Game 6 - Phillies at Yankees
By Kevin Rogers
The Yankees can close out their 27th World Series title on Wednesday, as they return home to host the Phillies in Game 6. Philadelphia stayed alive with an 8-6 victory on Monday to cut the series deficit to 3-2. The Phils received a pair of home runs from Chase Utley and another homer from Raul Ibanez to stave off a late Yankees' rally.
All three games at Citizens Bank Park sailed 'over' the total, while the two contests at Yankee Stadium finished 'under' the total. The losing team in each of the first two games scored just one run, as Pedro Martinez tries to save Philadelphia's season. Martinez pitched well enough to win Game 2, but allowed solo homers to Mark Teixiera and Hideki Matsui in a 3-1 loss. Martinez scattered six hits in six innings, while striking out eight, but the Phillies couldn't hit A.J. Burnett (the Phils got revenge in Game 5).
Andy Pettitte goes for his fourth win of the postseason, as the veteran lefty held off the Phillies' bats in the Game 3 victory. Pettitte even contributed an RBI in the 8-5 comeback victory, despite allowing a pair of homers. The Yankees' southpaw has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his four playoff starts, while winning his lone home start against the Angels, 5-2.
Even though Pettitte's last start flew 'over' the total, the lefty has been a solid 'under' play this season. Sixteen of Pettitte's 25 night starts and 11 of his 17 home outings have finished 'under' the total. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts to the run-line, if you are considering that route, instead of laying the long number strictly on the money-line.
Utley has been on fire for the Phillies, knocking out five homers in the series, including two in the series opener. On the flip side, Ryan Howard has struggled mightily, going 3 for 19 with only one RBI, while striking out 12 times. Jayson Werth was the only hitter to get to Pettitte in Game 3, hitting two homers. Meanwhile, Utley, Howard, Ibanez, and Shane Victorino went a combined 0 for 15 in that Game 3 loss.
In the Game 2 win against Martinez, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter combined for one hit in six at-bats, while striking out four times. After A-Rod's slow start in the World Series, the Yankees' third baseman went 4 for 10 in Philadelphia, while driving in six runs.
The winning team has captured every game by at least two runs, with the only underdog victory coming in the series opener by Cliff Lee and the Phillies, 6-1.
Chris David of VegasInsider.com says that bettors shouldn't rush to the window betting the 'over' in Game 6, "We're well aware that the oddsmakers create totals based on pitching matchups first and Game 6 features a pair of veterans that can be suspect at times. However, seeing the number listed at 9 ½ runs at some Las Vegas outfits make you wonder if the books are gearing for an 'over' rush?"
David notes that the two veterans taking the hill could be gearing up for an 'under' play, "Sure, Pettitte is pitching on short rest and the Phillies' bullpen has been shaky but Pedro is a gamer. All three games in Philadelphia went 'over' as the two teams combined for 38 runs. While the bats have been hot, gamblers following the Yankees should know that the 'under' has cashed in all seven postseason games this year in the Bronx."
VI capper Brian Edwards says the Yankees' strategy to put out three pitchers on short rest may backfire, "You wonder if Joe Girardi has out-foxed himself with Pettitte set to pitch on three days' rest. Burnett rarely throws on short rest and we saw him get rocked Monday in Game 5. Now Pettitte will try the same thing for the first time since the 2003 World Series. Meanwhile, Pedro is on regular rest and has pitched outstanding in the playoffs. Even in his Game 2 loss, Pedro threw well enough to win, but Burnett was just better on that night."
The Phillies still have work to do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for Philadelphia to grab this one, according to Edwards, "For the side in this game, I think you have to stay away from the Yankees at a 'chalky' -200. If gamblers insist on taking the Yankees, I think you go the run-line route for even money. As for me, I'm on the total strong and might get a very small taste of Philly for a plus-180 return."
The Yankees are listed as a $2.00 home favorite, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
vegasinsider.com
Philadelphia (9-5) at N.Y. Yankees (10-4)
The World Series shifts to back to Yankee Stadium where the Yankees will try once again to wrap up their record 27th world title when they send Andy Pettitte (17-8, 4.06 ERA) to the mound on three days’ rest for Game 6 while the Phillies counter with Pedro Martinez (5-2, 3.28).
Facing elimination, Philadelphia came out swinging in Game 5 on Monday, jumping out to 6-1 lead after three innings and holding on for an 8-6 home victory. Chase Utley hit two more home runs – giving him five in this World Series – and Cliff Lee picked up his second series win despite allowing a postseason-high five runs in seven innings.
Philadelphia is now 20-8 in the playoffs since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs 5-2 on the highway, 7-3 in playoff road games, 11-5 as an underdog, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 37-18 against left-handed starters, 38-15 after a day off and 4-0 on Wednesday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 12 of 17 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East).
New York, looking for its 27th championship overall and first since 2000, had a three-game losing skid snapped on Monday. Still, the Yankees enter Game 6 on a plethora of positive runs, including 51-21 overall, 42-11 at home, 6-1 in playoff home games, 9-3 in World Series home games, 9-1 as a playoff favorite, 8-2 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East), 59-26 when hosting National League opponents, 19-7 following a defeat, 47-18 against right-handed starters and 7-0 in interleague play against righties.
The Yankees are 13-1 all-time when taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series. The last time a team overcame a 3-1 World Series deficit was the Royals in 1985, but New York has lost three straight games just twice since the All-Star break.
These teams have now split eight meetings this season, including a three-game interleague series in the Bronx in May. Going back to 1999, the Yankees are 11-7 against the Phillies. The visitor has won nine of the last 13 head-to-head matchups.
Making just his second start since Sept. 30, Martinez held the Yankees to three runs on six hits over six innings in Game 2 of this series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, but he lost 3-1 as he was outdueled by A.J. Burnett. Including a Game 2 start at Dodger Stadium in the NLCS, Martinez has given up three runs on eight hits in 13 postseason innings (2.08 ERA), walking two and striking out 11. However, the Phillies lost both games by scores of 3-1 and 2-1 after going 8-1 in the veteran right-hander’s first nine starts this year. Martinez has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts and 10 of 11 since making his Phillies debut on Aug. 12.
Martinez is now 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA in six road starts this year, 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA in 15 career playoff games (13 starts), 12-14 with a 3.43 ERA in 39 lifetime appearances (38 starts) against New York (playoffs included) and 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 games (18 starts) in the Bronx.
Pettitte improved to 3-0 in this postseason on Saturday, guiding New York to an 8-5 victory in Philadelphia in Game 3, despite yielding four runs on five hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in six innings. New York is now 3-1 behind Pettitte in the playoffs, with the lefty giving up nine runs (all earned) on 22 hits in 25 innings (3.24 ERA). Prior to Saturday’s six-inning effort, Pettitte had gone exactly 6 1/3 innings in his first three postseason outings.
With Pettitte on the hill, New York is on incredible runs of 11-4 overall, 79-38 at home, 81-38 as a home favorite, 20-8 as a chalk overall, 7-1 in interleague play and 29-9 on Wednesday. Including one solid playoff outing against the Angels, the 37-year-old is 7-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 17 starts in new Yankee Stadium this season. The all-time leader in postseason victories, Pettitte is 17-9 with a 3.88 ERA in 39 career playoff starts, and with the Game 3 victory in Philadelphia, he’s 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies.
All three games in Philadelphia flew over the posted total after the first five meetings between these teams this season – all in the Bronx – stayed under the posted price.
The Yankees are now 5-2-1 “over” in their last eight overall in this postseason, but otherwise they’re still on “under” rolls of 35-17-3 at home (6-0-1 at home in these playoffs), 12-4-1 as a favorite, 6-2-1 after a day off, 17-9 in interleague play, 4-0 in interleague home games, 16-7 in the World Series, 7-0 in World Series home games, 8-3-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 on Wednesday. Finally, behind Pettitte, the under is on runs of 55-25-3 overall, 10-3 at home, 12-3-1 against the National League (10-3 vs. the N.L. East) and 46-21-1 when Pettitte is favored.
On the flip side, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 21-6-2 overall (6-1 last seven), 9-2-1 in these playoffs, 5-1-1 against the A.L. East, 7-3 as an underdog, 5-2-1 as a playoff pup, 5-1 against left-handed starters and 5-1 after a day off. However, the under is 5-2 in Martinez’s last seven starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Yankee Stadium in Game 6 of the World Series.
Righthander Pedro Martinez will take the mound for the Phillies to start this game. Martinez is 5-2 this season with a 3.28 ERA.
Meanwhile, it'll be Andy Pettitte who starts for the Yankees. Lefthander Pettitte is 17-8 with a 4.06 ERA so far this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 200-moneyline favorites versus the Phillies, while the game's total is sitting at 9½.
Chase Utley went 2-for-3 with two homers and four runs batted in to lead the Phillies past the Yankees 8-6 in Game 5 of the series on Monday night.
Philadelphia cashed as -155 home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 8.5-run total posted by oddsmakers.
Raul Ibanez was 2-for-4 with a solo shot and two RBIs for the Phillies, as Cliff Lee allowed five runs over seven innings to get the win for Philadelphia.
Alex Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with three RBIs for New York, while losing pitcher A.J. Burnett was rocked for six runs over two innings for the Yankees.
New York leads the best-of-seven series 3-2.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 93-69 SU
New York: 103-59 SU
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing NY Yankees are 5-5
After playing NY Yankees are 2-8
After a win are 6-4
New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After playing Philadelphia are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Yankees are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
NY Yankees are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games
Next up:
NY Yankees home to Philadelphia, Thursday, November 5
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees
Phillies: The Phillies have won 20 of their last 28 playoff games, but need to win to stay alive. The Phillies have won eight of the last 11 times Pedro Martinez has taken the mound. The veteran right-hander gave up three runs in six innings in a Game 2 loss at Yankee Stadium. Martinez was 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in just 44 2/3 innings since signing with the Phillies. Martinez was 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA at Citizens Band Park, but 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA on the road this season. Chase Utley has hit five home runs, tying him with Reggie Jackson for most homers in a World Series. The Phillies have out-homered New York, 10-5. However, Ryan Howard is batting just .158 in the Series with 12 strikeouts. Shane Victorino may not be 100 percent after getting hit in the hand with a pitch on Monday night.
The Over has cashed 7 of the last 10 times the Phillies have been an underdog.
The Over is 19-5-2 in Philadelphia’s past 26 games.
Key Injuries - Outfielder Shane Victorino (hand) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 4
Yankees (-$2.00, O/U 9): The Yankees have won the World Series in all eight previous times they were up 3-1. The Phillies staved off elimination by winning Game 5 at home, but New York only lost three games in a row twice after the All-Star break. Only once after mid-June did the Yankees lose consecutive home games. Andy Pettitte will be pitching on three days rest for the first time this season. The Yankees have won 11 of Pettitte’s last 15 starts. The southpaw’s statistics have been better on the road, though, where he was 10-4 with a 3.73 ERA compared to 7-4 at Yankee Stadium with a 4.40 ERA. The under has cashed in 10 of Pettitte’s last 13 home starts. The Yankees have cashed 40 of the past 52 times they’ve been a home favorite. They are 47-18 in their last 65 games when facing a right-handed starter.
The Under is 46-21-1 in Pettitte’s last 68 starts as a favorite.
The home team is 18-6 in the past 24 games Joe West has been the home plate umpire.
Key Injuries - Outfielder Melky Cabrera (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)