Back-to-back NBA trends for this weekend
By: Tim Walsh
The handicapping of back-to-back games in the NBA can sometimes be quite stressful on bettors. Take just this week for instance, as the reigning Eastern Conference champion Celtics dominated the new-look Heat at home, then went on the road the next day only to lose outright to Cleveland as 4.5-point favorites. The Celtics took the majority of the betting action in what was the most-bet NBA game on the board Wednesday night. So do all teams struggle when it comes to playing two games in two days? Let’s take a look at a few teams who will be on the court Friday and Saturday night.
The KNICKS make the short trip to Boston Friday to take on the Celtics then head home Saturday for a date with the Trail Blazers. Now, the Knicks certainly weren’t good in any situation last year, going 29-53 straight up and 37-43-2 against the spread. When playing the second half of a back-to-back, they were even worse, going 4-14 SU and 8-10 ATS. The Knicks were especially bad when playing on two consecutive nights during the first two weeks of the season last year, going 0-4 SU and ATS as they lost both the front and back end of two back-to-backs. New York was just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS when returning home after playing a road game the night before. Going back to 2008-2009, the Knicks were just 1-3 ATS in that situation, indicating a play on Portland Saturday night.
Now let’s look at how a perennial playoff contender performs in back-to-backs.
The NUGGETS topped the Northwest Division for the second consecutive season last year. They’ll be in action Friday in New Orleans and on Saturday in Houston. Luckily for them, they don’t have to play every game on no rest. The Nuggets went 10-12 SU in the second half of back-to-backs last year but were a dismal 6-14-2 ATS (30%). When the back-to-back consisted of two straight road games, Denver was awful in the second game, going 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS. Dating back to 2008-2009, the Nuggets covered 60% of their games. When playing the second half of a back-to-back, that number dropped to 52%. When the back-to-back consisted of two road games, they covered the second game just 33% of the time (2-4 in six games). All these trends support picking Houston on Saturday.
However, not all teams slump when playing on consecutive nights.
Take the BOBCATS for example, who will host Indiana Friday before traveling to Milwaukee Saturday. Charlotte was an impressive 14-8-1 ATS (64%) last season when playing on no rest and covered six of 11 road games after playing at home the night before. Last year was no fluke as the Bobcats were also profitable in ’08-’09 in the second game of back-to-backs, going 13-8 ATS. Look for Charlotte to at least cover against the Bucks on Saturday.
The lesson here is that not all teams play true to form when playing consecutive nights. Keep that in mind as 13 teams will be in action both Friday and Saturday this weekend.