Seabass
10 Boise St.
10 Seton Hall
10 Oregon
10 Wisc. GB
50 Arizona
NHL
50 NJ Devils
BEN BURNS
NEW JERSEY
Game: Montreal Canadiens vs. New Jersey Devils Game Time: 1/24/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Devils Reason: I'm laying the price with NEW JERSEY. Both teams are playing well and both come off big offensive outbursts in their last game. The Devils scored seven goals en route to a 7-3 victory at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Montreal beat up Boston by a score of 8-2. That's worth mentioning as we find the Canadiens at 7-13 (-8.6) this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and a money-burning 38-48 (-13.8) in that situation the past three seasons. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Devils were a highly profitable 40-21 (+15.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game, including a healthy 7-4 mark this season. These teams last faced each other here back on November 30th. Montreal native Martin Brodeur was very sharp and the Devils won by a score of 4-0. With the shutout victory, Brodeur improved to an extremely impressive 34-12-5 over his career vs. the Canadiens. Additionally, the Devils moved to a perfect 9-0 the last nine series meetings, outscoring the Canadiens by a 33-16 margin during that stretch. Looking back further and we find the Devils at an awesome 20-1-3 the last 24 meetings here at New Jersey. Look for Brodeur and co. to continue their domination in this series with the Canadiens falling to 8-16 the last 24 times they faced a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. *1st Half GOY
BEN BURNS NBA
MIAMI HEAT
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 1/24/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. I won with the Spurs over the Lakers last night. However, coming off that victory, I expect them to struggle tonight. The defending champs are 0-3 ATS the last three times they played the second of back to back games, losing two of those games outright and winning the other by only four points, as -12 favorites. Looking back further and we find them at an ugly 4-11 ATS the last 15 times they played the second of back to back games. In addition to the back to back situation, the Spurs will be playing their third game in the past four days and fourth in the past six. Despite covering last night, the Spurs remain a poor 3-8 ATS this month and are now just 16-25 ATS in the month of January the past three seasons. Note that the Spurs are also 1-3 ATS this season when listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9-point range. Conversely, Miami is a healthy 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it was listed as a home underdog in the +6.5 to +9-point range. Granted, the Heat are in the midst of a major freefall. However, they've been competitive recently, with each of their last three losses coming by seven points or less. Unlike their guests, the Heat have also has the past two nights off. Not that they should need any extra motivation, but the Heat will be playing with "revenge" as they lost at San Antonio back in November. Note that Miami covered the spread in that game. Additionally, despite being listed as underdogs, the Heat hammered the Spurs 100-85 when the teams faced each other here last season. Including that victory, Miami has gone a healthy 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings here. Look for the Heat to have the fresher legs and for them to play their best game, giving the defending champs all they can handle. *TNT Blowout
OVER heat/spurs
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 1/24/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Heat and Spurs to finish OVER the total. It's true that this has primarily been a low-scoring series in the past. Its also true that the Heat have seen each of their last three games fall below the number. However, two of those three final scores would have finished above tonight's generously low number. Also, note that the last three series meetings here in Miami have all produced a minimum of 185 combined points. Additionally, the Heat have seen the OVER go 14-10 the past few seasons, after having seen their previous three games stay below the total. It's also worth mentioning that Miami's previous four games had all finished above the number. In fact, their last five games have averaged a healthy 194.4 points. That's very close to their season average of 193.4 combined points per game. Note that Miami's last four games against a Western Conference opponent have all produced a minimum of 189 points and that the OVER is 11-6 in their "non-conference" games this season. The Spurs, who have seen the OVER go 15-10 the last 25 times they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9-point range, come off a 103-91 victory over the Lakers last night. That's worth mentioning as they've seen the OVER go a perfect 4-0 the last four times they played the second of back to back games. Those four games finished with final combined scores of 238, 211, 190 and 251! With no Shaq (or Mourning) in the lineup for the Heat, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening. *TNT Total of the Month
BEN BURNS COLLEGE BASKETBALL
OREGON
Game: UCLA vs. Oregon Game Time: 1/24/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON. The Ducks have lost two in a row. However, both those losses came on the road. Tonight, they return home to McArthur Court, where they have won 11 straight games, including all eight this season. Note that the Ducks may get a boost from the return of forward Joevan Catron. Catron, who has returned to practice, averaged 10.8 points to go with his 7.9 rebounds (and 2.3 assists) in 12 non-conference games, before suffering an injury prior to Pac-10 play. Even if doesn't play tonight, the Ducks still boast four other players averaging double-digits in scoring. In fact, they're averaging a whopping 88.9 points per game at home! While the Ducks may get one of their top forwards back, the Bruins may be without a pair of theirs. That's because forwards Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Lorenzo Mata-Real both suffered concussions in the Bruins' recent loss vs. USC and neither practiced on Tuesday as a result. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, we can expect an extremely fired-up crowd and I expect that to benefit Oregon. Note that UCLA star freshman Kevin Love grew up here and that his father played for Oregon. Despite staring in high-school here, Love elected to move further south. Already upset by this decision, the Oregon fans were further angered when his father (Stan Love) made disparaging remarks about the Ducks' program. Needless to say, the fans haven't forgotten and they'll be extra "hostile" this evening. Yes, the Bruins are an elite team. However, let's keep in mind that they were 14-0 when they traveled here last January. Listed as small home underdogs, the Ducks won outright, snapping the Bruins' perfect record. The Ducks are currently listed as +3.5 or +4 point underdogs. That's worth mentioning as we find them at 3-0 ATS the last three times they were listed as home underdogs of four points or less. Conversely, the Bruins are a poor 5-11 ATS the last 16 times they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Note that the Bruins are also 1-3 ATS this season when facing a team which averages 77+ points per game. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get but am expecting an outright victory by the highly motivated home underdog Ducks. *Thursday Night Roast
WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY
Game: Cleveland State vs. Wis-Green Bay Game Time: 1/24/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Wis-Green Bay Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN GREEN BAY. The Phoenix have lost three in a row for the first time since 2001. However, they're still 6-1 at the Resch Center and 5-1 in games decided by fewer than eight points. I expect the recent "losing streak" to guarantee a huge effort tonight. As Wisconsin-Green Bay junior Ryan Tillema, the team's second leading scorer, told the local paper: We just lost three in a row, and that's something good teams can't do. Right now, we've got to come out and really get on a roll. Otherwise we're going to be in trouble." While the Phoenix are sure to be desperate, the Vikings may be patting themselves on the back a bit, as they come in on a winning streak, including wins over Valparaiso and Butler. Despite those victories, the Vikings remain an ugly 3-11 SU (5-8 ATS) the last 13 times they faced a team with a winning record, after 15 or more games have been played in the season, going just 9-25 SU against winning teams overall during the past three seasons. The Phoenix won all three meetings against the Vikings in 2007 with all three victories coming by double-digits. Looking back further and we find them at an impressive 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS the last 22 series meetings. Look for a highly motivated effort from the Phoenix as they continue that series domination and improve to 5-2 ATS the last seven times they were listed as favorites of four points or less. *Personal Favorite
Mike Rose
Golden State Warriors -9.0
The Golden State Warriors will look to get back on track this evening when they welcome in the New Jersey Nets to the Oracle Arena. The Warriors have been very charitable at home of late allowing 3 of its L/5 opponents to beat them on their own court, and they’ll be going up against a New Jersey club desperate for a victory. The Warriors have only managed an 11-8 SU and 8-11 ATS mark at home this season, while the Nets have split their 18 road games right down the middle by going 9-9 both SU and ATS.
Last we saw the Nets was on Tuesday night when they got mauled by the Sacramento Kings in Arco Arena. The Nets were out of it from the opening tip, and went on to lose both SU and ATS by a 128-94 final count. It was NJ’s 6th straight defeat, and they haven’t tasted the thrill of victory since January 9th when they knocked off the Seattle Supersonics by 11 at home. The Nets have also failed to cover the spread throughout this 6-game lapse, and they’ve only cashed their backers tickets in 7 of their L/10 overall. It’s pointless to say, but this Nets club looks to be on the brink of getting torn apart and that that’s certainly played a role in their poor play over the last 12 days.
As for the Warriors, they lost on this floor as 11.5-point home favorites to Minnesota their last time out, so it’s safe to say they’ll hit the hardwood tonight looking to bounce back from that debacle. Before that game, they put forth a 3-1 SU mark on a 4-game road trip and won their previous two games at home before that trip against Indiana and Memphis. It seems to me like they were running on fumes against the Timberwolves, and that was the lone reason why they allowed Minny to secure just their 6th victory of the season. They will have had two days of rest for this game, so expect them to bring their “A” game to the gym this evening.
These clubs met once earlier this season, and it was the Nets that pulled out the 5-point home win and cover, 100-95. It was the Nets 8th win in the series dating back 10 games, but the Warriors have been able to save face the L/2 times the Nets paid the bay a visit. That being said, the Nets have dominated this series ATS winning 9 of the L/10 match-ups. However, Golden State has covered the spread in each of their L/4 Thursday night TNT affairs. The history of this series foresees the Nets putting forth a much better effort than they did in Sacramento, but the club is falling apart at the seams and the Warriors want to turn the page on their embarrassing home loss to Minnesota. Look for the Warriors to set the tone and increase the Nets losing streak another game.
Larry Ness
No. 6 Washington State (16-1, 4-1 Pac-10) is the highest-ranked team in the Pac-10 and tied with No. 8 UCLA and No. 24 Arizona State for the best conference records. As for Arizona, the Wildcats (12-6, 2-3) have lost three of their first five conference games and were off to their worst start in 25 years before rallying to defeat California 79-75 on Saturday. Washington State goes just six-deep but the team shoots 50.1 percent from the floor (75.9 percent on FTs) plus allows 52.5 PPG, the fewest in the nation. The guard trio of Low (14.4), Weaver (111.2-4.6-4.2) and Rochestie (9.0-5.1 APG) is complimented inside by the 6-10 Baynes (12.1-6.4), the 6-10 Cowgill (7.6-4.7) and the 6-7 Harmeling (7.3). Arizona is also basically a six-man team, led by freshman guard Bayless (19.2-4.4 APG). He's joined on the perimeter by McClellan (8.3) and Wise (8.1-4.0 APG). The Arizona frontcourt features the 6-7 Budinger (17.1-5.6), the 6-9 Hill (13.8-7.9) and 6-6 freshman Horne (3.9-2.5). Arizona is not nearly as good defensively as WSU but offensively, shoots almost as well from the floor (48.6 percent) and FT line (73.8) as the Cougars, while scoring about four points more per game. WSU beat Arizona in both meetings LY but had dropped 41 of its previous 42 meetings with the Wildcats! Kevin O'Neill has taken over for Lute Olson on the Arizona bench and the Wildcats are in danger of seeing their 23-year run of NCAAA appearances end (longest active streak). The Wildcats have shown some mettle with a four-point OT loss at Kansas and competitive 10-point los at Memphis. Now, the team NEEDS a "marquee" win! This is a great spot for just that! Las Vegas Insider on Arizona.
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* New Mexico State
2. 50,000* Seton Hall
3. 50,000* Heat
1. New Mexico State- Several things I like in this spot about the Aggies, but let's start with the home court. They're 8-2 SU, but only 2-4 ATS there, but the stats tell a different story. The Aggies have gotten caught playing down to the level of their opponents at times (see Louisiana tech game). But have also showed that when focused, they can be trusted at home (wins and covers over Fresno State & New Mexico). So which Aggies team shows up tonight? Being that this is a key conference match up, I fully expect the Aggies to be highly focused for this one.
Second, speaking of which team will show up, there's no question Nevada has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Take their last game for example, where they lost badly at home to Boise State 95-80 as 6-point favorites. They allowed the Broncos to shoot 54% from the field (59% from 3-point), while only managing to shoot 43%, at home no less! Its that kind of lackadiscal effort that will cost them this game, especially now that they have to take it on the road, where they allow nearly 70 ppg this season.
Match ups also favor the Aggies, as they have the size to combat the Wolfpack's frontline with 7-footer C Martin Iti and forwards McKines and the talented but troubled freshman Pope, who was just ruled eligible and grabbed 9 boards in his first game for the Aggies. As far as the backcourt, Nevada's Kemp maybe the best player on the court, but the edge goes to New Mexico State's 4 guard rotation of Hawkins, Gibson, Peete, and Young.
Bottom line, look for the Aggies to protect their house with a focused effort on the defensive end, while Hawkins and company rip apart a very suspect Wolfpack defense on the other end. Nevada has been too inconsistent this season to trust them in this spot, and they'll prove me right tonight. Long story short, New Mexico State protects its house and grabs the cash in this one!
Take New Mexico State comfortably over Nevada as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Seton Hall- I don't know what Seton Hall team oddsmakers have been watching lately, but beating South Florida and then upsetting a surging Louisville team in back-to-back home games has to count for something! Despite the fact they lost their last two road games SU, if you watched them, you saw them easily cover against Marquette and then nearly cover at Pitt. In other words, this Pirates team has been playing damn good basketball lately, and I expect they'll build off those home wins with another solid effort here tonight.
Let's talk match ups, as both teams rely on their guard-heavy rotations to get the job done. I know what your thinking, Seton Hall's leading scorer, Brian Laing, is listed as a forward, but at 6'5 he plays a lot more like a big guard. While the Friars rely on balanced scoring, the Pirates have 3 legitimate players capable of "going off" at any time, as Laing (25 points against Louisville) leads the way, but Harvey (16 ppg) and Hazell (29 points against Louisville) can both score with the best of 'em.
Defensively, both teams are slightly above average, but neither unit will be able to consistently stop the other. Seton Hall has had some issues scoring points on the road this season, but coming off a confidence-building 92-point effort against Louisville, look for the Pirates to come out focused and firing tonight.
Finally, for anyone who follows this series, you know Seton Hall has had the Friars number, going 7-3 ATS over their last 10 meetings. While Providence whipped up on the Pirates last season at home, I expect a more mature Seton Hall team to keep this game a lot closer this time around. In the end, the Pirates deliver the cash tonight at Providence.
Take Seton Hall plus the points over Providence in this Big East match up.
3. Heat- Several factors in the Heat's favor have me siding with them tonight, despite the obvious difference in overall record between these two teams. Yes, its the mighty Spurs, but in case you haven't noticed, they haven't been playing so "mighty" of late, going 10-10 SU & 7-13 ATS over their last 10 games overall.
True, the Heat have been much worse, but let's dig a little deeper and you'll see my point...
Another factor to consider is fatigue, as a veteran-laden (a.k.a. old) Spurs team has proven vulnerable with no rest, going just 1-6 ATS in that spot. They're coming off a nice, but hard fought win over the Lakers yesterday, and are actually playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Tired legs don't bode well for Spurs-backers here, as the Spurs likely win, but covering is a different story.
Can't talk about this game without mentioning the injury to O'Neal... I maybe in the minority, but I firmly believe the Heat are not going to miss the "Big Diesel" that much. Fact is, if they still had Mourning, they wouldn't miss him at all. When the Heat go to a smaller, more mobile lineup, all of sudden their perimeter defense starts to work. On the offenive end, O'Neal is sad shell of his former self, and his absence only means more shots for the real superstar on their team - Dwayne Wade.
Bottom line, expect the Spurs to win this game, but their recent play and tired legs make covering in this spot extremely difficult. A smaller and more energized Heat unit give the tired Spurs a different look, helping them grab the cash in this one.
Take the Heat plus the points over the Spurs in this NBA match up.
Wofford's leading scorer G Shane Nichols (16 ppg; ankle) has been added to the injury report as questionable for tonight's game.
Arizona State's leading scorer James Harden (19 ppg; groin) is likely out of tonight's game per coach Herb Sendek.
Pacers F Troy Murphy (10 ppg; knee) has been added to the injury report as questionable for tonight.
Bucks G Mo Williams (17 ppg; finger) said he "will return" tonight, and "hopefully" be in the starting lineup.
Pacers F Jermaine O'Neal (knee) will not play Thursday night, as he said he is thinking about sitting out the rest of the season