ASA: Future Forecast
October 23, 2007
Eastern Conference – Chicago Bulls – +500
The Eastern Conference looks like a complete toss up at first glance as eight teams could be considered legitimate conference title contenders. It’s the definition of parity. Quality teams abound across the board, a development that can be traced back to numerous big-name offseason acquisitions. The Bulls were one of the few East teams that didn’t make a huge offseason splash but that only means they have that much more continuity than the rest of the conference.
Chicago returns its top seven scorers from last year’s team and has imported free-agent signee Joe Smith and first-round draft pick Joakim Noah to help down low. Smith and Noah don’t solve the Bulls’ one glaring weakness, low-post scoring, but Chicago’s many strengths far outweigh that one weakness.
The perimeter-based foursome of Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni more than make up for the lack of scoring down low. Each player has excellent range as Deng is lethal from mid-range and Hinrich, Gordon and Nocioni can all hit from beyond the three-point line. The frontline of Ben Wallace, Tyrus Thomas, Smith and Noah might struggle to create their own offense but they are very opportunistic scorers and should get plenty of easy baskets.
Make no mistake about it, though, this team will win with defense. The Bulls were already a very good defensive team but the addition of Wallace made them great. They were second in the NBA in defensive field-goal percentage and rebounding and sixth in scoring defense. This year should be no different. For everything the Chicago front line doesn’t do on offense, they more than make up for it on defense.
Boston may have the new Big 3 but it also has no depth. Detroit may have experience but it’s also an aging group. Cleveland is the defending conference champ but it has done nothing to fix the problems that plagued it last year. The rest of the conference is full of holes as well. The Bulls are most complete team in the conference with fewer holes than any other team.
Chicago has gradually made improvements over the years, advancing to the conference semifinals a year ago. This is the season the Bulls make that big leap forward and contends for a championship. Expect Chicago to make its first trip to the NBA Finals since a guy named Jordan was the team captain.
Western Conference – San Antonio Spurs – +225
It’s hard to not go with the Spurs as the favorite to take the Western Conference and advance to the NBA Finals for the second consecutive season. They went 16-4 in the playoffs last year en route to winning their fourth title of the Tim Duncan era. They won 58 games during the regular season. And they return their top 11 players from a year ago, with only the little-used Jackie Butler no longer with the team.
While the San Antonio role players – namely Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Brent Barry and Robert Horry – are starting to show their age, the All-Star core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli is still relatively young. The Spurs are also one of the league’s most consistently healthy teams, as their top six scorers missed just 26 combined games last year. Couple that with head coach Gregg Popovich’s ability to keep this team constantly motivated and San Antonio is a threat for the conference crown year-in and year-out.
The one constant with title-winning teams is defense and there hasn’t been a better, more consistent defense in the NBA over the years than San Antonio’s. The Spurs have been in the top three in scoring defense every year since 1997 and there’s no reason to believe it will be any different this year. San Antonio led the NBA with just 90.1 points allowed per game last year and held opponents to just a 44.3 field-goal percentage.
The Western Conference is full of potential championship contenders but San Antonio has fewer questions than any other contending team. Will Dallas be able to rebound from its first-round exit of a year ago? Can Phoenix avoid potential chemistry issues and fatigue come playoff time? Can Tracy McGrady ever get out of the first round of the playoffs? The Spurs have no such questions.
Continuity plays an integral role in the success of an NBA team. And there’s no team in the league with more continuity than San Antonio. It has played the same, extremely successful style for the last decade. It returns almost its entire team from a year ago. And, most importantly, it knows how to win in the postseason.
Only one goal had eluded the Spurs over the years. They have never made back-to-back trips to the NBA Finals. This will be the year that goal is reached.
Bull market: NBA Central Division betting preview
Covers.com
The Central Division holds many intriguing questions. Has the Detroit Pistons’ time passed them by? Do the Chicago Bulls have a go-to scorer in crunch time? Was Cleveland’s Finals appearance a fluke?
Here’s a betting preview tackling these questions along with my take on how Central Division teams will finish this year:
Chicago Bulls
Last season’s numbers: 49-33 SU, 40-41-1 ATS, 38-43-1 O/U
General manager John Paxson didn’t pull the trigger on a deal to get Pau Gasol and was never in the running for Kevin Garnett. As a result Paxson had to fill the team’s non-existent low-post scoring by signing Joe Smith.
Smith is a serviceable power forward, but the Bulls hope Tyrus Thomas can earn the starting job. Thomas doesn’t have a back-to-the-basket game but there are only a handful of players in the league who can match this kid’s athletic ability.
The center, point and shooting guard positions are team strengths with quality starters (Ben Wallace, Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon) and above average backups (Joakim Noah, Chris Duhon and Thabo Sefolosha).
The difference between Chicago being a good club and a championship contender is Luol Deng. If the small forward continues to improve he could become the superstar playmaker the franchise hasn’t seen since they traded away Elton Brand (smart move Jerry Krause).
Depth is Chicago’s strength and head coach Scott Skiles knows how to get the most out of his bench. Vegas oddsmakers are high on the Bulls – projecting them to win 48 ½ games. I see this squad improving on last year’s 49 wins by four or five, so I’ll take the over.
Detroit Pistons
53-29 SU, 43-37-2 ATS, 36-44-2 O/U
Another year gone; another year older. GM Joe Dumars has long been credited for building a balanced, check-your-ego-at-the-door roster, but he gets off the hook for some questionable decisions. Drafting Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony … how’d that work out? Letting Mehmet Okur leave?
Of course it’s difficult to criticize the man responsible for bringing Detroit back to the top of the East. I’m just saying he shouldn’t get a free pass.
The core of Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace remains intact keeping the Pistons in the East’s elite. This veteran-heavy squad isn’t focused on winning regular season games. The only goal for this well-oiled unit is another championship ring.
For this to happen the big four will have to stay healthy, particularly Billups. Backup point guard is a soft area and it became exposed when Billups missed eight games (2-6 against the spread during that stretch).
The books have the season win total for Detroit set 50 ½ which seems like the right number. Since I’m pressed to give an over/under pick I’ll say over by one or two games. Keep in mind, though, winning the Central doesn’t mean nearly as much to the Pistons as it does to the Bulls.
Cleveland Cavaliers
50-32 SU, 43-37-2 ATS, 39-42-1 O/U
Cleveland won the Eastern Conference for the first time in the franchise’s 37-year history, but was completely outplayed by the San Antonio Spurs. Obviously the season was a success but I expect a backward step before a forward one for the Cavs in 2007-08.
This team is a scatter of mismatched fragments – much like a toddler trying to smash puzzle pieces in the wrong spot. LeBron James’ supporting cast doesn’t really fit the King’s immense skills. This should be a running team with big men who can finish and guards who can knock down open shots.
Instead the club possess two guards who can’t shoot (Larry Hughes and Eric Snow), an aging center who’s a defensive liability (Zydrunas Illgaukas) and a power forward who shows up once a week (Drew Gooden).
Daniel Gibson and Anderson Varejao both complement James’ game, but each are best suited coming off the pine.
Oddsmakers see the Cavs compiling 49 ½ wins this season based on last season’s strong finish. I’ll gladly take the under here. I don’t see Cleveland winning more than 45.
Milwaukee Bucks
28-54 SU, 37-43 ATS, 47-34-1 O/U
You can’t talk about the Bucks’ 2006-07 season without mentioning the medical headaches. Four of their five starters missed significant portions of the year. When the Bucks are healthy they’ve got the firepower to outscore any opponent any day of the week.
Michael Redd and Mo Williams form the most underrated backcourts in the league and the frontcourt is serviceable with the potential to improve drastically.
Andrew Bogut isn’t flashy and some wonder how the pivot was taken ahead of budding stars like Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Well, 7-footers who can shoot, pass and rebound don’t grow on trees. Big men generally take longer to develop but it’s fair to say Bogut is already one of the top three centers in the East.
Head coach Larry Krystkowiak has an assortment of forwards who excel in different areas. Charlie Villanueva should play the majority of minutes at the four spot with Bobby Simmons and Desmon Mason manning the small forward position.
Don’t expect much from rookie Yi Jianlian. The fifth overall pick in the June draft is at least a couple seasons away from making an impact.
Milwaukee is not as bad as last year’s record indicates. If I had any guts, I’d put the Bucks ahead of the Cavs in the Central. I can’t do it because (aside from being gutless) I think this team plays without interest on the defensive side of the court far too often. I’d still take the over with a projected win total set at 35 ½.
Attention total bettors: The Bucks can flat-out shoot the rock. Milwaukee tied for the second-best over record last year and the trend should continue if its players can stay out of the trainers’ office.
Indiana Pacers
Last season’s key numbers: 35-47 SU, 38-42-2 ATS, 44-38 O/U
I have a feeling things are going to get worse in Hoosier country before it gets better. The Pacers finished with their worst record since 1988 last season and they return with pretty much the same roster. A failed attempt to move All-Star Jermaine O’Neal left management caught with its pants down.
O’Neal is a premier low-post scorer who commands double teams in the blocks. The problem is his slight frame leaves him vulnerable to injuries. The six-time All-Star hasn’t played more than 70 games in any of the last four seasons.
Larry Bird, the club’s president of basketball operations, tried to rebuild the club on the fly with a huge midseason trade. He sent Al Harrington and troublemaker Stephen Jackson to the West Coast for Mike Dunleavy Jr., Troy Muphy and Ike Diogu. Things didn’t pan out the way Bird had hoped and the Pacers fizzled out of playoff contention.
New head coach Jim O’Brien was brought in to rededicate the team towards its defensive roots. O’Brien has a reputation as a coach obsessed with maximum effort from his defenders. Indiana may return to a solid under play with O’Brien at the helm. This is no knock on former coach Rick Carlisle. I just think his players started tuning him out.
Unless O’Neal can shed the label of Band-Aid and Danny Granger dramatically improves – Indiana will see its win total plummet. Oddsmakers show much more confidence in the Pacers (season win total set at 37 ½) than this writer. I think the under is a no-brainer.
Trading spaces: NBA Atlantic Division betting forecast
Covers.com
It’s the middle of October, which means slams and jams will soon be part of our morning highlights. Covers previews the 2007-08 season division-by-division so you’ll be fully prepared for tip off.
We start our breakdown with the Atlantic, a division whose blockbuster acquisitions dominated NBA summer headlines (outside of the Tim Donaghy ref scandal).
Here are the new-look squads in their predicted order of finish:
1) Boston Celtics
Last season’s numbers: 24-58 SU, 42-39-1 ATS, 40-42 O/U
The C’s went from the laughingstock of the NBA to a championship contender, all in one busy summer. With a little bit of elbow grease and a hell of a lot of negotiations, general manager Danny Ainge turned his roster upside down and brought in two All-Star fixtures (Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett).
There’s a chance Boston could go from worst to first in not only the Atlantic, but the Eastern Conference as well. Paul Pierce and his two new best friends will have to stay healthy and get some help from a rag-tag group of fill-ins.
Boston backers must hope for accelerated growth from second-year point guard Rajon Rondo. It’s a given the weak shooter will be the first to be left open whenever Pierce, Allen or Garnett are double-teamed. A 17-footer jumper will have to be part of Rondo’s game or the Celtics will struggle closing teams out.
The other concern for the Celtics is whether Kendrick Perkins can play alongside The Big Ticket. Garnett likes to shoot over power forwards, sometimes canning Js from as far as 20 feet. The perfect big man to play with Garnett is someone who stays in the paint and out of the former MVP’s way.
The bench is thin so head coach Doc Rivers will have to work some magic to get good minutes out of Eddie House, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine and the like.
The books have the Celtics’ season-win total set at 45 ½ and I think this is great value. Sure, there are some holes outside of the big three but it’s not like this hasn’t been done before. The Lakers’ 2000 team won a championship on the backs of Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant and Glen Rice little else. That team won 67 games in the tougher conference. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to pencil the Celtics in for 50-55 wins in the East.
2) Toronto Raptors
47-35 SU, 48-33-1 ATS, 34-47-1 O/U
The Dinosaurs took a giant step toward the top of the East with a record number of wins and the first division crown in the franchise’s 12-year history. Team president and general manager Bryan Colangelo couldn’t do wrong in his first full year since leaving the Phoenix Suns. Every player he brought in was golden in those awful purple uniforms.
Colangelo did a little more tinkering with the roster this past offseason. He brought in perimeter players Carlos Delfino and Jason Kapono. Perhaps the best decision was holding onto backup point guard Jose Calderon. The Spaniard was highly sought after but he will remain as T.J. Ford’s running mate.
Canada’s lone NBA club boasts a 10-deep rotation. Defending coach of the year Sam Mitchell will be challenged putting the right players on the floor at the right time. While the Raptors’ bench is certainly the class of the Atlantic, this team will only go as far as Chris Bosh will take it.
Bosh finally drew some recognition as an elite power forward while leading the Raps in points, rebounds and blocks. CB4 should be highly motivated after a poor performance in his first playoff appearance.
Oddsmakers pegged the campaign win total at 43 ½. Even if you’ve never seen this team play, you’ve got to take the over here. The Raptors have a quality superstar in Bosh and his looks get easier and easier as Colangelo continues to complement him with sweet-shooting hoopsters.
3) New Jersey Nets
41-41 SU, 41-39-2 ATS, 42-40 O/U
The Nets’ own version of the big three remain intact (Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson), but the man who could dictate whether this team goes deep into the playoffs is Nenad Krstic. Last year was a wash for the budding big man thanks to a bum ACL. Kidd, Carter and Jefferson are great, but without an inside scoring threat the Nets are offensively inept.
Krstic is ready to deliver on the potential he’s flashed over the last two injury-plagued seasons. Nets general manager Rod Thorn also snatched up Jamal Magloire, whose banging game should be a nice fit with Krstic’s shooting touch.
The bench was thought to be a soft area for this team going into last year but Bostian Nachbar, Antoine Wright and Marcus Williams all played vital roles. If rookie center Sean Williams earns minutes, New Jersey suddenly has the benefit of a nine-deep rotation.
This is no longer a fast-break squad even if you do see plenty of Carter and Kidd clips on Sportscenter. Kidd likes to push the ball but he’s in the paint too often fishing for rebounds rather than looking for outlet pass at half court. Look for this trend to pay off when playing totals.
There’s talk the Nets could reassert themselves as the Atlantic’s beast but there are still issues in the swamp. Kidd can no longer keep up with quicker guards and Carter is the only perimeter player who is accurate from three-point range. Oddsmakers have the win total set at 44 ½. I think under is the right angle here.
4) New York Knicks
33-49 SU, 39-43 ATS, 40-42 O/U
It wouldn’t be a proper Knicks offseason without head-scratching draft picks, over-hyped additions and upper-management turmoil. New York continues to sink or swim with Isiah Thomas as the general manager and head coach of the franchise. Besides battling a sexual harassment lawsuit, Zeke spent his summer rehashing his starting lineup (when isn’t he?).
He traded for elite power forward Zach Randolph while dumping Steve Francis’ bloated contract. Many so-called hoop experts immediately applauded the move. Personally, I don’t see the logic. Randolph will be paired with Eddie Curry giving the Knicks two black holes in the post. I’m pretty sure the last time Randolph passed out of a double team a Democrat was in the White House.
Quentin Richardson’s long-distance ability won’t be used because Curry and Randolph will be playing keep away from their teammates. This will cause a domino effect with Richardson and two guard Jamal Crawford chucking shots as soon as they’re blessed with a touch.
Energetic forward David Lee won’t see as much action with Randolph ahead of him on the depth chart and the Knicks second-chance points should dip as a result. If you can’t tell yet, I’m not high on this team. Vegas has its win total listed at 35 ½ – which makes the under a steal. There is no way this is a better team than last year.
5) Philadelphia 76ers
35-47 SU, 43-36-3 ATS, 39-41-2 O/U
Management decided to tear down Humpty Dumpty and parted ways with Allen Iverson and Chris Webber at midseason. The higher-ups figured the remaining roster wouldn’t win more than 10 percent of its contests and the franchise would be rewarded with a high pick in a deeply talented draft.
Problem was, the 76ers ended up being a better team without the Answer and C-Webb.
Philadelphia finished on a 17-9 run (16-8-2 ATS) thanks largely to the rapid improvement of Andre Iguodala and the stability of point guard Andre Miller. General manager Billy King added four young kids in the June draft but early indications suggest none will be a big help in Year 1.
This means Sixer fans will have to watch this season’s edition with an eye on the future. Each division competitor made significant moves to improve right away. The City of Brotherly Love essentially stood pat.
The books put out 34 ½ for the season win total on this club, but I don’t see the 76ers winning more than 30.