Against the Spread impact players
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
Last week, I wrote about the pointspread impact of the numerous key injuries around the NBA. This week, I’m going to shift my focus to specific players, in an effort to identify and isolate the influence of individuals on their respective teams’ ATS results.
Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia
Hawes was considered a first round bust in Sacramento, failing to develop into an impact player after the Kings took him with the 10th overall pick back in 2007. Last year, in a backup role with the Sixers, Hawes was certainly not an impact player on either end of the court. But as a starter this year, the Sixers rode his solid defense and rebounding a lot early in the season: 13-1 ATS with him in the lineup. But Hawes has been battling a lingering Achilles injury, and the Sixers just aren’t the same team without him: 6-12 ATS in the 18 games that he’s missed. At 13-1 against the spread with him and 6-12 without him, Hawes is exactly the type of under-the-radar pointspread influencer that I’m looking to spotlight!
Marcus Thornton, Sacramento
The Kings are an NBA afterthought –rarely on TV, never in the playoffs and without many marketable stars on their roster. Their owners, the Maloof Brothers, have severe financial restraints these days, and the franchise is in real danger of leaving town at the end of the year. That certainly doesn’t mean that there is no value supporting the Kings, particularly when Marcus Thornton is on the floor. The team’s leading scorer (not Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins or Jimmer Fredette) missed seven games in January. Sacramento lost six of them. Since his return to the lineup back on February 2nd against Portland, the Kings are 4-6 SU, but 7-3 ATS.
Jason Kidd, Dallas
We don’t think of Kidd as an impact player at this late stage of his career. But one thing Kidd has been is extremely durable, playing at least 80 games every year since the 2005-06 campaign. When he missed six games in late January and early February, the Mavs struggled mightily without him. Roddy Beaubois was not able to distribute the basketball effectively as the starting point guard in his absence; neither was Delonte West. Dallas notched only two pointspread covers in its six games without Kidd – one against Phoenix without Steve Nash in the lineup; the other against Denver without two thirds of its starting frontcourt available. As soon as Kidd returned to the lineup, Dallas reeled off five straight victories, going 4-1 ATS in those ballgames.
DJ Augustin, Charlotte
To say that the Bobcats tanked when point guard DJ Augustin got hurt is something of an understatement. Augustin got hurt in the first quarter of a late January game against the Nets. The Bobcats proceeded to lose that game by ten (as five-point underdogs). Then, they proceeded to go on a 0-11 SU run with eight of those losses coming by double-digit margins in non-competitive fashion. Augustin returned to the starting lineup last Friday against Toronto and voila – Charlotte won SU on the road for only the second time all year, an easy ATS cash as seven-point underdogs for their supporters.
Steve Nash, Phoenix
The Suns take their cues from their Hall-of-Fame point guard, but it hasn’t been an easy go of it for the 38-year-old Nash. Nash has missed three games this year. Those three games? A ten-point home loss to New Jersey, a 23-point home loss to Dallas and a 17-point road loss at Denver: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS. Nash’s teammates haven’t brought the same level of energy or intensity on either end of the court without their fearless leader in the lineup; a noticeable mental letdown.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland
Varejao was the Cavs best player prior to his injury, a broken wrist that he suffered against the Bucks last weekend. In my mind, he was a legitimate All-Star, averaging a double-double and bringing tremendous energy to the floor every time he was in the game. The Cavs have not fared well without him, suffering a pair of non-competitive losses and a non-cover in a one point win against the Kings on Sunday. Varejao’s replacement in the starting lineup, center Semih Erden, had barely played 100 minutes all year before Varejao got hurt and Erden’s backup, Ryan Hollins, is now sitting with a knee injury, leaving the Cavs rather depleted in the frontcourt these days.
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto
Bargnani has never quite lived up to the hype he had when he entered the league as the #1 overall draft pick back in 2006, but he was Toronto’s best player – by far – for the first month of the Dwane Casey era. But a calf injury in January kept him out of the lineup for six games. Toronto lost all six of those games. He returned for a short period, but re-aggravated the same injury, missing the Raptors last 13 games. They’ve gone 3-10 without him, and two of those wins came against Washington and New Jersey – bottom feeders. Add it up and we’re talking about a Raptors team that is 6-7 SU with Bargnani; 3-16 without him!
Danilo Gallinari, Denver
Earlier in the season, I made the mistake of calling the Denver Nuggets ‘virtually injury proof’ because of their tremendous depth. But no team in the league could withstand the injury barrage suffered by George Karl’s team over the last month. Only Al Harrington and Andre Miller have played every game for Denver this year. At one point last week, they were missing four of their five starters, as well as a couple of key cogs off the bench. Gallinari’s injury seems to be the most impactful of the bunch. The Nuggets are just 2-5 SU without him, one of those wins coming at home against a Suns team in a three-game-in-three night’s stretch without Steve Nash or Grant Hill in the lineup
George Hill, Indiana
Hill is a backup at either guard position, not a starter. He’ll never have an impact on a pointspread, whether he’s healthy or not. But he played major minutes behind Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in San Antonio in 2010 and 2011, and was a major offseason acquisition for Indiana – their first guard off the bench behind Darren Collison and Paul George, neither of whom is truly ‘proven’. Most bettors haven’t noticed the enormous ATS dichotomy for the Pacers with and without Hill. The numbers don’t lie. Indiana was a modest moneymaker with Hill in the lineup, 11-8 ATS. Without him, they’ve been money burners, a woeful 3-9 ATS.
Brandon Bass, Boston
The Celtics are not blessed with particularly strong frontcourt depth this year. When Chris Wilcox and Greg Stiemsma are getting regular playing time, it’s a testament to the Celtics lack of quality depth in the paint. That’s what makes the injury to backup forward Brandon Bass impactful. Bass has been Boston’s first big man off the bench for most of the year, averaging 11.6 points and 6.1 boards in 29 minutes per game – solid backup numbers. But Bass hurt his knee last week, and the Celtics simply don’t have a suitable replacement for his minutes. The Celtics have lost three out of four, both SU and ATS, without Bass in the lineup.
Steve Blake, LA Lakers
Blake is certainly no superstar, a mediocre point guard who’s spent most of his career coming off the bench. His career numbers won’t wow anyone: seven points and four assists per game since coming into the league back in 2003 with the Wizards. But the Lakers have no one to replace Blake when he’s out. Starter Derek Fisher is approaching his 38th birthday, on pace for career lows in minutes and points. In other words, Fisher needs lots of help on both ends of the court. A healthy Blake is capable of handling that role. But when he missed 13 games with a rib injury, the Lakers fell apart: 0-6 ATS through the first six games that he missed, 4-9 ATS total; losing seven of those 13 games in outright fashion.