N.Y. Yankees (10-3) at Philadelphia (8-5)
The Yankees try to wrap up their record 27th world title when they send A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5 of the World Series against the Phillies and red-hot Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22).
With two outs and nobody on base in the top of the ninth inning, the Yankees got to Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge for three runs to break a 4-4 tie, and closer Mariano Rivera pitched a perfect bottom of the ninth inning to save a 7-4 victory in Game 4 on Sunday. Since suffering a 6-1 loss to Lee and the Phillies in Game 1 at home, New York has posted three straight multi-run victories, winning by the combined score of 18-10.
New York, looking for its 27th championship overall and first since 2000, have won three straight World Series games following a four-game losing streak on baseball’s marquee stage. The Yankees enter Game 5 on positive runs of 51-20 overall, 8-1 against the N.L. East and 7-0 in interleague road games. The only negatives for Joe Girardi’s team: a 4-8 mark in its last 12 playoff road games and 3-6 in its last nine World Series roadies.
The Yankees are 13-1 all-time when taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series. The last time a team overcame a 3-1 World Series deficit was the Royals in 1985, but New York has lost three straight games just twice since the All-Star break.
Despite dropping the last three games in this series, Philadelphia is still 19-8 in the playoffs since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 14 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-17 overall at home, 21-7 on Monday and 4-1 in the fifth game of a season. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 12 of 16 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East) and 17 of 22 interleague contests at home, including the last eight in a row.
New York has now taken four of seven against Philadelphia this year, including a three-game interleague series in the Bronx in May. Going back to 1999, the Yankees are 11-6 against the Phillies. The visitor has won nine of the last 12 head-to-head matchups, with the Yankees going 6-1 in their last seven at Citizens Bank Park.
Burnett, who is pitching on three days’ rest tonight, dominated Philadelphia in Game 2 on Tuesday, squandering a run on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings en route to a 3-1 victory, the first postseason win of his career. Including three starts in the first two rounds, Burnett has given up 10 runs (all earned) in 25 1/3 innings (3.55 ERA). However, three of those starts came at home (1.86 ERA). In his one postseason road outing, Burnett got rocked for six runs on eight hits in six innings at the Angels, with the Yankees losing 7-6.
Take away the loss at the Angels, and New York has won six straight games behind Burnett, and the right-hander has yielded two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. He’s 8-6 with a 4.83 ERA in 18 road starts this year, with the Yankees splitting those 18 games, compared with 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 19 home starts (with New York going 15-4). Including the Game 2 victory, Burnett is now 6-8 with a 4.51 in 17 career games (16 starts) against the Phillies.
Lee twirled a complete-game masterpiece at Yankee Stadium in Game 1, outdueling CC Sabathia in leading Philadelphia to a 6-1 victory. The lone run the lefty gave up was unearned and came in the bottom of the ninth inning. He scattered six hits, didn’t walk anyone and struck out 10. Lee is 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA in four playoff starts (two earned runs allowed in 33 1/3 innings) with three walks allowed against 30 strikeouts. In his two postseason starts at Citizens Bank Park, Lee has surrendered one run in 17 innings.
Since being traded to the Phillies at the end of July, Lee has gone 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA in 16 starts, including 5-2 with a 3.13 ERA in nine outings at Citizens Bank (with Philadelphia going 7-2). Against the Yankees in his career, Lee is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 10 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in three games this season.
The first five meetings between these teams this season had stayed under the total but Games 3 and 4 in Philly soared over the posted price.
The Yankees are 4-0-1 “over” in their last five road games, but otherwise they’re on “under” rolls of 7-4-1 overall, 17-8 in interleague play, 16-8 versus the A.L. East and 16-6 in the World Series and 16-6-2 after a victory. Also, the under is 22-13-2 in Burnett’s starts this year, including 6-2 in the last eight. Meanwhile, Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 20-6-2 overall, 8-2-1 in these playoffs, 5-0-1 at home, 10-1-1 after a defeat and 4-1-1 against the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander AJ Burnett in this game. Burnett has a 14-9 record and a 3.99 ERA this season.
The Phillies will counter Burnett with ace Cliff Lee. Lefthander Lee has a 2.89 ERA to go along with a 17-13 record this season.
The Yankees defeated Philadelphia 7-4 as a -170 favorite in Game 4 on Sunday, and the 11 runs scored went OVER the posted total (8.5).
Jorge Posada drove in three runs for the Yankees and Johnny Damon was 3-5 with an RBI and two runs scored in that win.
Pedro Feliz was 3-4 with a home run and two RBI for the Phillies, while Chase Utley was 2-4 with a homer and two RBI.
Team records:
New York: 103-59 SU
Philadelphia: 93-69 SU
New York most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 9-1
After a win are 7-3
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing NY Yankees are 6-4
After playing NY Yankees are 1-9
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Next up:
Philadelphia at NY Yankees, Wednesday, November 4
Tips and Trends
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Yankees: The Yankees are going with A.J. Burnett in an effort win the World Series in five games. Burnett got the best of Pedro Martinez in a 3-1 victory in Game 2. Burnett has made three quality starts in four postseason outings this season going 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA. If you discount one bad inning against the Angels, the right-hander would have a 2.13 ERA. Burnett went 14-9 during the regular season with a 3.99 ERA. The Yankees have won six of his last seven starts. New York has won 10 of its last 13 postseason games. The Yankees have won 51 of their last 71 games. Derek Jeter has the highest batting average in the World Series of any starter at .412. Mariano Rivera has picked up saves in each of the last two nights, but has thrown just a combined 13 pitches.
The Yankees are 4-8 in their last 12 road playoff games.
The Under is 12-6-2 in New York’s past 20 games.
Key Injuries - Outfielder Melky Cabrera (leg) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Phillies (-$1.35, O/U 8.5): The Phillies will try to stave off elimination by pitching their ace, lefty Cliff Lee. The Game 1 winner has a 0.54 ERA in four postseason starts this season. Lee dominated New York in the opening game winning 6-1 at Yankee Stadium throwing a six-hitter. Lee is 3-0 this postseason. He has the seventh-best ERA of any pitcher in single postseason baseball history. Philadelphia has won 11 of its last 14 home playoff contests. Jayson Werth, though, is the only Phillies starter batting above .267. Worth is hitting .308. Slugging first baseman Ryan Howard is batting only .176. The Phillies are 36-17 in their past 53 home games. They are just 5-17, however, in their last 22 interleague games at Citizens Band Park. The over is 209-6-2 in the Phillies’ last 28 games. The two teams have gone under in five of their past seven meetings.
The Phillies have won 21 of their last 28 games on Monday.
The Over is 5-0-1 in the Phillies’ last six home games.
Key njuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)