World Series Betting News and Notes

World Series Preview & Prediction
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

The Houston Astros will meet the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. How’s this for some trivia? The last time we had two World Series teams that won at least 100 games was all the way back in 1970 when the Baltimore Orioles topped the Cincinnati Reds. That will be the case this season when the Astros, who went 101-61, battle the Dodgers, who led the league at 104-58. Many people believe that these were the two best teams throughout the season and it’s hard to argue with them, even though the Indians had the best record in the AL at 102-60. The Astros have never won a World Series. The Dodgers haven’t won one since 1988. One drought will end. The other will continue.

The Dodgers are around a -160 favorite (61.54% implied probability) at BetOnline Sportsbook to win what this team has been built to do. That puts the Astros around +140 as what could be the biggest win for analytics that we have ever seen.

Here is the schedule for the series and the projected pitching matchups:

Game 1 @ LAD: Tuesday October 24 (Keuchel vs. Kershaw)
Game 2 @ LAD: Wednesday October 25 (Verlander vs. Hill)
Game 3 @ HOU: Friday October 27 (Darvish vs. Morton)
Game 4 @ HOU: Saturday October 28
Game 5 @ HOU: Sunday October 29
Game 6 @ LAD: Tuesday October 31
Game 7 @ LAD: Wednesday November 1

My guess here is that we see some starts going on three days rest in Game 4, hence the TBD from that point on. The Dodgers have been managing their starter workloads and the Astros have been cobbling together whatever they can in order to survive and advance.

Offense

If you’re an unbiased observer, this is the series that you wanted. As far as position player fWAR (Fangraphs WAR calculation), these are the two best teams in baseball. The Astros combined for 33 fWAR with the best offense in baseball and the Dodgers combined for 30.1 fWAR with a solid offense and one of the best defensive teams in the league.

The Astros made a lot of quality contact this season. They had one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates at 17.3 percent and hit 238 home runs. They battled .282 as a team with a .309 BABIP, which highlights the season-long contact quality, and finished well above everybody else in baseball with a 121 wRC+, which is weighted runs created plus, a metric that grades offenses relative to league average with adjustments put in for park factors. The Dodgers had a 104 wRC+, so the Astros offense graded out at 17 percent better than Los Angeles’s, when accounting for park factor and other adjustments. That is a sizable gap, to say the least. The Astros were 41 points better in the slugging percentage department and 12 points better in the OBP department. That is why there is such a big gap.

The Dodgers were the most patient team in baseball, though. They drew a walk in 10.5 percent of their plate appearances. As a result of all of the deep counts, the Dodgers did strike out five percent more often than the Astros. A 22.3 percent K% was still only tied for 11th, though, so that speaks to have much strikeouts have risen and how little they matter in the grand scheme of things.

One of the most important offensive factors in this series is that the Astros tied for the highest wRC+ in all of baseball with a 120 mark against left-handed pitching. Their .347 wOBA was second only to the Detroit Tigers. Houston had the lowest K% against lefties at just 16.7 percent. The Indians were second at 17.6 percent, so it was a big gap. Houston’s prowess against southpaws is a big deal with Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill setting the tone for the Dodgers in this series. In terms of the Dodgers, they were fifth in wOBA at .337 and fourth in wRC+ at 109 in this split against lefties, so they fared pretty well in their own right. That is relevant because they’ll see Dallas Keuchel in Game 1.

The Astros were tops in the league against righties, with a 122 wRC+ and a .349 wOBA. The Dodgers were just three percent better than league average in that split with a 103 wRC+ and a .327 wOBA. The Dodgers drew a lot of walks, but only had a .290 BABIP in that split. Their SLG was 49 points behind the Astros, so contact quality was a bit of an issue.

We don’t want to read too much into postseason sample sizes, but it is fair to point out that Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve basically kept the Astros alive throughout the ALCS. Others woke up later in the series and Yuli Gurriel had a few big hits, but Houston relied heavily on those two players. Considering they are two of the best in baseball, that isn’t a bad thing. The Dodgers have gotten balanced offense throughout the lineup in the playoffs thus far. The status of Corey Seager will be a big deal. He missed the NLCS with a back injury. He’s had some time to rehab it and get treatment. It would be a surprise to see him left off of the World Series roster.

The edge has to go to the Astros here. Minute Maid Park does slightly favor offense, but Dodger Stadium certainly does not, so we’ll have to see what, if any, impact that has on the Houston offense, but nobody in baseball hit better than the Astros away from home and that includes 27 games in Seattle, Anaheim, and Oakland, where offense is tough to come by.

Starting Pitching

The Dodgers were ahead of the Astros in the regular season. Los Angeles posted a 3.39 ERA with a 3.74 FIP and xFIP. Houston posted a 4.03 ERA with a 3.95 FIP and a 3.81 xFIP. In the playoffs, the Dodgers have mostly limited their starters to 75 or 80 pitches in order to utilize the phenomenal bullpen depth that they have. That has not been a luxury afforded to AJ Hinch, whose best bet in some games is to push the starters to their breaking points instead of going to the middle relievers. The Dodgers rotation is much fresher as we go deeper into the fall and that is something that could have a huge impact on this series.

Clayton Kershaw is the best regular season pitcher on the planet, but people have lots of hot takes about his playoff performance. Look, I get it. He has a 4.40 ERA. His HR/FB% in the playoffs is 15 percent, which is awful compared to his 7.8 percent career HR/FB% in the regular season. I understand the skepticism. I also know that Kershaw has a 3.26 xFIP in his 106.1 playoff innings and has 122 strikeouts. This is a really tough matchup for him, though. Kershaw allowed 23 HR in 175 innings during the season. He allowed 23 HR in 381.2 innings across the 2015 and 2016 seasons combined. I don’t fall victim to small sample size bias, but I can recognize how tough of a matchup this is for playoff Kershaw.

Rich Hill has not been efficient. He’s only worked nine innings in two starts. He has a 12/4 K/BB ratio with three runs allowed on six hits. The Astros aren’t a great matchup against him because he allows a lot of weak contact and they thrive on bat-to-ball, not waiting out guys that have such a big percentage of their plate appearances end in a strikeout or a walk. On the year, 205 of the 552 plate appearances for Hill ended in a K or a BB. He did allow 18 HR, which is a red flag.

Nobody commands the bottom of the zone better than Dallas Keuchel. Justin Verlander has been elite for the Astros since they acquired him, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. In eight starts and one relief appearance with the Astros, Verlander has 67 strikeouts in 58.2 innings of work. He has allowed a total of eight runs on 34 hits. He has embraced analytics and he’s a workhorse, so I’m not too worried about him tiring in this series despite the heavy ALCS workload.

You can make a case, and I would listen, that Keuchel + Verlander > Kershaw + Hill. The wild cards in this are Yu Darvish and Charlie Morton. On the surface, Darvish is much better than Morton. But, Morton has a very high-upside arsenal, as we saw in Game 7. The Astros know Darvish quite well from his Texas days. I don’t care about the batter vs. pitcher splits. I just care that they know his tendencies, know what to expect, and have a good set of advance scouting reports. Whether that helps in a practical sense remains to be seen, but it has to be considered an advantage heading into the series.

The great equalizer here, both with the rotation and the bullpen, is that the Astros have worked a lot more. They swept the Red Sox, but the Dodgers also swept the Diamondbacks. It took Houston seven high-stress games to get rid of the Yankees. It took the Dodgers five games to dispose of the Cubs. Those two extra games are significant because one was started by Verlander and one was started by an oft-injured Morton.

If there’s a small edge to be had, it is that. The Astros rotation has had to work a lot harder than the Dodgers rotation. As far as a comparison of the personnel between the two, it’s pretty close.

Bullpen

This part is not close. The Dodgers have had a great bullpen in these playoffs and had a great bullpen throughout the season. We’ll see if AJ Hinch opts to leave Lance McCullers Jr. in the bullpen or if he wants to use him as a starter. My guess is that he cannot afford to take McCullers out of the pen with the struggles of guys like Chris Devenski and Will Harris. Ken Giles has been a little bit iffy as well.

Nobody in the Dodgers pen has had issues. Dodgers relievers have a 32/2 K/BB ratio in 28.2 innings of work. They have allowed 12 hits and only three extra-base hits. Kenley Jansen is the best right-handed reliever on the planet. The Houston bullpen has already allowed eight home runs and 14 extra-base hits overall. The Houston pen has a 5.03 ERA. This was a growing problem as the season went along. Many scribes in the baseball community were surprised that the Astros didn’t do more at the Trade Deadline. Somebody like Brad Hand made so much sense, but a deal was never reached. Houston got by in the ALCS in spite of its bullpen and because the workload on the Yankees bullpen started to show at various points in the series.

Houston’s pen has walked 14 in 34 innings. The Dodgers pen has allowed 14 baserunners total. Sure, LA has played two fewer games, but still. This is a massive advantage for the Dodgers and one that cannot be ignored. Given the climate of the MLB playoffs, this is the advantage that means the most for either side in this series.

Intangibles

This series is a huge win for analytics and I couldn’t be happier about that. Analytics are a huge part of my baseball fandom and we’ve seen organizations that are well behind the times start to prioritize them. In fact, this entire postseason has been a win for analytics. The Cubs beat the Nationals, one of the few laggards left. The Diamondbacks made a huge turnaround with a savvier front office. The Yankees have been embracing more analytics to get a younger, cheaper core in hopes of spending less money in the future. They also took the bullpen dominance quest very seriously.

The Astros started this plan five years ago with a bunch of high-strikeout hitters. They’ve gotten fortunate along the way that Dallas Keuchel and Jose Altuve emerged into stars when they had lower ceilings at the time of the rebuild, but that has to happen for teams to have success more often than not. Houston has been built the right way. They’ve drafted and developed well from within and have hit the FA and trade markets when necessary. The Dodgers, despite the $300 million payroll, have Andrew Friedman in the front office and he is in tune with the numbers.

Anyway, off of that soap box, let’s look at other intangibles. Many will look at Houston being down a hitter with the NL park rules and scoff at their offense, but Houston had some of the lowest offensive production in the AL from the DH. Guys that were designated hitters posted a .242/.292/.409 slash line. That is obviously better than what a pitcher would do over the long-term, but with maybe six plate appearances in the first two games, at most, and maybe six more in the last two games, it isn’t that significant.

The one area in which it does hurt Houston is that they will have to make some hard decisions with the leveraging of relief pitchers. Guys that would normally go multiple innings may see their spot in the batting order come around. That makes AJ Hinch’s job very difficult because bullpen depth is not a strong suit for the Astros.

The Dodgers were second in defensive runs saved and the Astros were 21st. Los Angeles was sixth in UZR and Houston was 28th. Because Houston’s best attribute is putting the ball in play and doing so with contact authority, this big defensive disparity could come into play in this series in a big way.

The fact that Dave Roberts has managed the Dodgers pitching staff so efficiently is a big edge. Houston has thrown a lot of pitches. The Dodgers really have not.

Series Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -160

I think we’re in for a long series and a good series, but I cannot overlook the huge edge in the relief department for the Dodgers. The fact that their workload is so much lighter is also a big consideration for me. The NL rules and the fact that it limits the effectiveness of a guy like Chris Devenski or Lance McCullers really hurts the Astros in this series. You certainly don’t want Devenski or McCullers to have to hit, especially if this does end up being a low run environment. I’m not sure that there’s a good workaround for the Astros.

I do think that they have a starting pitching advantage in some respects and undoubtedly have the better offense, but if these are going to be close games, and I believe that they are, giving me the Dodgers bullpen at -160 over the course of a long series is a pretty fair bet.

World Series Cheat Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

A pair of 100-win teams will meet for the World Series title as the Dodgers and Astros hook up for an anticipated thrilling matchup. Los Angeles is coming off its first pennant since 1988, while Houston captured its first-ever American League pennant as the Astros are in their first World Series since 2005.

The Dodgers (104-58) began the season at 10-12 before winning 23 of their next 31 games. Los Angeles took complete control of the National League West division with an incredible 56-11 run from June through late August. Six different Dodgers clubbed at least 20 home runs, led by rookie outfielder Cody Bellinger’s 39 dingers. The pitching staff dominated all season long as Clayton Kershaw paced the Dodgers with 18 victories and a 2.31 ERA, both tops in the NL, while closer Kelsey Jansen finished tied for first in the NL with 41 saves.

The Astros (101-61) missed the postseason in 2016, but were poised to take that next step in 2017 and didn’t blow the opportunity. Houston started 29-12 at the quarter-pole mark, while finishing the first half at 60-29, capped off by a 19-1 blowout of Toronto. The Astros lost 22 of their next 40 games, while having to deal with the catastrophic effects of Hurricane Harvey hitting the Houston area. That storm resurrecting Houston’s season, as A.J. Hinch’s team finished 22-8 down the stretch, one game shy of the best record in the AL behind Cleveland.

Los Angeles put together a terrific postseason by winning seven of eight games to rebound from last season’s NLCS loss to Chicago. The Dodgers swept the Diamondbacks in three games of the NLDS, while scoring 20 runs in those victories. Los Angeles had another shot at Chicago in the NLCS and didn’t mess around by winning, 4-1, while limiting the defending champion Cubs to one run in three of those wins. Kershaw beat the Cubs twice, as the three-time Cy Young winner allowed three earned runs in 11 innings of work.

Houston took care of its home-field advantage in the playoffs by winning all six games at Minute Maid Park. The Astros eliminated the Red Sox in four games of the ALDS, but had their hands full with the upstart Yankees in the ALCS. After capturing the first two games from New York at home, the Astros’ offense fell flat in the Bronx by scoring only five runs in three consecutive losses. Houston rebounded at home with back-to-back wins, including a tremendous pitching effort from Charlie Morton in the Game 7 clinching 4-0 shutout of New York.

The team owning home-field advantage has won six of the last eight World Series, as Game 1 takes place at Chavez Ravine on Tuesday. Home squads are 6-2 in the previous eight series openers, as the Indians grabbed Game 1 last October against the Cubs, but ended up losing in seven games. The OVER has cashed in four of the past five World Series openers, as the four-year OVER streak ended in Cleveland’s 6-0 shutout of Chicago in 2016.

Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA) has his first crack at a World Series start in Game 1, as the Dodgers posted a magnificent 26-4 record in his 30 appearances this season. It doesn’t matter where Kershaw pitches, he has dominated everywhere, as his home ERA was actually a touch higher than the road (2.82 to 1.99). Since going 0-2 in the 2014 playoffs against the Cardinals, the Dodgers own a 7-2 record in Kershaw’s last nine playoff starts.

Rich Hill (12-8, 3.32 ERA) has turned into the second starter in this rotation behind Kershaw as the veteran southpaw has finally found a home in Los Angeles. Hill tossed nine no-hit innings against Pittsburgh in late August, while the Dodgers have won each of the left-hander’s last five starts. Yu Darvish (4-3, 3.44 ERA with L.A.) has stepped up recently as the former Rangers’ ace has allowed one earned run or fewer in five consecutive starts, while tossing a pair of gems in road victories over Arizona and Chicago in the first two rounds.

Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) took home the 2015 AL Cy Young winner, but he couldn’t help the Astros get past the Royals in the ALDS that season. Keuchel overcame a neck injury in early June following a fast start to the season as the Astros have split his last 14 starts. Keuchel dominated in his first two starts of the playoffs at home, but couldn’t deliver in his last appearance in Game 5 at New York by giving up four earned runs in 4.2 innings of a 5-0 defeat. The southpaw has been listed as an underdog of +130 or higher since the start of 2016, losing at Boston in May 2016, while allowing eight earned runs.

Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) proved to be the biggest prize that was moved during the season as the Astros acquired the former MVP and Cy Young winner from the Tigers in late August. Since Verlander joined the Astros, Houston owns a perfect 8-0 record in his eight starts, while striking out 21 in two victories over New York in the ALCS. Verlander last took the mound in the World Series with Detroit back in 2012, getting lit up for five earned runs in four innings of an 8-3 loss at San Francisco.

The Dodgers and Astros used to face each other every season when Houston was a member of the National League, but these teams haven’t hooked up since 2015. In that series in August at Minute Maid Park, Houston pulled off a three-game sweep of Los Angeles, which included a victory over Kershaw in the series finale. Houston hasn’t played at Dodger Stadium since 2012 when Los Angeles grabbed two of three meetings.

In interleague play this season, the Astros posted a 15-5 record, while the Dodgers put together a dominating 16-4 mark. Houston mainly faced the NL East, while Los Angeles took on the AL Central, but each team crossed into the other Western division for their rivalry series with the Astros facing the D-backs for four games and the Dodgers meeting up with the Angels.

Props

Series Price

Houston +146
Los Angeles -166

Series Outcome

Houston in 4 games 16/1
Houston in 5 games 7/1
Houston in 6 games 13/2
Houston in 7 games 11/2

Los Angeles in 4 games 8/1
Los Angeles in 5 games 6/1
Los Angeles in 6 games 7/2
Los Angeles in 7 games 4/1

When Will Series End?

Game 4 – 6/1
Game 5 – 11/4
Game 6 – 2/1
Game 7 – 2/1

World Series - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

We've finally got to the Fall Classic for 2017 and it should be an exciting one between the Astros and Dodgers.

Both teams were absolutely dominant for long stretches of 2017 and absolutely deserve to be here. L.A does enter the World Series on more of a roll having gone 7-1 SU in eight playoff games so far and are the prohibitive favorites to win it all, 29 years after their last World Series title in 1988.

Houston has never won a World Series in franchise history, but getting a championship 12 years after their first World Series appearance as an organization would be tremendous vindication for a franchise that underwent a massive rebuilding project at the beginning of this decade to peak right now.

Series prices and various props are another way to have action on this World Series and there are a few that I like.

Let's get right to them as we look to cash a few more tickets for the 2017 MLB campaign.

World Series Winner: Houston Astros (+146)

The Dodgers will be the more popular pick here and have already seen significant support since this number was released, but I can't pass up the value here with the underdogs from Houston. The Astros were an offensive juggernaut for nearly all of 2017, and the fact that they finished the year as the best playoff team – that made it to at least the LDS - hitting team against southpaws is an advantage for them in this series that many are overlooking. Three of the first four starters for L.A are southpaws and with the potential for five of the seven games featuring a lefty on the hill to start for L.A, this Astros team that's teed off on lefties could get their offense rolling early on. Houston also was the best hitting team against righties in baseball this year and the one starter – Yu Darvish – for L.A that is right-handed, is a guy that these Astros hitters know very well from his time in Texas.

Conversely, for all the dominance the Dodgers showed in 2017, they were a below-the-middle-of-the-pack offensive team against righties. With Houston's only southpaw starter being Dallas Keuchel, those splits working in Houston's favor could play a huge role in Games 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7.

With more pressure being on L.A in this series given their extensive payroll, this talented Houston team should be able to be looser out there from the start, and having found their offense again in the last two games against New York in the ALCS, this Houston team is simply too dangerous offensively to not like the value at this price.

World Series Handicap Play: Houston Astros -1.5 games (+250)

Along those same lines with Houston, if they are able to steal one of the first two games in L.A, the rest of the series really sets up well for them. Houston was 53-28 SU on the road this year (tied for best in MLB), and while many will point to their three straight losses in New York last round as cause for concern, getting at least one of the first two in L.A against two lefties may I add isn't a longshot by any means.

Games 3, 4, and 5 are all back in Houston, and running off three straight at home isn't unheard of for this team. The Astros are a perfect 6-0 SU at home in these playoffs and four of those six wins have been by multiple runs. They've got the offense that can put up crooked numbers in a hurry – even on L.A – and while calling the Astros to win in five may be a stretch (Astros in 5 is listed at +700 if you're interested), I would not be surprised to see it happen.

But if Houston needs at least six games to win it all – and cash this bet – they project out to have ALCS MVP Justin Verlander on the hill for that Game 6 in L.A. We've all seen how dominant Verlander has been for the Astros in these playoffs, and I wouldn't like betting against him in any start this series. At +250, the value is there to back Houston to win before this reaches Game 7.

World Series MVP Picks: George Springer (20/1) and/or Carlos Correa (25/1)

I'm sticking with the Houston theme and going with two of the catalysts in their offense that are typically 1st and 4th in the batting order. Eleven of the past 13 World Series MVP's have been position players as they've got more opportunities to impact the game(s) then a single starter or closer does, and no matter who you lean on, taking a position player is probably the way to go.

Springer is the leadoff guy for the Astros and if he's able to get it going by getting on base and continually putting pressure on the Dodgers staff because of it, the Dodgers are in deep trouble. Springer's speed on the basepaths, power in the box, and ability to hit the ball anywhere on the field make him a guy L.A has to be supremely worried about in this series. Springer can be a little loose with pitch selection at times and can go into slumps with multiple strikeouts, but his .301 average vs lefties this year bodes well for him to get it going early in this series and force action right down the lineup. Oh, and he's an elite center-fielder on defense that will no doubt have one or two highlights with the glove in this series. I'm buying Springer at 20/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $2,000)!

In Correa's case, he's another guy that absolutely pounds left-handed pitching to the tune of a .391 average, and with those kind of numbers and him batting clean-up, Correa's in a great spot to do a lot of damage in this series if the Astros are to win. Correa was one of the cornerstones of Houston's rebuild years ago and while the other guy up the middle of the infield in Jose Altuve is likely to get the regular season MVP – and subsequently more love for World Series MVP odds (7/1) from bettors – this World Series could very well end up being Correa's coming out party on the big stage and cement his status as one of the best young players in the game today. Place another buy order, this time at 25/1 odds.