2011-12 College Basketball Betting Preview
By: Bruce Marshall
Donbest.com
It seems like only yesterday that the Final Four was being played in Houston, and the buzz was all about Butler remarkably making it back to the NCAA title game two years running.
Connecticut’s suffocating win in the finale took the air out of what had been a mostly-enthralling March Madness and college hoops campaign. But as always, the calendar has moved inexorably forward, and now that the leaves have changed colors and a chill is back in the air, it’s also time for a new college basketball season to begin.
What the college hoops map might look like in future seasons remains to be seen, as the football-driven conference switching threatens to realign college basketball as it is in the midst of doing on the gridiron. For this season, at least, things are looking much the same as a year ago. The Big East is still a 16-team behemoth with Syracuse and Pitt in tow before their move to the ACC, which might not happen until 2013-14. The ACC remains the same 12-team loop as it has been for the past six years.
Changes of note this season are Nebraska into the Big Ten, Colorado and Utah into the Pac-12, BYU into the Big West and Boise State into the Mountain West. The Big XII is now a 10-team configuration; we’ll see what happens to that league after this season is complete. The WAC is also do for a makeover following this campaign when Nevada, Fresno State and Boise all bolt.
For one more year, at least, college hoops will mostly have the same look as it has for the past several years. Enjoy the familiar landscape while you can.
As we move into November, we’ll be providing more comprehensive looks at most of the major conferences across the land. For now, a brief preview of the featured leagues, along with teams to watch, will be provided.
ACC...Team to beat: North Carolina
All five starters return for the Heels, led by soph F Harrison Barnes, whose emergence in the second half of the 2010-11 campaign suggests he is an early favorite for the Wooden Award this season. Along with returning frontliners 7-0 Tyler Zeller and 6-11 John Henson, Roy Williams also owns the most imposing frontline in the country.
Teams to watch: Duke lost a lot from last year’s Elite 8 team but the return of Gs Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins and the addition of frosh hotshot Austin Rivers (Doc’s son), plus the Plumlees on the frontline, means Coach K might have another title contender by the end of a season in which eh will surely break mentor Bob Knight’s all-time wins mark.
Miami-Florida lured coach Jim Larranaga from George Mason in hopes of getting the Canes over the hump. Four starters, including burly C Reggie Johnson, return, and "Coach L" never had this many athletes to run his pet "scamble defense" while at Mason. Tony Bennett’s third Virginia team received a big boost when F Mike Scott was granted a sixth year of eligibility. The Cavs, with five returning starters, could be ready for a breakthrough.
BIG EAST...Team to beat: UConn
Jim Calhoun surprised some by returning for another go in Storrs. The addition of touted frosh C Andre Drummond adds more star power to a lineup filled with athleticism, featuring 6-5 swingman Jeremy Lamb and PG Shabazz Napier, both sophomores. The Huskies have a better chance at repeating that either of Calhoun’s two previous national title winners.
Teams to watch: Syracuse coach Jim Boehiem loses only frontliner Rick Jackson from last year’s team that reached the second round of the NCAAs. The backcourt remains loaded with Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche, and F Kris Joseph is poised for an All-American senior campaign. Watch true frosh F Raheem Christmas, an X-factor who could help.
Mick Cronin returns his top four scorers from a Cincinnati team that reached the second round of the Big Dance before running into UConn. How much help bruising frontliner Yancy Gates receives in the paint from juco addition Cheikh Mbodi will be crucial for the Bearcats to make a deeper run next March. Pittsburgh returns the bulk of a lineup that has had all spring and summer to stew about a 71-70 loss to Butler in the Dance. Guard Ashton Gibbs might be the Big East’s top player.
BIG TEN...Team to beat: Ohio State
Rugged frontliner Jared Sullinger decided to stick around Columbus for his sophomore season, to the delight of coach Thad Matta. Along with 6-6 G William Buford, the Buckeyes might own the best 1-2, inside-outside punch in the land, and are motivated to get further than the Sweet 16 exit courtesy of Kentucky last March.
Teams to watch: Wisconsin has become a Big Dance regular and should return to the party for a 14th straight year in March. Coach Bo Ryan’s familiar "Swing" offense will rotate around star G Jordan Taylor and combo-guard Josh Gasser, and will as usual employ the typical, snarling Ryan defense.
Purdue gets magical F Robbie Hummel back from knee surgery for a final season, but it’s a shame he wasn’t healthy a year ago to team with the graduated JaJaun Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. Michigan might have been a top 20 preseason pick if G Darius Morris hadn’t decided to bolt early for the NBA; as it is, the Wolverines, who began to execute coach John Beilein’s schemes a year ago, will still be formidable with the return of soph star G Tim Hardaway.
Michigan State will be hoping that Valpo transfer G Brandon Wood can fill the backcourt gap after Kalin Lucas’ graduation and Korie Lucious’ dismissal.
BIG XII: Team to beat: Baylor
With much of the loop decimated by graduation and early defections to the NBA, the Bears enter the season with the most-experienced team in the league even without recent leading scorer LaceDarius Dunn. Baylor will have one of the most ferocious frontcourts in the country led by frontliners Quincy Acy and Perry Jones. Watch juco G Pierre Jackson, expected to fill the gap created by Dunn’s departure.
Teams to watch: Texas A&M has a new coach in ex-Murray State mentor Billy Kennedy and more returning star power than most others in the league thanks to G Dash Harris and F Khris Middleton. The Ags have made the Big Dance six years running but might get a hostile reception on the conference trail before their move to the SEC, tentatively slated for next year.
Travis Ford will hope he finally has sufficient depth for his Oklahoma State team to play at the sort of accelerated pace and tempo he desires. The Cowboys didn’t shoot all that well a year ago (only 43.6% from the floor) but ballyhooed true frosh swingman LeBryan Nash could be the league’s best newcomer.
CONFERENCE USA: Team to beat...Memphis
Josh Pastner returns all five starters from last year’s NCAA team that has been augmented to touted newcomers juco Stan Simpson and true frosh Adonis Thomas.
Teams to watch: UCF was the rage for a while last season and returns four starters led by Michael Jordan’s son Marcus and backcourt mate A.J. Rompza. Tulsa is hoping that PG Donte Medder can return to full strength and run the offense after last year’s ACL injury. More size than other CUSA contenders, thanks in part to active 6-10 C Steven Idlet.
MOUNTAIN WEST: Team to beat...New Mexico
Steve Alford returns four starters, including former UCLA transfer PF Drew Gordon and last yaar’s Mountain West freshman of the year, G Kendall Williams.
Teams to watch: UNLV returns the bulk of its lineup that reached the Big Dance last year for coach Lon Kruger, who departed for Oklahoma in the offseason. New coach Dave Rice is a former Runnin’ Rebel who spent the past few years designing the BYU offense that allowed Jimmer Fredette to thrive in Provo. Air Force could surprise and is the only other team not to be hit hard by graduation. The Falcons feature athletic 6-6 guard Michael Lyons.
PAC-12: Team to beat...California
Mike Montgomery remains a master coach and has four starters back to lead the Bears to the Big Dance after falling just short and reaching the NIT instead a year ago. Guard Jorge Gutierrez is a special floor leader, while soph F Allen Crabbe hinted at future stardom last season.
Teams to watch: Arizona must replace do-everything F Derrick Williams (to the NBA) and clutch G Momo Jones (transferred to Iona), but the Wildcats are deep and long with various interchangeable parts augmented by a top-rated recruiting class paced by Gs Josiah Turner & Nick Johnson.
UCLA could sport the sort of bruising lineup coach Ben Howland loves with six players standing 6-8 or taller on the roster. Rugged soph C Joshua Smith and tattooed junior PF Reeves Nelson will be tough to deal with in the paint, but the Bruins need to find some backcourt production to make a serious run into March.
SEC: Team to beat...Vanderbilt
Kevin Stallings returns all five starters from last year’s team that remains very hungry after another first-round NCAA exit. Plenty of firepower in guard John Jenkins and swingman Jeffery Taylor, and no big man in the country improved more than 6-11 Festus Ezeli last season.
Teams to watch: Another group of one-and-dones looks to be at John Calipari’s disposal at Kentucky this season. The new group consists of C Anthony Davis, swingman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and PG Michael Tegue. But remember how it was the emergence of graduated C Josh Harrellson to do the dirty work that propelled the Cats to the Final Four last year.
Alabama made a deep run in the NIT last season and could be ready to so the same in the Big Dance next march for coach Anthony Grant. Lots of frontline power with Fs JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell, and Grant hopes to have addressed outside shooting woes with the signings of several long-range marksmen in the recruiting class, led by five-star prospect Trevor Lacey.