever to come from Panama. Unfortunately, the Yankees won't let him play here. With him the team almost certainly wasn't good enough. Without him they are doomed.
South Africa (250/1) - Be honest - did you even know that they played baseball in South Africa? Neither did I.
Little Chance
Korea (20/1) - These guys have precisely one major leaguer -Shin-Soo Choo of the Indians. They apparently have some nice players, but it is hard to believe that they are deep enough or experienced enough to get it done.
Mexico (25/1) - There are some solid pitchers from Mexico. Unfortunately, several, most notably Matt Garza, aren't playing. Mexico isn't a team to be taken lightly, but I just don't see them being deep enough.
Puerto Rico (18/1) - I learned something I didn't know - Mike Lowell is a Puerto Rican. He's not playing here, though. They have some nice power and skill - Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Alex Rios. They're still going to be a bit outclassed, though, and they don't have the pitching to measure up.
Venezuela (12/1) - These guys are by far the best team of this group. They'd be even better if the Mets would let Johan Santana join the squad. They've got some power and some pitching, but not as much depth as I think they will need.
The Real Contenders
Cuba (13/2) - These guys are very hard to figure out. On one hand, you don't have to worry about the best players not being on the team - they don't really have a choice. That makes them tough. On the other hand, it's hard to know who they have on their squad because we don't get to see their players much. You have to assume that they are going to be good, but it's very hard to figure what kind of value they offer at this price. My instinct is to ignore them here and hope for the best.
Japan (6/1) - The Japanese are the defending champs, but they are in a tough spot to do it again. Four of their biggest stars from 2006 aren't back, and a few others are here but older. They will certainly have some impressive talent that toils in Japan, but they will have to play at their very best to win it all again.
Dominican Republic (2/1) - You only have to take a quick look at this roster to realize how good the Dominican Republic is at producing ball players. They'd be even better if pitchers Ervin Santana or Fausto Carmona were going to be there. They have everything - power, depth, skill, pitching. By a narrow margin they are not the favorites here, but in my mind they have a solid edge, and I expect them to come out on top.
U.S. (9/5) - CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels - there aren't too many guys better than those three. Sadly, none are going to be there. That hurts. So does the absence of Brad Lidge. All in all, I just don't love the pitching the Americans will have on the mound - there are way too many questions. The Americans will enjoy home field advantage, and they are obviously talented, but all in all I just don't think this price offers any value at all.
Docsports.com