ACC - Buy or Sell
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
As we enter the heart of the conference season in college basketball, there will be a great deal of shuffling in the conference standings and in the national rankings. Well-regarded teams will eventually take some losses as the grind of the conference schedule takes its toll and other teams will rise to prominence with hot starts. It is important to take a look at the whole picture in evaluating teams as some programs will face more difficulty early in the season and others will have a back-loaded schedule that could spell a fall late in the year.
Here are 'Buy' and 'Sell' teams for the ACC, a conference with two clear frontrunners and a muddled middle-of-the-pack. 'Buy' teams are squads that may be undervalued or have recently taken a fall with a few losses but should emerge as quality teams by season's end. Value may be on these squads in the coming weeks as the strength of schedule may have taken an early toll. 'Sell' squads are teams that have shot up the standings and may be moving up in the national consciousness, but these are teams with suspect resumes and likely are due for a fall in the coming weeks.
Buy: Miami (FL) Hurricanes - Opening the ACC season at 0-2 is not the start that former George Mason Coach Jim Larranaga envisioned in Coral Gables, but both games came on the road, losing by one at Virginia and by 17 at North Carolina. Miami is not in the same class as the Tar Heels, but this is a team that can move itself onto the NCAA tournament bubble with a solid conference season as they will benefit from having played a very difficult non-conference slate. Miami already has six losses, but none of the losses will hurt the team's resume. They lost away from home in five of the six losses with non-conference misses against Mississippi, Purdue, and West Virginia, and the lone home loss coming against Memphis. Non-conference wins over Rutgers and Charlotte are the best wins on the resume, as this is a team capable of picking up some quality wins in conference play. The schedule in the coming weeks is favorable with home games in three of the next five and two winnable road games, so this is a team that could get some momentum heading into big February games with Duke and the rematch with North Carolina. Miami has excellent depth with 11 players that have averaged ten or more minutes and it has taken some time for Larranaga's new system to catch on for a team that had a very tough off-season with injuries and suspensions. DeQuan Jones is just getting back into the rotation after his suspension and Reggie Johnson is also just getting his legs back after recovering from surgery. Those are two key players that will eventually be big contributors on this team. It may take a little more time for this team to develop but the Hurricanes should be in several favorable underdog and slight favorite situations in the coming weeks and in an ACC field that looks wide open after the two perennial powers, Miami is a team that can be heard from. On the ATS front, Miami has covered in three of the last five games with one of the losses coming by just a half point and this can continue to be a profitable team in the coming weeks.
Buy: Duke Blue Devils - As one of the most popular and polarizing programs in the nation, Duke is a team that can quickly become overvalued, but this year's Devils squad may be a bit under the radar. Duke lost over the weekend at Temple and also lost at Ohio State earlier this season. Those are both high quality teams and both games came on the road and heading into the ACC season. This is a team that can make a run and quickly climb back to a top-5 ranking. Duke can't be criticized for its schedule as the Blue Devils have taken on one of the toughest slates in the nation. They have wins away from home against Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, Kansas, and Washington and that is exactly the type of tournament level gauntlet that this team needed. While there are plenty of experienced veterans on this team, junior guards Seth Curry and freshman Austin Rivers are key players on this team that don't have much experience and they needed to get pushed early in the year. With the Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly, Duke has the size and rebounding that most teams dream of and this is a versatile squad has been able to win track meets as well as defensive grinds. The distance between Duke and North Carolina and the rest of the ACC looks fairly substantial this season and while Duke will get every team's best shot, they should be able to deliver strong results in conference play, even against steep favorite spreads. Duke is currently just 6-9 ATS on the season including 0-3 in road games, but with a team that is averaging over 82 points per game, the Blue Devils are capable of putting up big numbers to get past large spreads. This is a very good 3-point shooting team and a team that gets a lot of points in the paint as well so a lot of games could be put out of reach early. The defensive numbers look suspect for this squad, but considering the pace put forth by the offense and the challenging schedule those are figures that will only improve in the coming weeks.
Sell: Virginia Cavaliers - There are only a handful of one-loss teams left in the nation and by default Virginia is rising in the national rankings with a 14-1 record and a 1-0 start in ACC play. Former Washington State Coach Tony Bennett was a hot commodity for several years before taking the leap to Virginia two years ago but the results have been fairly disappointing, going 31-31 in his first two seasons. He has three starters back from last year's team, but that squad went just 7-9 in ACC play and realistically a big jump in the standings should not be expected even with the glowing non-conference record. Non-conference wins over Michigan and LSU bring a little credibility to the non-conference slate but overall the Virginia schedule ranks near the 300's in the nation. The lone loss was somewhat embarrassing, falling to TCU in the Paradise Jam and the ACC opener featured just a one-point win at home over Miami. The ACC does not look overly strong this season and Virginia does only have to play Duke once so an upper-half finish is a strong possibility, but this is a team that will likely struggle in the favorite role against average teams and the late season schedule is difficult with North Carolina twice in February as well as several other challenging road games. This is a team that can probably finish at best 10-6 in the ACC and snag a NCAA tournament berth, but this is not a team that deserves to be in the top-20 in the national rankings. Virginia currently owns a 7-3 ATS mark, but they failed against the number in the first ACC test and could struggle as favorites. However, the Cavaliers may be worth a look as underdogs as this is a disciplined and well-coached team.
Sell: Clemson Tigers - The Tigers could very well start 2-0 in ACC play as they stunned Florida State in the opener and visit a down Boston College team next on the schedule. Against Florida State, Clemson had a 33-13 free throw advantage and also shot 49 percent from the floor while the Seminoles had an off-night, shooting just 35 percent. It was a nice win for a team that struggled in the non-conference season, but it is not likely to be the norm in the conference slate. Clemson has six losses despite featuring a schedule that ranks as the second-easiest of any ACC team to this point and to date the Tigers have played zero top 50 teams. Only a loss to Arizona might look respectable by season's end as the Tigers lost to College of Charleston, Coastal Carolina, South Carolina, UTEP, and Hawaii. The best win of the non-conference slate came at Iowa, but that was before the Hawkeyes were playing well. Clemson does catch some breaks in the ACC slate, but this team may not be good enough to take advantage. Clemson only plays Duke and North Carolina once each, as this looks like a squad that will have a hard time matching last year's 9-7 ACC finish. Only two starters are back from last year's 22-12 team that lost its first NCAA tournament game and the offense has really struggled, scoring less than 65 points per game. Veterans Andre Young, Tanner Smith, and Devin Booker lead the way, but this is a team that has struggled with consistent rebounding and despite lacking size, this is a team that is shooting just 33 percent from 3-point range. Clemson has great defensive numbers at this point in the season, allowing less than 58 points per game. However, that will not hold up as the schedule gets tougher and at 3-7 ATS on the year Clemson has thrown up plenty of red flags that this is not the same team as a year ago.