ACC Bubble Watch
By Joe Nelson
With Super Bowl Sunday gone and past the next big Sunday to look forward to is Selection Sunday which is coming up sooner than you realize on March 13. The college basketball season still has a lot to sort out and remember that this year the NCAA tournament has expanded to 68 teams and there will be games on Tuesday and Wednesday this season, giving you even less time to fill out your yearly brackets. The expansion leaves room for a few more at-large bids this season and right now the door is wide open for several teams to seize those spots. Here is a look at the ACC teams playing for at-large bids just over halfway through the conference season.
The ACC is generally regarded as the best college basketball conference in the land and defending national champion Duke is leading the way this season. The ACC has tumbled in national credibility this season however, losing the ACC/Big Ten Challenge for the second straight year and featuring few credible NCAA tournament teams at this point in the season. The Sagarin ratings peg the ACC fourth strongest nationally behind the Big East, Big Ten, and Big XII and right now it is hard to say anyone other than Duke is a lock for the Dance.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels should be a safe assumption to return to the NCAA tournament after stunningly missing out last season. North Carolina lost four non-conference games but all four losses came against quality teams and a win over Kentucky should pay dividends down the road. Off to a 7-1 ACC start has North Carolina building some separation as the #2 team in the conference heading into the first meeting with Duke this week. North Carolina should be favored in at least five of the final right conference games and playing .500 down the stretch should lead to an at-large bid.
Florida State: The Seminoles have a huge win over Duke in its pocket and that could be enough even with very little weight in the non-conference resume. A loss to Auburn stands out but other losses have come against quality competition leaving Florida State some margin for error down the stretch. Three of the next four games will be on the road for Florida State so this may be a critical stretch for a team that has lost two of its last three games and has just one road win among its six ACC victories. The computer numbers are not going to be favorable if Florida State winds up in a showdown with some of the other ACC teams with similar records so Florida State is a team that is two bad losses away from being on the outside looking in.
Boston College: The Eagles built up a strong non-conference record with several solid but not overly impressive victories. The losses were questionable however, losing to two Ivy League teams, Yale and Harvard, and also to Rhode Island. BC is clinging to a 5-4 ACC record and they have lost badly in the games against teams ahead of them in the ACC standings. Winning narrowly at home against Virginia Tech last weekend was huge but the next three games will be very difficult and the Hokies will have a chance to even the score late in the year. BC must win its remaining home games and probably needs to steal a road win to feel good about at-large chances as a winning conference record is likely going to be required. Boston College will win the computer battles with some of the other at-large teams but the bad losses may be worse and if margin of defeat is considered the picture is less promising for the Eagles as several quality teams have blown out the defense deficient squad from Chestnut Hill.
Virginia Tech: Most preseason rankings pegged the Hokies as the number two team in the ACC but it again looks like a lackluster season for Virginia Tech that will end in sweating on Selection Sunday. As usual the Hokies will get penalized for a very weak non-conference schedule and wins over Penn State and Oklahoma State will not offset the weak overall profile and mediocre conference results. Virginia Tech will need a strong finish to the conference season and recent road wins at Maryland and at NC State will help the cause. The remaining road games are winnable for the Hokies but the home games will present challenges hosting Georgia Tech and Boston College, teams that have already defeated Virginia Tech as well as hosting Maryland and Duke. Beating Duke might be required unless the Hokies can get on a run and finish with double-digit wins in conference play as there are zero wins over teams that are certain tournament teams at this point.
Maryland: The Terrapins are another team that sorely lacks a signature win. The strength of schedule and computer measures are positives for Maryland but all the big non-conference games ended in defeat and close losses won’t earn enough points with the selection committee. Maryland already has lost to Duke twice so that opportunity is gone and the closing schedule features four tricky road games against teams fighting for the upper middle of the league standings. Maryland is another team that probably needs to reach the 10-6 threshold in league play and they will need a big road win at Boston College, at Virginia Tech, or at North Carolina to get there. Maryland is a team that might make the tournament field today but is in serious danger of falling off the cliff in the next two weeks.
Clemson: The Tigers have looked like they belong in the tournament based on their merits in the ACC but they have the most work to due to recover from a poor non-conference performance through a very weak non-conference schedule. A singular loss to Old Dominion, Michigan, or South Carolina may not be that damaging but Clemson lost to all three and there were no quality wins early in the year to offset those blights. Clemson has gone 4-0 in ACC play at home and four of the final seven games will be at home and with wins in three of the last four Clemson has a little bit of momentum. Finishing 8-0 at home would mean a few big wins and if Clemson could steal another road win they might enter the conversation. At 5-4 Clemson might need to finish 6-1 to be certain of making the tournament but anything less than 5-2 probably knocks the Tigers out.
Miami, Virginia, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Wake Forest appear to be out of the picture barring a near perfect finish to the season and a few conference tournament wins. All have at least nine losses and no better than 3-6 marks in conference play. The ACC will probably end up as a five-bid league so assuming North Carolina is a lock we should have the five teams in the middle fighting for three spots and maybe a fourth spot if the bubble expands due to the lack of quality elsewhere or no big upsets stealing bids in conference tournaments.