West Sweet 16 Preview: California Love
By: BoDog Sportsbook
Plenty of upsets in the West region, but the UCLA Bruins are still the favorite.
There were plenty of upsets in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, and the West region had a chunk of them.
No. 4 UConn and No. 5 Drake fell in the first round, while No. 2 Duke made it as far as the second until No. 7 West Virginia easily dispatched them.
What this means is that most bracketologists were right about the West: No. 1 UCLA has the easiest ride to the Final Four. But it doesn't mean they can put their game on cruise control.
No. 3 Xavier and West Virginia have both shown that they could give UCLA a tough game in the Elite Eight, while anything's possible for No. 12 Western Kentucky with their two stars Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton playing lights-out basketball.
Bruins' First-Half Woes Could Be Their Undoing
As 12.5-point favorites over Western Kentucky, it appears that the UCLA Bruins are still seen as the most dominant squad in the West region. And why not? On paper, the Hilltoppers aren't in the same league as the Bruins. Xavier has the balance to hang but not the stardom. And West Virginia has the stardom to hang (Joe Alexander) but not the balance.
But there's one thing that should concern UCLA fans come Thursday: their first half performances.
The Bruins haven't led at halftime in six of their last eight games, and one of those first-half wins should be a write-off, since it was against an outclassed Mississippi Valley State team in the first round.
The Bruins have gotten so used to their first-half woes, it seems like they're starting to look at the positive side for their struggles.
"That was reminiscent of a lot of games we seem to be in lately, where we're having to make dramatic comebacks in the last few minutes," UCLA coach Ben Howland said after their 51-49 comeback win over Texas A&M in the second round. "But the one thing that I love about our team is that they know in their heart they're always going to win the game. They're going to find a way."
They could be lost by the time the second half tips off versus the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky play their best ball in the first half, averaging 38 points, and they haven't lost all year when they've led. And though they've allowed their past two opponents to make runs in the second, the Hilltoppers, unlike Texas A&M have the stars to keep UCLA at bay if they make their usual second-half run.
Western Kentucky's backcourt combination of Lee and Brazelton has shown that they have the star power to score during pressure situations. Lee had 29 points against No. 13 San Diego, including four of five makes from 3-point land while Brazelton dropped 33 and hit six 3s in their dramatic win over Drake.
"He hit a big shot, but he hit big shots all day," San Diego coach Bill Grier said about Lee after their 72-63 loss. "I think he's a future NBA kid. He played a terrific game at the right time."
The Hilltoppers will try to up the tempo early to keep UCLA from using their lock-down D in the half court. If the Bruins don't respond, they could dig themselves a hole they might not be able to get out of.
Xavier's Balance Give Them the Edge Over West Virginia
Unlike the other three squads in the West that made it to the Sweet 16, the Xavier Musketeers don't rely on one or two stars to win. All they use is balance.
"We have a number of different players that can answer the bell on offense," Musketeers coach Sean Miller said. "It's a really unique team to guard, because on different nights different people can beat you."
All five starters on the Musketeers score at least 10 points per game, but not one averages over 12. It's that kind of unselfishness that makes them a handful for any team looking to find a way to stifle their offense.
"That's why I love this team,” senior guard Stanley Burrell said. “We play for each other. We don't do any individual things whatsoever. It's all about the team and how we can help Xavier get to the next level. I'm so proud of these guys."
No. 6 Purdue felt the wrath of Xavier's balanced attack in the second round. Only one player on the team was held scoreless and four reached double digits. With that kind of balance, the fairly stingy Boilermaker defense (they hold opponents to 62.4 points per game) gave up 85 points in regulation and 50 in the second half, shocking Purdue coach Matt Painter.
"At times, we just could not stop them," Painter said.
That could make it a tough night for West Virginia (even though they're currently favored by one point). The Mountaineers allowed Duke and Arizona to score over 60 points, and their offense can be contained because it relies on one player: Joe Alexander.
Arizona was able to stifle him in the first round. He had just 14 points off 4-12 shooting after averaging 26.3 in his past six, which made for a closer contest than the final score (75-65) would indicate. Xavier has a better defense than Arizona (the Musketeers rank 48th in the NCAA while the Wildcats ranked 130th) and should be able to dispatch the Mountaineers if their other role players don't step up.
March Madness Betting
West region Final Four odds
Team (Seed) Odds
Western Kentucky 14/1
West Virginia 9/2
UCLA 2/5
Xavier 9/2
Best Bet
Can't go wrong with Western Kentucky against the spread at the current price of +12.5. The Bruins struggle out the gate while the Hilltoppers thrive. That should make the game close even if the Bruins turn it up in the second. UCLA will likely pull off another nail biter, but the Hilltoppers should cover.
Headed to the Final Four
Despite my reservations that they're too relaxed in the first half, I'm going to stick with UCLA in this one. Xavier has the defensive mentality and the unselfishness to make it a tough matchup for the Bruins in the Elite Eight, but the Bruins have all those things along with two stars, Kevin Love and Darren Collison. As many predicted, the Bruins will make it out of the West.
Miami at Detroit, 8:05 ET
Miami: 8-19 ATS off a road loss
Detroit: 11-6 ATS playing on back-to-back days
Portland at Golden State, 10:35 ET TNT
Portland: 12-2 ATS off SU win as underdog
Golden State: 8-2 Under vs. Portland
(TC) Dallas at Denver, 8:05 ET TNT
Dallas: 0-4 ATS at Denver
Denver: 29-19 ATS as favorite