ACC Title Picture
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The ACC basketball standings look as wide open as they have been since the 2006-07 season. Currently two teams sit on top of the ACC tied with three losses while four others sit with four losses, but many of those teams will be playing each other down the stretch. Here is a look at the chances of taking the title for the remaining contenders in the nation’s premier conference.
Seven of the past 15 national champions have come out of the current group of ACC teams as the conference remains the standard bearer in college basketball. Even with the expansion to an 18-game conference season the past three years, the regular season champion in the ACC has had no more than three losses in each of the past eight seasons. With Duke’s win over North Carolina on Wednesday, the 2015-16 ACC regular season champion will have at least three losses at a minimum and the league’s chances to score a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament look limited barring a great run the rest of the way from one of these teams.
North Carolina (10-3): The Tar Heels have been considered a national title contender all season and with a 21-5 record and a still ACC-leading 10-3 conference record that notion hasn’t changed. The Tar Heels certainly appear to be slipping out of contention for one of the #1 seeds with losses in three of the past five games. While the talent on the roster for the Tar Heels is nationally elite, the record could continue to slide with a very tough remaining schedule. North Carolina has a back-loaded ACC schedule as they have played just three games against the five other ACC teams with four or fewer conference losses and they are actually 0-3 in those games. They take on current conference co-leader Miami this weekend and will still face difficult road games vs. Virginia and Duke down the stretch.
Miami, FL (10-3): Few expected Miami to be an ACC championship contender this season, but the Hurricanes will take the outright lead in the conference if they can beat North Carolina this weekend. Miami has wins over Notre Dame and Duke this season, but both of those big victories came at home. Miami is just 3-3 in ACC play on the road with a two-point win over Florida State being the strongest of those wins. In addition to playing in Chapel Hill, Miami also has a rematch in South Bend with the Irish while hosting two other top squads Virginia and Louisville in the remaining schedule as by season’s end the current co-leader in the conference might wind up falling back towards the middle of the pack.
Virginia (10-4): The Cavaliers have won the ACC regular season title each of the past two seasons with a 16-2 record, a mark that no team in the conference will reach this season. That excellence has been overshadowed by marginal results in the NCAA Tournament as it might be preferable for this year’s team to enter the Big Dance slightly less heralded. Virginia has a daunting remaining schedule to navigate if they hope to win a third straight regular season conference title facing road games with Miami and Clemson while hosting North Carolina and Louisville. Virginia has higher-end conference wins than most of the other contenders with victories over six of the nine teams that currently have a winning record in the ACC, but the schedule calls for four more games in that category.
Notre Dame (9-4): Few are talking about the possibility of Notre Dame taking the ACC title, but the shot for the Irish is very legitimate. Notre Dame has five games to go and each of the next three games will be on the road, but they only have one remaining game against a team that currently has a winning ACC record. The most difficult remaining game will be against Miami at home in early March in a rematch for the Irish after losing by nine at Miami in early February. It won’t be a shock if the Irish drops one of the road games vs. Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, or Florida State, but considering the slates remaining for the rest of the ACC contenders, Notre Dame has to like its chances to move up.
Louisville (9-4): With the Cardinals banned from the postseason, the regular season title is all Louisville has left to play for. Some teams in that tough situation have mailed in the rest of the campaign, but this team doesn’t appear ready to quit even though there have been losses in two of the last three games. The misses came on the road in extremely close games with Duke and Notre Dame and this week the Cardinals bounced back with a rout over Syracuse to take the Orange off this list. Louisville’s remaining schedule is difficult, but they will at the very least have a chance to play spoiler with some of the other top contenders, facing Duke, Miami, and Virginia among the final five games.
Duke (9-4): With losses in four of five games in January, last season’s national championship winner was out of the Top 25 and potentially looking at a spot on the NCAA Tournament bubble. With five straight wins that is no longer the case and the Blue Devils are still in the mix for the ACC title. The last three wins have come by the slimmest of margins for a very thin roster but wins over Louisville, Virginia, and North Carolina in succession is about as impressive as it gets for a three-game run. The Blue Devils won’t get time to enjoy the big win in Chapel Hill as they face a rematch at Louisville this weekend and will still have to host the Tar Heels in the season finale.
Clemson (9-5): The Tigers are certainly a long shot with five defeats and six teams to pass in the ACC race, but given all the games the top teams will play against each other, a split co-championship with multiple 13-5 ACC teams is a real possibility this season. Clemson has been very tough at home in ACC play with wins over Louisville, Duke, and Miami and the toughest remaining game will be at home hosting Virginia on the first day of March. Road games at NC State and at Georgia Tech can be challenging, but the Tigers can’t be ruled out of the picture just yet. With a few ugly non-conference losses on the resume, this is a team that will need a strong finish to make the NCAA Tournament and the schedule does line up for that possibility.