Philadelphia (8-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-3)
After getting a Game 1 gem from southpaw Cliff Lee, the Phillies hand the ball to Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.14 ERA) looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the World Series, while the Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.07) in the Bronx.
Lee, making his first-ever World Series start, pitched a complete-game six-hitter on Wednesday, surrendering just one ninth-inning unearned run while striking out 10 to lead the defending champions to 6-1 victory in Game 1 of this best-of-7 series. Chase Utley provided the early scoring with a pair of solo home runs, and Philadelphia then gave Lee two insurance runs in both the eighth and ninth innings to win its fourth consecutive game in this postseason and steal home-field advantage in this series.
Philadelphia is now 19-5 in its last 24 playoff contests, including 7-2 on the road (4-1 this year) and 5-1 in the Fall Classic. Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 7-1 overall and 11-3 as an underdog (9-3 as a road pup). However, Charlie Manuel’s club has dropped nine of 13 interleague games, all against the A.L. East., and it is 15-36 in its last 51 interleague contests against right-handed starters.
The Yankees, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, lost for the first time in six home playoff games. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, still sports impressive runs of 48-20 overall, 41-11 at new Yankee Stadium, 13-4 after a loss, 41-12 as a favorite, 45-18 against right-handed starters, 5-1 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-26 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven of eight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 11 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.
Philadelphia is now 3-1 against New York this year, having taken two of three in the Bronx in late May in a weekend interleague series. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has now won seven of the last nine meetings.
Martinez has been on the mound just once since Sept. 30, and that was in Game 2 of the NLCS in Los Angeles, and the former Cy Young winner was brilliant, holding the Dodgers to two hits and no walks in seven scoreless innings. He departed with a 1-0 lead, but his bullpen couldn’t close the deal and Philadelphia fell 2-1. Despite that setback, the Phillies are 8-2 behind Martinez, who signed a free-agent contract in July and didn’t make his first start with the big club until Aug. 12.
With his performance at Dodger Stadium, Martinez is now 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA in five road starts this year and 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 14 lifetime playoff appearances (12 starts). Martinez also has a long history against the Yankees going back to his days pitching for the Red Sox and Mets, going 12-13 with a 3.41 ERA in 38 career games (including the postseason). Most recently, Martinez faced New York last June when he was with the Mets, and he got rocked for six runs in 5 2/3 inning of a 9-0 home loss. Including two playoff starts in 2004, the Yankees are 7-2 the last nine times they’ve seen Martinez.
Burnett failed to get a decision in any of his first three playoff starts (two against the Angels, one against the Twins). The right-hander, pitching in his first postseason, was sharp in the first two outings, both at home, allowing a combined three runs on six hits in 12 1/3 innings, with New York pulling out a pair of 4-3 extra-inning victories. However, his last time out, Burnett got rocked in Game 5 in Anaheim, yielding six runs – including four before recording an out in the bottom of the first inning – on eight hits in six innings, with New York erasing the 4-0 deficit but eventually losing, 7-6.
Prior to the Game 5 loss to the Angels, the Yankees had won five straight games behind Burnett and they’re 11-2 in his last 13 outings in the Bronx (3-0 last three). Including his two solid playoff starts at home, Burnett is 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 18 games at new Yankee Stadium, with New York going 14-4.
Burnett suffered a 7-3 home loss to the Phillies on May 22, getting crushed for five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. He’s 5-8 with a beefy 7.50 ERA in 17 lifetime games (16 starts) against Philadelphia. In the last five starts versus the Phillies, Burnett surrendered 25 runs (23 earned) on 32 hits (seven home runs) over just 24 innings (8.63 ERA), with the Phillies going 4-1.
All four Yankees-Phillies games this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 8-1 the past nine meetings overall and 5-0 in the last five in the Bronx.
As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-7-2 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 13-4 on the road, 15-5-2 against right-handed starters, 3-1-1 on Thursday. However, the under is 10-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 13 interleague road games, 4-1-1 in their last six against the A.L. East, 10-4-1 in their last 15 as an underdog in interleague action, 4-1-1 in the World Series and 5-2 behind Martinez.
New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 8-2-2 against right-handed starters, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the N.L. East, 14-3 in the World Series and 7-0 in World Series home games. Also, with Burnett on the mound, the under is on runs of 5-2-1 overall and 12-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees
Phillies: The Yankees haven’t seen the last of Pedro Martinez after all. The 38-year-old right-hander takes the mound for Game 2. He last pitched in the Bronx in 2005. Martinez went 5-1 with a 3.65 ERA in nine starts down the stretch after signing a one-year deal with Philadelphia during the All-Star break. In 14 playoff appearances, Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. “I think he’s still got quite a bit left,” Phillies manager Charlie Manual said. In 38 career outings versus the Yankees, Martinez is 12-13 with a 3.41 ERA. He last faced the Yankees in postseason in the 2004 ALCS. Martinez is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in six playoff appearances versus the Yankees. The Phillies have won six of their last eight games. Chase Utley has reached base safely in a record 26 straight postseason games. The Phillies are 7-2 in their past nine road playoff contests.
The Over has cashed in 6 of Philadelphia’s last seven road games versus a right-handed starter.
The Over is 13-4 in the Phillies’ last 17 road contests.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Yankees (-$1.85, O/U 8.5): The Yankees are turning to A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA) to even the series for them. New York has won 11 of the past 13 times Burnett has started at Yankee Stadium. New York is 5-1 in Burnett’s past six overall starts. Burnett pitched better at home going 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA compared to 8-6 on the road with a 4.83 ERA. The weather forecast for today’s Game 2 is calling for mostly clear skies with a low of 48. New York has won seven of its last 10 playoff games. The Yankees have captured 41 of their last 52 home contests. The under has cashed in the Yankees’ last seven World Series home games. The under is 11-1-1 in New York’s last 13 games at Yankee Stadium. The under also is 8-2-2 in the Yankees’ last 12 games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher.
The Under is 13-6 in the Yankees’ last 19 interleague contests against a right-handed starter.
The Over is 18-7-1 in New York’s past 26 Thursday games.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)
After however many starts a pitcher has during the regular season, plus 5 give or take in the playoffs, Im not sure one or two more starts would be too strenuous.
The WBC does cause an issue because theyre coming off of winter break and havent practiced/warmed up at all, but one more 7 or even 5, making it one more outing per pitcher game series wouldnt kill them if its in line with the season, would it?
Granted, the first time a pitcher gets hurt in this would be the last time, but you know...
This is a great idea, and actually expands on the term "World" Series. Dont tell me I was the only one to chuckle at "Global World Series"... 😛