(3) North Carolina (24-2, 17-6 ATS) at N.C. State (15-10, 5-16-1 ATS)
The Tar Heels, winners of three in a row, make a short Tobacco Road trip for an Atlantic Coast Conference clash with North Carolina State, which has lost three straight.
After three straight difficult games – a loss to Duke, an overtime win against Clemson and a one-point road win at Virginia – North Carolina blistered Virginia Tech 92-53 on Saturday, easily covering as a 13-point home chalk. The Tar Heels (9-2, 6-5 ATS in the ACC) shot a sturdy 50 percent against Va. Tech and stifled the Hokies, who hit just 25.9 percent. North Carolina also regained its No. 1 national ranking in rebounding, finishing with a 49-21 rebounding edge.
North Carolina State lost to Clemson 71-64 Saturday catching 5½ points at home for its third consecutive SU and ATS loss, all as an underdog. The Wolfpack (4-7, 2-8-1 ATS in the ACC) actually outshot the Tigers 40.4 percent to 37.1 percent, but Clemson went 9 of 20 from 3-point range, while N.C. State hit just 4 of 18 from long distance.
North Carolina is on a 3-0 run in this rivalry, including a 93-62 bashing last month as an 18½-point home favorite, ending an 0-3 ATS slide to the Wolfpack. The Tar Heels are 9-1 SU in the last 10 contests (6-4 ATS), while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Tar Heels, despite a dinged-up lineup lately, have almost entirely positive ATS trends, including 5-2 in ACC play and lengthy runs of 38-17 overall, 37-15-1 following a spread-cover, and 40-19-1 after a SU victory.
The Wolfpack, conversely, are on negative ATS runs of 3-7 on Wednesday, 2-5-2 versus teams with a winning road record, 8-24-2 at home (2-7-1 this season) and 1-5 in the ACC.
The over is 7-1 the last eight meetings in this series, with last month’s battle barely eclipsing the 153-point price, and the over is 5-1 the last six battles in Raleigh. For Carolina, the over is on streaks of 7-1 against teams with a winning record and 6-2 on the highway. For N.C. State, the over is on runs of 11-3 overall, 12-3 in conference play and 7-1 versus teams with a winning mark.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
West Virginia (18-7, 10-8-1 ATS) at Villanova (15-9, 7-14 ATS)
Two teams needing wins to firm up their NCAA Tournament resume get together when the Mountaineers travel to Villanova for a Big East contest.
West Virginia pounded Seton Hall 89-68 Sunday laying 13 points at home for its third win in the last four games (3-0-1 ATS). The Mountaineers (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS Big East) are shooting just 41.5 percent in their last five starts, while allowing 44.2 percent. But against the Pirates, they made 53.7 percent of their field goals, including 45.8 percent from 3-point range (11 of 24), and held a 47-22 rebounding edge, including 15-4 on the offensive end.
Villanova rolled past St. John’s 60-42 Saturday as a three-point road favorite for its second straight pointspread cover following an 0-6 ATS freefall (1-5 SU). The Wildcats, who bounced back from a disappointing 55-53 loss at Georgetown as a 13-point pup, finished with a 43.6 percent to 25.5 percent shooting edge.
West Virginia is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this series, including a 67-56 victory last month as a 1½-point home chalk. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
The Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 roadies, 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the highway against teams with a home winning percentage above .600.
The Wildcats are on negative pointspread runs of 3-12 overall, 3-10 in the Big East, 0-8 at home, 2-5 after a SU win and 2-5 after a spread-cover.
For West Virginia, the under is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 following a SU win. For Villanova, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in Big East play, 7-2 at home and 5-2 after a SU win. On the flip side, the over is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Villanova.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
(5) Duke (22-2, 13-8-2 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (17-7, 11-4-2 ATS)
The Blue Devils, who just had their 12-game winning streak snapped in upset fashion, travel to South Florida for an ACC meeting with Miami, which has won two in a row.
Duke stumbled at Wake Forest 86-73 Sunday as an 8½-point road favorite, its first loss since a 65-64 overtime setback to Pittsburgh at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20. The Blue Devils (10-1, 7-2-2 ATS in the ACC) are 1-2-2 ATS in their last five starts after covering in their first six conference outings. Duke shot 40.6 percent at Wake, seven percentage points below its season average. But the Devils lost this game at the free-throw line: all five starters fouled out, and the Demon Deacons hit 27 of 38 free throws, while Duke went just 13 of 25.
Miami squeaked past Georgia Tech 64-63 as a five-point road pup Sunday for its second straight ATS win, both on the road as an underdog. The Hurricanes (4-6, 4-4-2 ATS in the ACC) were outshot and outrebounded, but they hit 17 of 21 free throws, compared with 12 of 21 for the Yellow Jackets.
Duke is on a 6-0 run in this series (4-1-1 ATS), settling for a push earlier this month in an 88-73 home victory as a 15-point chalk. In last year’s lone meeting, the Blue Devils rolled 85-63 laying 6½ points at Miami.
The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four coming off a SU loss and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Wednesday starts. However, they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road, all in ACC play.
The Hurricanes are on positive ATS runs of 13-4-2 overall, 5-2 at home, 9-2 after a SU win, 7-2 after a pointspread victory and 9-3-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-2 at home.
For Duke, the over is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 following a SU loss. For Miami, the under is 8-2 in its last 10 coming off a SU win, but the over is 4-0 in its last four against winning teams. Also, each of the last four series meetings have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(24) Kansas State (18-6, 11-7 ATS) at Nebraska (14-9, 4-11 ATS)
The Wildcats, still in the thick of the Big 12 regular-season title chase, head to Lincoln to take on Nebraska, which has dropped two in a row.
Kansas State bounced back from an upset loss at Texas Tech by ripping Missouri 100-63 Saturday as a 9½-point home favorite, avenging a 77-74 road setback to the Tigers earlier this month as a four-point chalk. The Wildcats (8-2 SU and ATS Big 12, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four) shot 50 percent (32 of 64) and hit 30 of 36 free throws while holding Missouri to just 37.3 percent from the floor.
Nebraska lost to Iowa State 60-52 Saturday as a two-point road underdog, falling to 1-4 ATS in its last five starts (2-3 SU). The Huskers (3-7, 2-8 ATS in the Big 12) have followed each of their four spread-covers this season with at least two ATS losses.
Kansas State is 6-4 SU and ATS the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including a 74-59 home win two weeks ago, cashing as an 11-point chalk. But last year in Lincoln, the Huskers won 74-63 giving one point, and the home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes. Finally, the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups, and the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 10 series battles.
The Wildcats are on positive ATS runs of 35-17 ATS in Big 12 play, 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-2 after a SU win and 8-3 against teams with a winning record. On a negative note, K-State is 2-5 ATS on its last seven road trips and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the highway against teams with a winning home record.
The Huskers are on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 2-8 overall, 1-4 at home, 2-9 in the Big 12, 2-5 after a SU loss, 2-6 after a non-cover, 3-8 against teams with a winning record and 1-5 on Wednesday.
For K-State, the over is on tears of 6-1 in Big 12 play, 5-0 following a SU win and 4-1 on the highway. For Nebraska, the over is 5-1 in the last six at home and 5-2 in the last seven in Lincoln against teams with a losing road record. However, these teams stayed under the number earlier this month, and the under is 4-2 in the last six series meetings,
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
Dallas (35-18, 21-29-3 ATS) at New Orleans (36-15, 31-19-1 ATS)
Jason Kidd is set to make his Mavericks debut tonight in New Orleans in an important battle between a pair of Southwest Division rivals clash.
After a week of speculation, Dallas finally completed its trade for Kidd yesterday, and the perennial All-Star point guard is slated to be in uniform for this contest. The Mavericks have been off since Thursday’s 109-97 loss at Phoenix as a 7½-point road underdog. The Mavs have followed up a three-game winning streak by losing three of their last four, and they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six and 2-7 ATS in their last nine.
The Hornets have been idle since last Wednesday, when they went to Milwaukee and topped the Bucks 111-107 for their fourth consecutive victory. However, New Orleans failed to cover as a six-point road favorite, dropping to 2-5 ATS in its last seven. It marked just the second time in the Hornets’ last 29 games that the winner failed to cover the pointspread.
These teams have split their first two meetings this season, with the home team winning and covering in both contests. That includes the Hornets’ 112-108 overtime home victory as a three-point underdog on Dec. 1 – a result that snapped Dallas’ 21-game winning streak in this rivalry, a run that spanned eight years. The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes.
The Mavs have lost five of their last six road games both SU and ATS, falling to 12-15 on the highway for the season (11-16 ATS). The straight-up winner is 24-3 ATS in Dallas’ 27 road contests. Also, Avery Johnson’s squad is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Wednesday and 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 against divisional rivals.
New Orleans is 19-7 at home (14-11 ATS), including 8-1 in the last nine (7-2 ATS). The Hornets are on additional positive ATS runs of 41-20-1 overall, 15-5 following a SU victory, 20-8 on Wednesdays.
Dallas’ offense has gone stagnant over the last five games, managing just 88.6 points per game, compared with 106.8 ppg for New Orleans in its last five. Defensively, though, the Mavs rate the edge, giving up 90.2 ppg in the last five while the Hornets are surrendering 106.4 ppg in their last five, with five of New Orleans’ last seven foes scoring at least 107 points.
The over is 10-4 in New Orleans’ last 14 games, but just 5-4 on the road. However, the under is 8-3 in Dallas’ last 11 overall, 13-5 in its last 18 on the road, 5-0 in its last five divisional contests and 7-1-1 in the last nine series meetings, though the lone “over” occurred in December’s meeting in New Orleans.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
L.A. Lakers (36-17, 33-18-1 ATS) at Phoenix (37-16, 24-27-2 ATS)
A highly anticipated matchup of Pacific Division rivals is set for the US Airways Center in Phoenix, where the Suns hope to have Shaquille O’Neal on the floor for the first time since trading for the big man in a battle against Kobe Bryant and the red-hot Lakers.
Phoenix has been off since Thursday’s 109-97 rout of the Mavericks as a 7½-point home favorite. The Suns went into the All-Star Break on an 11-4 run, and they’ve followed up an 0-4-1 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers.
The Lakers came out of the break on Monday night and crushed the Hawks 122-93 as an 11-point home favorite. Los Angeles is one of the NBA’s hottest teams, having won five in a row and eight of nine. Also, Phil Jackson’s squad is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 contests.
This is the fourth meeting of the season between these hated rivals. The Lakers pulled off upset wins in the first two, prevailing 119-98 as an eight-point road underdog on Nov. 2 and 122-115 as a 2½-point home pup on Christmas Day. However, in the most recent clash on Jan. 17 in L.A., the Suns earned a 106-98 win as a 1½-point road favorite.
The Lakers are 6-3 ATS in the last nine series meetings – all as an underdog – and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Phoenix. In fact, the visitor has cashed in five of the past six battles.
Los Angeles went on a nine-game road trip prior to the All-Star game, going 8-1 ATS (7-2 SU) to improve to 18-10 on the highway on the year (18-9-1 ATS). Additionally, the Lakers are on positive ATS streaks of 6-1 against Pacific Division rivals, 11-5-1 against the Western Conference and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights.
Phoenix has won 14 of its last 17 home games, but is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 at US Airways Arena, including 1-4-1 ATS in the last six. The Suns are also mired in pointspread slumps of 1-4-1 on Wednesdays and 0-5-1 when playing on three or more days’ rest.
The Suns have topped the total in nine of their last 12 outing, including the last three in a row overall and three of the last four at home. The over is also on runs of 4-0 for Phoenix on Wednesday, 6-2 for the Lakers against the Pacific Division and 4-1 in this rivalry, with the one “under” coming in the most recent meeting a month ago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
Boston (41-20, 31-18-2 ATS) at Golden State (32-21, 22-31 ATS)
The Celtics continue their five-game Western Conference road trip with a battle against the high-scoring Warriors in Golden State.
Boston’s journey began with last night’s 124-108 loss in Denver as a one-point road favorite, snapping a five-game winning streak. It was the Celtics’ first loss of the season to a Western Conference foe after 16 straight victories (10-6 ATS). Despite last night’s setback, Boston is still 7-2 in its last nine (6-2-1 ATS).
Golden State is coming off last night’s 119-109 loss at Utah, falling as a seven-point road underdog. The Warriors won three straight home games going into the All-Star break, beating the Kings, Wizards and Suns by a combined eight points. However, they failed to cash as a favorite in all three contests, and after last night’s setback, they’re now 2-9 ATS in their last 11, including five consecutive non-covers. Over the last month, Golden State is 12-5 SU, but 5-12 ATS.
These teams met back on Nov. 21 in Boston, and the Celtics cruised to a 105-82 victory as a 10½-point home chalk, snapping a three-game losing skid to the Warriors. The home team is 7-1 in the last eight series meetings (4-4 ATS). Also, although the favorite has cashed in the last two series battles, the underdog is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 head-to-head matchups.
Tuesday’s defeat at Denver aside, the Celtics are still an NBA-best 18-6 on the road (15-8-1 ATS), and going back to last year, they’re 48-20-1 ATS outside of Beantown. Boston is also on ATS tears of 5-1 versus the Pacific Division and 22-8-1 when playing on back-to-back nights (7-3-1 this year).
The Warriors are 17-9 at home, including 9-2 in the last 11. However, they’re 9-17 ATS at Oracle Arena this season, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine. Golden State is also 0-5 ATS in its last five against Atlantic Division foes and 1-5 ATS in its last six on Wednesday.
The Warriors, who have scored at least 105 points in 17 consecutive games, have topped the total in 12 of their last 14 overall, including four of their last five at home. The over is also on runs of 7-1 for Golden State against the Eastern Conference, 37-17-1 for Golden State on Wednesday, 9-3 for Boston against the Western Conference and 4-0 for Boston on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
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Shaq’s Suns host Kobe’s Lakers on Wednesday
The Lakers and Suns already have plenty of history that makes Wednesday night’s matchup interesting, even before Phoenix acquired Shaquille O’Neal. The ongoing saga of Shaq vs. Kobe gets a new chapter now that the two former teammates play in the same conference and could collide in the playoffs down the road.
The Lakers will be playing on back-to-back nights coming off the All-Star break, after facing the new-look Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday before clashing with Phoenix on Wednesday. Los Angeles was one the NBA’s biggest surprises during the first half of the season, as they went 35-17 to sit only 1.5-games back of the Suns in the Pacific Division. Kobe Bryant averaged 26.5 points per game, second-best in the league, while the addition of Pau Gasol from Memphis softened the blow dealt when Andrew Bynum went down with a knee injury. In six games in L.A., Gasol is averaging 20.5 points and 8.3 rebounds.
The Suns entered the All-Star break with a 37-16 mark, which tied them for first place in the Western Conference with New Orleans. However, the Suns will look radically different in the second half from how they looked in the first half after trading Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq is expected to make his Phoenix debut on Wednesday night, which will give critics their first look at the big man in the Suns fast-paced run-and-gun offense.
The addition of O’Neal allows Amare Stoudemire to move to power forward, which should lighten the load on his problematic knees. Phoenix’s two big men will be flanked by Raja Bell, Grant Hill and Steve Nash, with Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa giving the Suns a strong bench. Wednesday’s game should give Suns’ fans their first taste of whether the O’Neal will help or hinder the Suns’ drive for a championship.
This will mark the fourth time this season that Phoenix and the Lakers meet up. However it may be hard to take those previous games into account when handicapping this one, because neither Gasol nor O’Neal was around. When LA and Phoenix first clashed back in November, the Lakers ripped the Suns 119-98 as a 9-point road underdog. Bryant had only 16 points in the win, while Vladimir Radmanovic led the Lakers with 19 points.
In the rematch in December the Lakers upset the Suns again, 122-115 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Bryant unleashed 38 points on Phoenix in that win, while Nash had 24 points and 14 assists for the Suns. In the third game, the Suns got some revenge in a 106-98 win as a 1.5-point road favorite. Barbosa poured in 30 points off the bench for Phoenix, while Nash was busy with 13 points and 20 assists.
