Game 3 Preview
By Brian Edwards
When A.J. Burnett came into the majors with the Marlins in 1999, he had stud written all over him. The hard-throwing righty was regularly clocked in the mid-90s with a sick curveball.
The thinking was that if Burnett ever developed great command of his pitches, he would be nearly untouchable. In 2001, his nastiness and struggles to locate were both on display when he threw a no-hitter at San Diego. It wasn’t a perfect game, though, because Burnett walked nine batters.
Despite all his potential, Burnett never became the Marlins’ ace in seven seasons with the club. Now some of that can be attributed to injuries, but I found it shocking that a pitcher with such great stuff only had a 49-50 record while playing for the Fish. When they won the 2003 World Series, Burnett was just a cheerleader who was out for the year with an elbow injury.
After signing a huge contract with the Blue Jays, Burnett produced just 20 wins in his first two seasons. But in 2008, he finally eclipsed the 12-win mark for a season, compiling an 18-10 record while leading the AL in K’s with 231. Burnett parlayed his career year into another hefty contract with the Yankees.
During the regular season in his first year wearing pinstripes, Burnett went 13-9 with a 4.04 ERA. Good stuff, but nothing sensational and certainly not worthy of his enormous contract numbers.
Those were the facts -- until Thursday night, that is. In Game 2 in the Bronx in a must-win for the Yankees, Burnett finally shed all the labels of inconsistency and unreached potential
In short, Burnett threw a gem in the Fall Classic. He worked seven strong innings and gave up just four hits and one earned run. Burnett fanned nine batters. After giving way to Mariano Rivera, the majors’ greatest closer ever took care of the rest.
Rivera got into a jam in the eighth but as usual, he got out of it by inducing a ground ball that turned into a double play. Rivera finished the job in the ninth for his fourth save of these playoffs, knotting the series at 1-1 with a 3-1 win as minus-200 favorites.
Bettors dodging the expensive straight price were able to cash run-line wagers thanks to the two-run victory. The four combined runs easily stayed ‘under’ the nine-run total.
MarkTeixeira and Hedeki Matsui provided the offense with a pair of solo homers off of familiar foe, Pedro Martinez. The former ace of the Red Sox for so many years was solid, but just not good enough on this night. Martinez worked six innings and fanned eight batters, but he gave up six hits and three earned runs.
The World Series now shifts to the City of Brotherly Love for Game 3 on Saturday night at 7:55 p.m. Eastern on Fox. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New York as a minus-115 favorite with a total of nine ‘under’ (minus-120). As of Friday night, most books had the Yankees at minus-120 with the total at nine ‘under’ (minus-115). Gamblers can back the Yankees on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).
Joe Girardi will give the ball to Andy Pettitte for his 12th career World Series start. The veteran left-hander is 3-4 with a 3.62 in 11 previous starts during the Fall Classic. Pettitte, who went 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 32 regular-season starts, is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three postseason assignments this year.
Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel will counter Pettitte with another southpaw, Cole Hamels. The 25-year-old hurler has struggled in the playoffs so far, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three outings. However, Hamels was sensational in the postseason last year, posting a 4-0 record and 1.80 ERA in five starts.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
In his first World Series, Alex Rodriguez is 0-for-8 with six strikeouts. Seriously, is anybody surprised by that? I know I’m not. A-Roids has never been a team player and has never thrived when it counts in October. Sure, he was outstanding in the ALDS and ALCS, but wasn’t it about time? The Yankees were steady ring collectors before A-Rod’s circus act arrived in the Bronx. They have no rings since then and it says here that that’s not changing in 2009.
Philadelphia drew first blood in the series with a 6-1 win Wednesday in Game 1. Cliff Lee worked a complete-game masterpiece, while Chase Utley provided the offense with a pair of homers off of C.C. Sabathia. Gamblers backing the Phillies in Game 1 took home a generous plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160), while the seven combined runs stayed ‘under’ the 7 ½-run tally.
Manuel announced Friday that Joe Blanton will get the starting nod in Game 4 on Sunday night. That means that Lee will pitch on regular rest in Game 5.
Phillies’ reliever Ryan Madson worked a scoreless inning in the bottom of the eighth, scattering one hit while striking out the side. Closer Brad Lidge has yet to appear in the series.
The winner of Game 1 (the Phillies) has won the World Series six straight years and 11 of the last 12.
Yankees owner George Steinbrenner was at Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. But due to his failing health, not many people laid eyes on the 79-year-old Boss.
vegasinsider.com
World Series Game 3
Total of only 11 runs scored in first two World Series games. Pettitte is 2-0, 2.37 in three playoff starts; he gave up four runs in seven IP vs the Phillies back on May 23, a game Bronx won later on 5-4. He has career playoff mark of 16-8, 3.93 in 38 postseason starts. Hamels is 1-1, 6.75 in three starts this month; he has 5-2, 3.36 record in nine career playoff starts. He allowed two runs in six IP at Bronx back in May, in game the Phillies won in extra innings.
Yanks favored in Game 3
By AllStar.com
The World Series heads south on I-95 to Philadelphia for a pivotal Game 3. Good news for the Phils who are 11 – 1 the past two years at Citizen’s Bank Ball Park in postseason games. After a stellar pitching performance by A.J. Burnett and two shut out innings by closer Mariano Rivera, the Yanks evened up the series at a game apiece. So far the narrative of the 2009 World Series has been excellent starting pitching. Cliff Lee dominated the power hitting Yankees by tossing a complete game with zero earned runs. Philly Game 2 starter, Pedro Martinez, tossed 6+ innings giving up three runs. The two Yankee starters, Sabathia and Burnett, combined to go 14 innings and gave up only three earned runs combined.
As the series moves to Game 3, the quality of the starters declines a bit. Both bullpens have yet to be really worked and the Yanks have not even seen Philly closer Brad Lidge. While, the Phils got a good 39 pitch look at Rivera on Thursday night.
PITCHING BREAKDOWN FOR GAME 3:
PHILADELPHIA:
First off, the former Philly ace has not had a quality start in his last six outings beginning in late September. The 2008 World Series and NLCS MVP is 1 - 1 with a 6.75 ERA in his three 2009 postseason starts. This includes giving up four earned runs in a five-inning outing against the Colorado Rockies. He made two starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers where he earned one win but gave up seven runs in only 9.2 innings of work. He has allowed 11 runs on 20 hits in a total of 14 1/3 innings and his opponents are hitting .328 against him. However, Hamels does have a 2.77 ERA against the Yankees in two career starts.
NEW YORK:
Fellow left-hander Andy Pettitte pitched the clinching Game 6 of the ALCS against the Angels last Sunday night. That win earned the 37-year-old his 16th postseason victory and made him baseball’s all-time postseason wins leader. Pettitte has had a very consistent season with a record of 14-8 and an ERA of 4.16 in 32 starts and 194.2 innings. In all three of his postseason outings, he has pitched 6 1/3 innings, never allowing more than three runs. Most importantly for Pettitte, the control problems that have bothered him at times this season have diminished. In his three postseason outings, he has struck out 15 batters and walked three.
In seven World Series starts, Pettitte is 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA. He did face the Phils this season where he pitched seven innings and gave up four earned runs. The Yankees won that game with a Brad Lidge blown save. Pettitte clearly does not have the “stuff’ that Sabathia and Burnett can throw at a hitter, however, Pettitte’s lifetime numbers against the Phils are outstanding. Ryan Howard is 1-for-9 and Chase Utley is 1-for-7.
NOTES:
So far Alex Rodriguez is 0-for-8 with six strikeouts in his first two World Series games. Fellow slugger Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 in Thursday night’s game.
The weather in Philadelphia this weekend is expected to be clear and cool with temperatures possibly reaching the 70s on Saturday.
N.Y. Yankees (8-3) at Philadelphia (8-3)
All tied at 1-1, the 2009 World Series shifts to Citizens Bank Park, where the host Phillies are scheduled to hand the ball to 2008 postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.49 ERA), while the Yankees counter with veteran Andy Pettitte (16-8, 4.00) in another battle of southpaws.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with a 3-1 victory in Game 2 on Thursday, getting solo homers from Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui to go with a stellar pitching performance from A.J. Burnett, who yielded one run on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings.
New York, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, snapped a four-game World Series losing streak with Thursday’s win. The Yankees enter Game 3 on positive runs of 49-20 overall, 40-13 as a favorite, 11-4 as a road chalk, 6-1 against the N.L. East, 5-0 in interleague road games, 37-15 against left-handed starters, 9-3 versus lefties on the road and 5-2 on Saturday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 7-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 10 playoff road games and six of seven World Series roadies.
Philadelphia had a four-game World Series winning streak halted in Game 2, but is still 19-6 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 12 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-15 overall at home, 11-3 as an underdog, 17-7 as a home ‘dog, 5-1 as a playoff pup, 38-14 after a day off and 37-16 versus southpaw starters. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 10 of 14 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East), six straight interleague contests at home and six in a row on Saturday.
Philadelphia is now 3-2 against New York this year, with all five games played in the Bronx. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won seven of the last 10 meetings, with the Yankees going 4-1 in their last five at Citizens Bank Park.
Pettitte delivered three straight quality starts in the first two rounds of the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA. He pitched 6 1/3 innings in all three games while surrendering a total of five runs, 17 hits and three walks while striking out 15. The 37-year-old veteran has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, but New York is just 3-4 during this stretch. Despite that fact, behind Pettitte, the Yankees are on upticks of 10-4 overall, 8-1 as a favorite, 38-18 as a road chalk and 18-6 against the A.L. East.
Including two playoff outings, Pettitte is 9-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 18 road starts, with New York going 12-6. He’s made seven career starts against Philadelphia, going 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA, including 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two games at Citizens Bank Park. Finally, Pettitte holds the record for most postseason victories, as he’s 16-9 with a 3.83 ERA in 38 career playoff starts.
Hamels was magnificent in October during the Phillies’ championship season last year, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two World Series outings (both Phillies wins). However, last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP has struggled this postseason, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts (one against Colorado, two against Los Angeles), but his team won the two NLCS contests against the Dodgers. Hamels has gone six straight starts without a quality outing, giving up 24 runs (all earned) in 31 1/3 innings (6.89 ERA).
Hamels yielded seven runs in 9 1/3 innings in his two playoff home starts, and including those contests, he’s 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA in Philadelphia this season. The San Diego native has faced New York twice in his career, both times in interleague play (one home, one road), and he allowed two runs in each contest over 13 innings (2.77 ERA). On May 24 in the Bronx, Hamels held the Yankees to two runs on eight hits over six innings, getting a no-decision as the Phillies won 4-3 in extra innings.
All five meetings between these teams this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
Despite staying low in the first two games of the World Series, Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-2-1 in these playoffs, 3-0-1 at home, 8-1-1 after a defeat, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a day off and 6-0 in the third game of a series. With Hamels pitching, the over is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 7-2-1 on Saturday, but the under is 5-1 in Hamels’ last six interleague starts (all against the A.L. East).
The Yankees continue to cash “under” tickets, as the low side is on runs of 7-2-1 overall, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the A.L. East, 7-1-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 versus lefty starters, 16-5 in the World Series, 7-3 in World Series road games, 16-5-2 as a favorite, 6-1-1 after an off day and 16-4-2 after a victory. Also, with Pettitte on the mound, New York is on “under” rolls of 46-20-3 overall, 34-15-2 on the road, 37-16-1 as a favorite, 15-5-1 in interleague action and 10-2 against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Yankees (-$1.18, O/U 9): Scoring just four runs, the Yankees are lucky to be tied 1-1 going into tonight’s Game 3. Alex Rodriguez is 0-for-8 in the World Series with six strikeouts. Despite this, New York is favored with Andy Pettitte taking the mound. The 37-year-old Pettitte is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three postseason outings with 15 strikeouts and just three walks. Pettitte has held Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to a combined two-for-16 lifetime against him. The left-hander is 2-2 career-wise versus Philadelphia with a 3.67 ERA in seven regular-season starts. Pettitte last pitched at Citizens Bank Park in 2006. In 11 career World Series starts, Pettitte is 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA. New York is 10-4 in Pettitte’s last 14 starts. Manager Joe Girardi must decide whether to sit or play Hideki Matsui in the outfield because there is no DH in a National League park for the World Series.
The Yankees are 37-15 in their last 52 games versus a left-handed starter.
New York has lost 8 of its last 10 playoff road contests.
Key injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Phillies: Philadelphia has won 11 of its last 12 playoff home games. Phillies starter Cole Hamels won last year’s World Series MVP honors against Tampa Bay, but is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three National League playoff starts this season. The southpaw has yielded 20 hits, 11 runs and been tagged for six homers in 14 1/3 innings. Playoff opponents are batting .328 against him. “I look at Hamels and I still feel he’s got the game in him,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. Hamels is 0-1 lifetime versus the Yankees with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts. Ryan Howard is batting just .222 with six strikeouts in the World Series. Nine of the last 10 teams to win Game 3 when the World Series was tied 1-1 went on to capture the championship. The Phillies are 20-7 in their last 27 home contests when facing a left-handed starter.
The Over is 18-6-2 in the Phillies’ last 26 games.
The Phillies are 17-7 in their last 24 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4