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Betting News and Notes - Jan 25

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(@mvbski)
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BEHIND THE LINES

Lakers fading without Bynum

They have struggled against the spread since their starting center injured his knee.

With 22 victories against the point spread in their first 33 games, the Lakers had become one of the NBA's best bets behind the unselfish play of Kobe Bryant.

But things have changed over the last two weeks for Coach Phil Jackson's young team.

Since the Lakers covered the line with an impressive victory at New Orleans on Jan. 9, they are 1-5 against the spread heading into tonight's game at Dallas.

And, with center Andrew Bynum and swingman Trevor Ariza expected to be sidelined because of injuries until at least March, the dry spell for Lakers' supporters may continue for a while.

The Lakers, who were 7 1/2 -point underdogs and failed to cover in a 12-point loss at San Antonio on Wednesday, will be 8 1/2 -point underdogs against the Mavericks.

This will be the Lakers' first meeting this season with the Mavericks, who are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine home games against a team with a winning road record.

Accuscore.com, which simulates every game 10,000 times, says the odds of the Lakers beating the line tonight are highly unlikely without Bynum, mainly because of Kwame Brown's increased playing time.

With Bynum healthy, the Lakers won 39% of the simulations and covered the spread with an average score of Dallas 107-102.

But with Bynum out of the lineup, the Lakers won only 26% of the simulations and failed to cover with an average score of Dallas 108-99.

Of course, the difference-maker is Brown, whose negative impact has not gone unnoticed by Accuscore.com.

In the Lakers' loss at San Antonio, they were a minus-23 when Brown was on the floor. But even more alarming was Brown's role in the Lakers' recent blowout win over Denver at Staples Center.

Although the Lakers won by 17 points, they were minus-14 in the 23 minutes Brown played.

Baseball

With the start of spring training less than a month away, oddsmakers have been fine-tuning their list of future bets for the 2008 season.

The Boston Red Sox, the defending World Series champions, and New York Yankees have the top two favorite positions at Sportsbetting.com. The Red Sox are listed at 7-2, followed by the Yankees at 5-1.

They are followed by Detroit (7-1) and Cleveland and the Chicago Cubs (10-1). The Angels (12-1) are next ahead of the New York Mets and Philadelphia (15-1). The Dodgers are near the middle of the pack at 25-1.

latimes.com

 
Posted : January 25, 2008 7:32 am
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Friday’s Pregame Buzz

Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers

* The Cleveland Cavaliers have won 9 of their last 10 and five straight, including a 36-point thrashing of the Wizards on Wednesday. “We are just playing really great basketball right now,” said Cavs star LeBron James. EDGE: CAVS
* The Phoenix Suns lead the NBA in scoring with 110 points per game, including putting up 103 points on Cleveland earlier this year. The Suns have won 14 of 17 against the Cavaliers, with Steve Nash averaging 27 ppg and 13 assists in their last two victories. BIG EDGE: SUNS
* Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100+ points previously.
* Cavs are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games when playing on 1 days rest.
* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons

* Magic are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.
* Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 1 days rest.
* The OVER is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Detroit.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics

* Timberwolves are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win.
* Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss.
* The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks

* Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.
* Mavericks are 9-24-2 ATS in their last 25 games following a 100 point effort.
* Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Charlotte Bobcats at Chicago Bulls

* Bobcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games.
* Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.
* The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.

Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz

* The Utah Jazz enter this game winners of eight of ten overall, while holding their opponents to just 93 points or fewer in five of those last seven games. “We are playing very well and balanced,” said Jazz forward Matt Harpring.
* The Sacramento Kings just recently got its top three scorers from last season – Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin and Ron Artest - together in the starting lineup for the first time this season Tuesday. However, Sacramento committed 21 turnovers that game, which led to 35 Clipper points in an 111-85 loss. "We just have to get our chemistry going again," Kings center Mikki Moore said.
* Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games.
* Jazz are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers

* Rockets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games vs. the Southwest Division.
* Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
* The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Pregame.com

 
Posted : January 25, 2008 7:49 am
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Cavs' Pavlovic out 6-8 weeks

Just when the Cavaliers and their fans were basking in the glow of one of the most impressive wins in franchise history, they were slapped with some disappointing news on Thursday.

Sasha Pavlovic, a key piece to the Cavs' run to last year's NBA Finals, will miss the next six to eight weeks because of a sprained left foot he suffered in the third quarter of Wednesday's record-setting 121-85 victory over the Washington Wizards.

Pavlovic came down wrong during a play in the third quarter. After a timeout with 4:51 left in the quarter, Pavlovic walked off the court and into the locker room with a slight limp.

The Cavs are on a five-game winning streak and they've won nine out of their past 10 games. The Cavs have a good rhythm but something like this, the injury to Pavlovic, could knock them off beat. General Manager Danny Ferry, however, believes otherwise.

"This is part of the NBA and part of sports," Ferry said about injuries. "You make adjustments and move on. Other guys have to step up."

The Cavs' bench has stepped up in recently with the play from Daniel "Boobie" Gibson, Devin Brown, Damon Jones and Anderson Varejao.

The Cavs will need and look for someone off that bench to fill in until Pavlovic returns. Since the Cavs like Gibson's offensive spark coming off the bench, Devin Brown or Jones will probably start.

"The bench has been a very big part of our success night in and night out, so I am encouraged," Ferry said.

The injury is even more disappointing because Pavlovic had started to come around and play close to the level of where he was last season.

Apparently, Pavlovic's contract holdout hurt him. His 13 points against the Wizards was the first time he scored in double-digits in back-to-back games since November. Pavlovic missed all of training camp. He missed the first two games, played sparingly in the third game (against Phoenix) but was never really quite the same over the first two months of the season.

His shot was off. Pavlovic's a career 41.3 percent shooter and 35.3 percent from 3-point range. This year, he fell to 35.1 percent from the field and 28.4 percent from beyond the arc.

And when he appeared on his way back, he suffered an injury.

Donyell Marshall, who is now healthy after injuring his right wrist during the first week of the season, said Pavlovic played especially well in the last two games.

"He was playing with more confidence," Marshall said. "Guys told him to just shoot the ball and not worry about it and he started to do that. Unfortunately, he stepped wrong."

Unfortunate? Yes. But the Cavs' experience could turn into good fortune.

"Just look at our team this season," Marshall said. "We had holdouts, trade rumors and injuries and guys have stepped up and done well. We've had to deal with all of those things all year and we're still in the thick of things in the East. Don't get me wrong, the injury to Sasha is bad, but we know how to play through them."

cleveland.com

 
Posted : January 25, 2008 8:14 am
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Bulls G Ben Gordon (wrist) has been downgraded to not expected to play tonight.

Celtics G James Posey (7 ppg; finger) is likely out of action again tonight against the Timberwolves.

 
Posted : January 25, 2008 1:20 pm
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