ASA: Overrated/Underrated
February 12, 2008
Overrated – Underrated on the Collegiate Hardwood
History and recent past results often lead to future preconceptions. A good year or a run of good seasons or a bad year or run of bad seasons give certain teams a reputation of being either a great team or an awful team. Things change, though, but these reputations don’t. This frequently results in certain teams being overrated based on past success and other being underrated based on past failures. Here are a few of each of those cases:
Overrated
Indiana – The Hoosiers are currently second in the Big Ten and 13th in the AP Poll but there may not be team in the top 15 less tested than this one. Indiana’s strength of schedule is 10th in the 11-team Big Ten Conference. It has yet to beat a team currently in the top 25 and picked up just its first victory over a team with an RPI higher than 49 with Sunday’s win over Ohio State.
The Hoosiers’ three losses – at Xavier, at Wisconsin and at home versus Connecticut – have come against their three toughest foes. They just haven’t proven they can beat a good team. Indiana’s nine conference wins have come against teams with a combined conference record of 29-70. The Hoosiers will get a true test over the next week when they take on Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State over the course of seven days.
Underrated
Purdue – Not much was expected of these Boilermakers as their youth and inexperience made them a prime candidate to break out next year. Nobody expected that breakout to come this season. Purdue, 10-1 in Big Ten action and 19-5 overall, recently made its first appearance in the top 25 and have done so on the strength of a nine-game winning streak.
The Boilers have covered nine of their last 10 outings behind a group of players largely unheralded coming out of high school. Their top four scorers, including three freshmen, are of sophomore or younger status. Most experts would expect a young team like Purdue to struggle on the road but that has not been the case. The Boilers are 6-1 ATS on the road this year and are fresh off an upset of Wisconsin in Madison, which is a nearly impossible venue to win in for visiting teams.
Overrated
Southern Illinois – The Salukis are one of those teams whose reputation exceeds its production this year. They have dominated the Missouri Valley Conference over the past few seasons, earning a No. 4 seed in last year’s NCAA Tourney. This is not the same Southern Illinois team, though. The Salukis are just 12-12 SU on the season despite being favored in 19 of their 24 games. The odds-makers have expected the Salukis of old but those Salukis have not showed up this year.
Road struggles have been the primary factor behind Southern Illinois’ poor record this season. The Salukis are just 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS away from home this year, averaging just 54 points per game in those nine losses. Southern Illinois has made it to six consecutive NCAA Tournaments but it’s going to take a miracle to make it seven straight.
Underrated
Bradley – Three weeks ago, the Braves were sitting at 1-5 in MVC action and 8-10 overall. Fast forward to the present day and Butler is 7-6 in conference action and 14-11 overall following a 6-1 SU stretch highlighted by six straight covers. The Braves started the season covering just four of their first 14 games. They are currently riding a 7-2 ATS run and nobody has noticed.
Drake has been the talk of the MVC all season long but nobody seems to remember the battle the Bulldogs got when they visited Bradley, In its toughest conference game to date, Drake needed a last-second layup to pull off the win. Since that game, the Braves have gone 6-1 with an average margin of victory of 9.2 points per game. Bradley is playing its best ball of the season right now and could be a legitimate threat to Drake come conference tourney time.
Overrated
Pittsburgh – The Panthers stormed out to a 10-0 start behind an easy non-conference slate and moved to 11-0 following an upset of Duke at Madison Square Garden. Injuries then struck with starting guards Levance Fields and Mike Cook missing a substantial amount of time. The season has unraveled for Pittsburgh since then with the Panthers going just 7-5 SU and 6-5 ATS. The odds-makers haven’t seemed to take notice, though.
The absence of Fields and Cook has been amplified by Pitt’s road struggles. The Panthers are just 2-4 SU in their last six road games with their only wins coming against St. John’s and South Florida, which are a combined 5-17 in Big East play. Their struggles were even more evident in a 13-point home loss to 10-15 Rutgers as 18-point favorites. Yet Pittsburgh remains in the top 25.
Underrated
Maryland – The ACC has been a two-horse race pretty much all season with Duke and North Carolina predictably taking up much of the conference headlines. Maryland has emerged recently, though, to steal some of those headlines. The Terrapins sit just a game behind the Tar Heels with a 6-3 conference record following a four-game winning streak.
Following a Dec. 22 home loss to American University, nobody expected Maryland to be much of a threat in the ACC. The Terrapins have used that unlikely loss as motivation, though, and have gone 10-2 SU and 8-2 ATS since, including an 82-80 upset of UNC. Sophomore guard Greivis Vasquez and senior forward James Gist have led the charge, combining for 40 points, 14.3 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game over Maryland’s four-game winning streak.
Indiana's A.J. Ratliff will not finish season with Hoosiers
February 12, 2008
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. (AP) -Indiana swingman A.J. Ratliff will not finish his senior season with the Hoosiers.
Ratliff missed the Hoosiers' last two games, but coach Kelvin Sampson said Tuesday those absences were not a disciplinary move. The parting comes after a turbulent season in which Ratliff was declared academically ineligible for the first semester, then slowed by a sprained ankle in December.
``Both of us agreed that it was in his best interests to focus on himself and to work through his personal issues,'' Sampson said in a brief statement released by the athletic department. ``We wish him the best.''
This season, Ratliff averaged 11.3 minutes in nine games, 1.7 points and 1.3 rebounds for the Hoosiers (20-3). He fell behind newcomers Eric Gordon, Jamarcus Ellis and Jordan Crawford in the Hoosiers' rotation and struggled to fit in.
Ratliff was the state's high school Mr. Basketball in 2004, but was slowed by injuries during his first three seasons.
(9) Butler (21-2, 11-9-2 ATS) at Wisconsin-Milwaukee (12-10, 9-9-1 ATS)
Butler hits the road for the third time in a week when it battles Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a Horizon League contest.
The Bulldogs are riding a five-game winning streak, including consecutive road wins at Valparaiso last Tuesday (71-68 as a three-point favorite) and at Wisconsin-Green Bay on Saturday (62-57 as a six-point chalk). Although Butler sits atop the Horizon standings at 10-2, it is just 2-8-2 ATS in conference, including 0-5-2 ATS on the road.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has followed up a 9-1 run with two straight losses, both on the road at Horizon League foes Detroit (72-61) and Wright State (53-51). In its most recent contest at Wright State 10 days ago, the Panthers shot just 34.5 percent from the field, but still managed to cover easily as a seven-point road underdog.
Butler has won three straight in this rivalry, cashing in the last two. That includes a 72-56 rout as a 15-point home chalk back on Jan. 12. However, the Bulldogs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 7-5 in the Horizon League (6-5-1 ATS) and has alternated spread-covers in its last seven contests.
The Panthers are 7-4 at home, but only 3-5 ATS in lined games. Dating to last year, they’ve failed to cover in eight of their last 11 at home. On the flip side, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS as an underdog of 12 points or fewer this season.
Going back to last season, Butler is 2-10-2 ATS in the Horizon League.
The under is 5-2 in Butler’s last six overall, 12-3 in its last 15 on the highway and 6-1 in the last seven series meetings overall (3-0 in the last three) and 4-1 in the last five clashes at Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(10) Michigan State (20-3, 8-9-2 ATS) at (19) Purdue (19-5, 12-9 ATS)
One of the best games of the week takes place tonight inside Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind., where the red-hot Boilermakers host Michigan State.
Purdue has won nine in a row, with its most recent victory being the most impressive: Saturday’s 72-67 upset at Wisconsin as a 10-point underdog. The Boilermakers, who on a 9-1 ATS spree, became just the second visitor to ever win at Wisconsin’s Kohl Center as they took over first place in the Big Ten at 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS), with the only loss coming last month at Michigan State.
The Spartans bounced back from a stunning loss at Penn State with a tougher-than-it-looks 70-55 victory over Northwestern, failing to cash as an 18½-point home chalk. Michigan State is 8-2 in league play, but just 3-7 ATS (2-2 ATS on the road).
Since starting the season 5-1-1 ATS in lined action, Michigan State is 3-8 against the number.
These teams played a thriller in East Lansing, Mich., on Jan. 8, with the Spartans escaping with a 78-75 victory. Purdue, which got outshot 61 percent to 41.3 percent and outrebounded 33-22 in the defeat, easily cashed as a 13-point road underdog. The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, but the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven series battles.
Despite Purdue’s spread-cover at Michigan State last month, the favorite is on an 8-3 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Spartans are mired in ATS funks of 4-10-2 on Tuesdays, 3-9 against the Big Ten and 2-5 following a non-cover.
In addition to its current 9-1 ATS roll, Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, 20-6 in its last 26 against the Big Ten and 5-0 ATS on Tuesdays.
These schools topped the total in their meeting last month, ending a 6-0 “under” streak in this series. The under is still 5-1 in the last six battles at Purdue, 3-0 in Purdue’s last three overall, 9-2 in Michigan State’s last 11 on Tuesday and 11-5 in Purdue’s last 16 on Tuesday. However, the over is 3-0 in Michigan State’s last three on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE and UNDER
Kentucky (12-9, 9-8-1 ATS) at (24) Vanderbilt (20-4, 11-12 ATS)
The streaking Wildcats go for their sixth consecutive SEC win and spread-cover, and try to sweep the regular-season series from Vanderbilt, when these two league rivals clash at Memorial Gym in Nashville.
Kentucky opened SEC play with a 79-73 overtime win over Vanderbilt as a one-point home chalk on Jan. 12, then proceeded to lose their next two at Mississippi State (69-64) and at Florida (81-70 in overtime). Since then, however, the Wildcats are on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear, including Saturday’s 62-52 victory over Alabama as a 6 ½-point home favorite.
Kentucky is only outscoring its opponents 68-62 during the five-game winning streak, but it is outshooting them 53 percent to 38.8 percent (44 percent to 29 percent from three-point land).
Last month’s loss at Kentucky sparked a 1-4 slump for the Commodores, but they’ve since rallied to win three in a row, including Saturday’s 66-65 victory at South Carolina as a two-point road underdog. Vandy has cashed in back-to-back outings after going 1-6 ATS through its first seven SEC contests.
The Wildcats snapped a four-game losing skid to Vanderbilt with the six-point overtime win at home on Jan. 12. Kentucky is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 battles, including 4-1 at Vandy. Meanwhile, the underdog had been on a 4-0 ATS roll in this rivalry before the Wildcats cashed as a one-point chalk last month.
Vanderbilt is 27-1 in its last 28 games inside Memorial Gym, including a perfect 14-0 this year, but just 5-8 ATS in lined contests. That includes 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS when hosting SEC foes. However, the Commodores are 5-0 ATS as a short favorite this season (seven points or less).
Kentucky started the year 0-5 away from Rupp Arena (1-4 ATS) before winning and covering in its last two at Georgia (63-58) and Auburn (66-63).
The under is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings, including 3-0 in the last three overall. Also, the under is on current runs of 5-0 for Vandy and 4-1 for Kentucky. Conversely, the Commodores have topped the total in 36 of their last 53 home games, going 9-4 “over” at Memorial Gym this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and UNDER
NBA
Detroit (37-13, 29-20-1 ATS) at Atlanta (22-26, 23-24-1 ATS)
The Pistons take an eight-game winning streak down south to Atlanta looking to sweep the season series from the Hawks.
Detroit capped a perfect five-game homestand with Sunday’s 113-87 rout of the Bobcats, cashing easily as a 12-point home chalk. Although the Pistons have won eight in a row, they’re just 2-4 ATS in their last six and 6-11 against the number since a remarkable 18-0-1 ATS streak that stretched from late November to early January.
Atlanta has followed up a three-game winning streak (2-0-1 ATS) with consecutive losses, falling to the Cavs on Friday 100-95 as a four-point home favorite and getting drilled at Houston on Saturday 108-89 as a 9½-point road underdog. The Hawks have won six of nine at home (5-3-1 ATS).
The Pistons are 3-0 against the Hawks this season (2-1 ATS). They squeaked out a 92-91 home win as a 7½-point favorite back in the season’s first week, then posted double-digit routs at Atlanta (106-95) on Dec. 4 and back at home (91-81) on Dec. 14, cashing in both contests. Detroit is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 visits to Philips Arena.
For the season, Atlanta is 16-10 SU and 14-11-1 ATS at home (4-2-1 ATS in the last seven), with the winner going 22-1-1 ATS in those 24 contests. However, the Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last seven on Tuesday.
Although Detroit is 17-9 on foreign turf this year (14-11-1 ATS), it has split its last eight on the highway, going 1-5 ATS in the last six. On the bright side, the Pistons are on ATS runs of 11-6 when laying 6½ points or less, 14-4 when playing on one day of rest, 12-4 following a double-digit win and 17-8 against the Eastern Conference.
During their eight-game winning streak, the Pistons have held six opponents under 90 points, Meanwhile, the Hawks have reached triple digits in scoring just once in their last eight games.
The over is 4-0 in the last four series clashes in Atlanta, 4-1 in the Hawks’ last five as an underdog, 6-0 in Detroit’s last six against the Southeast Division, 7-0 in Detroit’s last seven on Tuesday and 15-6 in Detroit’s last 21 games as a road chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and OVER
New Orleans (34-15, 30-18-1 ATS) at Chicago (20-30, 21-29 ATS)
The Bulls return home from an unsuccessful six-game road trip, and awaiting them are the Hornets, one of the NBA’s best teams both overall and on the road.
Chicago went 2-4 on its road swing, alternating losses and wins in the last five games. On the bright side, the Bulls have cashed in a season-high five consecutive games, including on Saturday at Utah, where Chicago fell 97-87 as a 12-point pup.
The Hornets have been extremely streaky over the last month, winning nine in a row (9-0 ATS), then losing three in a row (0-3 ATS) before winning their last two (1-1 ATS). However, in Saturday’s 112-99 rout of Memphis, New Orleans came up just short as a 14-point home chalk, ending an amazing string in which the straight-up winner had covered the pointspread in 25 consecutive Hornets games.
Chicago has won three straight meetings in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS) and is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes (3-1 ATS at home). Finally, the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six matchups.
The Hornets have been road warriors all year, going 17-7 SU and 16-7-1 ATS. In fact, dating to last year, they’re on a 23-7-1 ATS tear on the highway. They’re on further positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 on Tuesdays.
The Bulls are just 10-13 SU at the United Center, going 8-15 ATS, including 4-10 ATS in the last 14. They’ve also failed to cash in five straight against teams from the Southwest Division.
The over is on streaks of 9-3 for New Orleans overall, 4-1 for Chicago overall, 18-8-1 for New Orleans versus the Central Division, 22-9-1 for Chicago against the Southwest Division and 8-2 in this rivalry (3-2 in Chicago). However, the under is 4-0-1 in the Bulls’ last five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
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Bobcats F Wallace to sit out against Hawks
February 12, 2008
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -The Charlotte Bobcats will again be without leading scorer Gerald Wallace for Wednesday's game against Atlanta.
Wallace's strained right foot is feeling better, but he will still sit out for the fifth time in six games. With the All-Star break to follow, Wallace will get a week off before the Bobcats play again next week.
Guard Jason Richardson is expected to play against the Hawks despite a sprained left ankle.
Guard Derek Anderson is doubtful with a sore right knee.
The Bobcats have dropped seven in a row after Monday's 106-97 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Pistons G Richard Hamilton (19 ppg; food poisoning) is IN tonight's starting lineup.
Pacers F Mike Dunleavy (18 ppg; knee) has been upgraded to probable for tonight's game.
Pistons G Richard Hamilton (19 ppg; food poisoning) has been upgraded to probable for tonight.
Pitt G Levance Fields (12 ppg; foot) has now been downgraded to doubtful for tonight.
Nets F Richard Jefferson (23 ppg) has a stomach virus and is a game-time decision for tonight's game.
North Carolina G Ty Lawson (14 ppg; shoulder) is NOT in tonight's probable starting lineup.
Providence's leading scorer G Jeff Xavier (12 ppg; foot) is IN tonight's probable starting lineup.
Pitt G Levance Fields (12 ppg; foot) has been upgraded to probable for tonight's game, but is almost certain NOT to start.
Pennsylvania F Tyler Bernardini (13 ppg; concussion) has been added to the injury report as questionable for tonight's game.
Timberwolves G Rashad McCants (15 ppg; ankle) has been downgraded to not expected to play tonight.