N.Y. Yankees (9-3) at Philadelphia (8-4)
Looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the best-of-7 World Series at Citizens Bank Park when they send ace CC Sabathia (22-9, 3.15) to the mound on three days’ rest. The Phillies have elected to hand the ball to Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.08), who will be making his second start of this postseason.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with Thursday’s 3-1 victory in Game 2 followed by an 8-4 rout in Game 3 on Saturday. New York rallied from a 3-0 deficit, scoring two runs in the fourth inning, three in the fifth and single runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth to take 2-1 series lead. The game featured six home runs (three from each team), and Andy Pettitte got the win, allowing four runs on five hits while striking out seven in six innings.
New York, back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2003, have won consecutive World Series games following a four-game losing streak on baseball’s marquee stage. The Yankees enter Game 4 on positive runs of 50-20 overall, 41-13 as a favorite, 12-4 as a road chalk, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 6-0 in interleague road games, 46-18 against right-handed starters and 46-21 on Sunday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 8-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 11 playoff road games and six of eight World Series roadies.
Philadelphia is still 19-7 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 13 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-16 overall at home, 11-4 as an underdog, 17-8 as a home ‘dog, 5-2 as a playoff pup, 37-17 versus southpaw starters and 40-13 on Sunday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 11 of 15 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East) and seven straight interleague contests at home.
These teams have now split six meetings this year, with the first five games played in New York. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won eight of the last 11 head-to-head matchups, with the Yankees going 5-1 in their last six at Citizens Bank Park.
Sabathia’s brilliant postseason continued in Game 1 on Wednesday, as he held the Phillies to two runs on four hits over seven innings, but both runs were Chase Utley sole homers and Sabathia got tagged with a 6-1 defeat in the Bronx. Despite that, he’s still 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in four playoff starts, striking out 26 in 29 2/3 innings.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 14 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.59 ERA (18 earned runs allowed in 102 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-2 in Sabathia’s last 16 trips the hill, with all 14 victories being by multiple runs. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 7-1 on the road and 10-2 against winning teams.
Sabathia is 13-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 road starts this year (New York is 13-7), including a 10-1 victory at the Angels in his only playoff start on the highway this fall. However, he’s now 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, with Philadelphia winning four of those games, including two this year against the Yankees and a 5-2 NLCS victory last year when Sabathia was pitching with the Brewers. The latter start with Milwaukee was Sabathia’s lone previous appearance at Citizens Bank Park.
Blanton hasn’t pitched since Oct. 19, when he faced the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS, and he yielded four runs (three earned) on six hits in six innings at home. He was set to lose 4-3 before Philadelphia scored two runs with two outs in the ninth inning to steal a 5-4 victory. Blanton also made two appearances in the first round against Colorado, allowing a total of two runs in 3 2/3 innings, so he’s got a 4.66 ERA this postseason.
With Blanton starting, the Phillies are on positive runs of 4-1 overall, 8-2 at home and 9-0 when he works on Sunday. Including the playoff start against the Dodgers, the big right-hander is 7-4 with 3.86 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) at Citizens Bank Park. However, he’s 0-3 with a hefty 8.18 ERA in four career starts against New York (all when Blanton was pitching with Oakland). The Yankees won all four games by a combined score of 28-10.
The first five meetings between these teams this season had stayed under the total before last night’s home-run fest soared over the posted price. Still, the under is 4-2 in the last six clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four road games, but otherwise they’re on “under” rolls of 7-3-1 overall, 17-7 in interleague play, 16-7 versus the A.L. East, 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk, 16-6 in the World Series, 7-4 in World Series road games, 16-6-2 as a favorite, 8-2-2 against righty starters and 16-5-2 after a victory. However, with Sabathia on the hill, the over is on runs of 13-3 on the highway and 5-0 on Sunday.
Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 19-6-2 overall, 7-2-1 in these playoffs, 4-0-1 at home, 9-1-1 after a defeat and 4-0 on Sunday. The over is also 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts overall, but the under is 9-4-1 in his last 14 home efforts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Yankees (-$1.60, O/U 9): CC Sabathia is going on three days’ rest after throwing 113 pitches in a 6-1 Game 1 loss. Sabathia held every hitter in the Phillies lineup except Chase Utley to two hits over seven innings. Utley, though, homered twice. Sabathia is 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in four postseason starts this season. The big southpaw also pitched on three days’ rest in the league championship series beating the Angels 10-1 in Game 4. Sabathia allowed five hits in eight innings with five strikeouts. New York is 7-1 in Sabathia’s last eight road outings. The Yankees are 19-7 in Sabathia’s last 26 overall starts. New York has won 50 of its past 70 games. The over has cashed in 13 of Sabathia’s last 16 road starts. The under, though, is 7-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 10 games. The visiting team is 19-40 when Mike Everitt has been the home plate umpire.
The Yankees are 12-3 in their last 15 games during Game 4 of a series.
New York is 46-18 in its last 64 games versus a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)
Phillies: The Phillies are 19-8 in their last 27 playoff games, but have dropped their past seven interleague matchups. Right-hander Joe Blanton gets the start. He was 12-8 with a 4.05 ERA during the regular season. He received a no-decision in his only postseason start, allowing three earned runs in six innings in Game 4 of the National League championship series against the Dodgers. He made two relief appearances versus Colorado in the first round of the playoffs. Blanton is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA in four career starts versus the Yankees. He’s given up 22 hits – including five homers – and 12 walks in 22 innings. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez are a combined 13-for-34 (.382) against Blanton with five home runs. Philadelphia has won eight of Blanton’s last 10 starts. The Phillies are 9-0 in Blanton’s last nine Sunday starts. The under is 9-4-1 in Blanton’s last 14 home starts.
The Phillies are 36-16 in their last 52 home games.
The Phillies are 37-17 in their last 54 games versus a left-handed starter.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4