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Betting News and Notes - Mar. 7

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(@mvbski)
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Surgery puts out Pollard

Scot Pollard’s season is over. The Celtics [team stats] backup center learned yesterday that his left ankle injury has worsened to the point where he now needs surgery.

“When I hurt the ankle in September, it never fully recovered,” he said before the Celtics took the floor against the Pistons last night. “I played with that all year. It was painful at times, but no big deal.

“Well, it’s ruptured now. That (tendon) was pretty much the last thing that was holding my ankle together.”

Pollard said the injury is similar to the one suffered by Curt Schilling [stats] late in the 2004 Red Sox [team stats] season, but whereas more movement is required of a basketball center than is a baseball pitcher, he will not be able to go the bloody sock route.

“The only decision is whether to get it (the surgery) in Indiana or get it here,” Pollard said. “I’m going to go out to Indiana and talk to my doctor and get his advice and see where I feel more comfortable.”

There isn’t much comfort in any of this for the affable pivotman, except for the fact that he should finally be free of this issue after his rehab.

“It’ll be better because they can fix a lot of other stuff that’s wrong with my ankle,” he said. “There’s bone spurs and I have arthritis and my ligaments are all gone. They can reattach those. So they’re going to do a whole reconstruction of my ankle and it’s going to be better than it is now.”cw0

Pollard’s season thus ends with just 22 appearances. He played in just two of the Celtics’ last 26 games (three minutes vs. Phoenix and seven vs. Portland).

After his latest action, Feb. 24 against the Blazers, Pollard said he felt a step behind. He had been able to get back on the active roster by wearing large ankle braces generally reserved for football’s offensive lineman. The braces restricted his movement, but he was happy to be able to play.

Considering Pollard signed just a one-year free agent contract last summer ($1,219,590), the 33-year-old’s Celtics career could possibly be over.

Pollard acknowledged that last night, but he added, “I haven’t even gotten that far yet. I’m still shocked. I feel like I got punched and I’m a little dizzy. I feel like I’m punch drunk.”

The Celtics now have a full 15-man roster, with just 12 eligible to dress for each game. Rookie Gabe Pruitt has been sent to the NBA Development League, while the latest addition, Sam Cassell, was still in Baltimore for a family funeral last night.

bostonherald.com

 
Posted : March 7, 2008 7:48 am
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NCAAB

-- Brown won eight of last nine games, beating Harvard 71-51 in first meeting (-9), holding Crimson to 32% from floor. Bruins are 3-2 on Ivy road, losing at Yale, Cornell. Harvard is 3-2 in its Ivy home games; home side is 10-2 vs spread in its Ivy games.

-- Yale is 1-4 on Ivy road, winning only at Princeton; they're 1-4 in last five overall (0-5 vs spread) , failing to cover last three as favorite. Dartmouth (+9) lost 97-58 at Yale Feb 9, as Yale made 64% from floor, 11-17 from arc- they're 2-2 as home dog.

-- Princeton lost last nine games, is 2-17 in its last 19 games vs D-I foes; they lost 68-53 at Columbia Feb 9 (+6). Lions are 6-2 in last eight games; they're 5-0 vs spread in Ivy road (3-2 SU), but 3-4 vs spread as favorite in conference games this year.

-- Conell has already clinched Ivy title; they beat Penn 87-74 in first meeting (-14), making 10-17 from arc, 27-29 on the foul line. Big Red covered four of last five games; they're 4-5 vs spread as Ivy League favorite, 1-1 on the road.

Colonial Tournament
Towson State lost six of last eight games; they were 0-9 in its CAA road games, losing 81-67 at Hofstra Feb 20 (+5.5). Home side won both series meetings, with teams combined 22 for 73 (40.1%) from arc. Hofstra won three of their last four games.

William & Mary (+1.5) won 60-58 at Georgia State, after trailing 35-26 in only meeting this season, but they lot five of last six games, after being 9-3 in CAA at one point. Panthers lost six of last eight games; they're 9-4 vs spread as a CAA underdog.

Visiting team won both Drexel-Delaware games, as Hens made just 9-36 from arc. Delaware was 5-0 in CAA at one point, but wound up 9-9, losing three of last four on road. Dragons split last six games- they lost eight of nine conference road games.

James Madison (+5.5) won 68-65 at Northeastern way back on Dec 1, in CAA opener; Dukes lost 11 of last 13 games- they're 1-8 vs spread in last nine tries as underdog. Huskies lost three of last four games, are 3-6 vs spread as favorite in CAA play.

Missouri Valley Tournament
Drake beat Indiana State twice this season, 75-50 at home (-9.5) Jan 9, then 83-77 at ISU Feb 2nd (-3.5)- they took 63 FTs in two games, Sycamores 30. Indiana State had tough win vs Wichita last night; they're 4-2 in last six games, after a 1-7 slump. Drake covered just one of last five as a favorite.

Creighton beat Bradley 111-110 in double OT Saturday; this is third meeting in last 15 days. with Braves winning first meeting 87-59 in Peoria (-3). Bradley was 27-56 (48.2%) from arc in the two games. Bluejays won first MVC tourney game in seven of last nine years, but one of losses was to Bradley two yrs ago.

Illinois State won three in row, five of last six games, after 13-5 season in MVC, they have high hopes; ISU beat Missouri St twice this year, 64-63 at SMS Feb 2 (+2.5), then 69-57 at home 11 days later (-7). Bears beat Evansville last night, their fourth win in row- rumor has it they're playing for coach Hinson's job

Home side won both Northern Iowa-Southern Illinois tilts, as UNI took 40 FTs in its home win, three in road loss. Salukis are 4-1 in last five games, 7-4-1 vs spread as MVC favorite- they've won first game in this event last six years, all by 12+ pts. UNI is 0-4 vs spread in last four games as an underdog.

Horizon Tournament
Valparaiso beat Wright State twice this season, 71-66 back on Dec 6 (+1.5), 75-73 in OT at home six days ago, after Wright St rallied from 13-pt halftime deficit to force OT. Crusaders are on 5-game win streak, with pair of OT wins. Wright ended 3-game skid when it beat Detroit in its first round game Tuesday.

Illinois-Chicago beat Loyola twice this season,. 78-68 in double OT in January (-8), 60-55 last month at Loyola; Ramblers made 9-34 (26.5%) from arc in two games. UIC covered four of its last five as Horizon favorite; Ramblers covered seven of last nine as a Horizon underdog. Loyola lost five of its last seven games

WCC Tournament
Home side won both LMU-San Francisco games, with Dons a 88-79 winner at home (-12) six days ago- they shot 55% in that game, were 28-35 on foul line. LMU lost last seven games and 11 of last 12- they're 1-5 vs spread in last six games. USF won three of last four games- they're 2-3 as a WCC favorite.

Visiting team won both Portland-Pepperdine games, with Pilots leading both at half, by 9-12 points. Waves split last six games after 1-7 start in conference, Portland lost five of last six tilts; LY, they won their first WCC tourney game in 11 years, so this has always been bad spot for them.

Southern Conference Tournament
Home side won both Wofford-Western Carolina games, but in both games, Western led at half, by 7-9 points. Wofford is odd team; they won at Purdue in December, but is 1-6 in last seven games, with only win vs hapless Citadel. Western covered six of last seven tries as underdog in conference games.

Elon beat Furman twice this season, 66-61 at home Dec 1 (-9), after trailing 32-21 at half, then 60-58 at Furman Jan 12 (-2), in a game they led by nine at half. Elon is 4-2 in last ix games, with pair of OT wins. Paladins split last six games after 3-11 start in conference- they're 6-4 vs spread in last 10 tries as underdog.

Charleston beat Citadel twice this season, 69-46 on road Jan 14 (-15), in game that was 32-9 at half, 63-48 at home Feb 4 (-16), a game that was 30-18 at half. Citadel is 1-19 in SoCon, losing its last five games (0-3-1 vs spread in last four). Charleston is 3-1 vs spread in last four games as the favorite.

MAAC Tournament
Home side won both Manhattan-St Peter's games; Jaspers hit only 18-37 foul shots in the two games (St Peter's was 39-53). Peacocks lost last five games, last three by 11+ points; they're just 8-21 from foul line in last two games. Manhattan lost in the first round of this event the last two years.

Iona beat Canisius twice this season, 57-52 (-5.5) on road, and 66-59 at home (-14); neither team shot 40% from floor in either game. Griffins are 2-16 in MAAC, losing last seven conference games, though they did upset Albany in Bracket Busters; they are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as the underdog.

Ohio Valley Tournament
Austin Peay beat UT-Martin twice this season, 90-85 in OT on road Jan 3 (-4), then 86-71 at home two weeks later (-9). Martin is in this round of OVC tourney for first time after winning 3OT thriller vs Samford Tuesday. Peay won last four games, they're 5-1 vs spread in last six as favorite. Martin is 6-1 in last seven.

Murray State shot 56% from floor in both games vs Tennessee State this season, but home side won both; Racers lost 75-70 at TSU (+1.5). State won four of last five games, covering five of last seven as an underdog. Murray is 2-8 vs spread in last 10 games, 2-5 vs spread in last seven tries as the favorite.

 
Posted : March 7, 2008 8:07 am
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NBA Tips and Trends

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors

Wizards: Andray Blatche (7.5 ppg) has struggled a bit since getting benched in favor of Darius Songalia as the team attempts to replace Caron Butler in the starting lineup. In Washington's 2 losses since the change was made, Blatche has made 3-of-23 shots from the field (13 percent), scoring 8 points and grabbing 8 rebounds.

Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
Wizards are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Raptors: In the last meeting with Washington, Toronto found out an hour before the game that Butler would not play and seemed to underestimate the Wizards before losing in overtime. Insiders believe head coach Sam Mitchell will have the Raptors ready for what has become a revenge game.

Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The OVER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.

F Chris Bosh (23 ppg; knee) is out. Raptors are 3-6 ATS without him this season.

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks

Pistons: With the Celtics winning the last meeting with Detroit on Wednesday, insiders expect head coach Flip Saunders to increase playing time for the team's reserves. Theo Ratliff and Juan Dixon have recently been added to the team and should see more minutes down the stretch to rest starters.

Pistons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
Pistons are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. Atlantic Division.

F Rasheed Wallace (13 ppg; ankle) is probable. Pistons are 1-2 ATS without him this season.

Knicks: Injured point guard Stephon Marbury made his first appearance at Madison Square Garden since undergoing ankle surgery back on January 22nd. Marbury was reportedly banned from the premises, and his relationship with head coach Isiah Thomas appears to be over.

Knicks are 0-4 SU in their last 4 games, failing to cover their last 3.

F Zach Randolph (18 ppg; foot) is questionable. Knicks are 2-6 ATS without him this season.

New Jersey Nets at New Orleans Hornets

Nets: This is a revenge game for the Nets after New Orleans used a pair of 4-point plays to beat them back on November 12th. The Hornets trailed 82-78 with 2:10 left before tying the game with the second one and then won it with 2.8 seconds remaining. New Jersey played that game without Vince Carter, who is shooting 49 percent from the field since Jason Kidd was traded (he is a career 45 percent shooter).

Road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Hornets: New Orleans plays 11 of its last 22 games against Eastern Conference opponents. The Hornets are 13-5 vs. the East this season, with 2 of those losses coming to the Wizards in the last couple weeks.

Hornets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Hornets are 4-1 SU & ATS in their last 5 games overall.

F David West (20 ppg; ankle) is questionable. Hornets are 2-0 ATS without him this season.

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

Bulls: Chicago is in the midst of one of the toughest stretches of the season. The Bulls played Cleveland on Thursday night and must play Detroit and Utah after visiting the Celtics. That adds to the challenge of trying to work Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden into the lineup, as they must do so against some of the league's best teams.

Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
Bulls are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings but have failed to cover the last 3.

Celtics: Boston became the first team to officially clinch a playoff berth with Wednesday's win over Detroit, which was also big because it guaranteed home court if the teams should finish the regular season tied and meet in the postseason.

Celtics have won 6 in a row SU but have gone 1-3 ATS in their last 4.

G Sam Cassell (13 ppg; trade) is expected to be in Boston by Friday morning, and is probable to make his debut.

Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns

Jazz: Utah will play its first game against the new-look Suns with Shaquille O'Neal in the lineup, and this could also potentially be a first-round playoff matchup. The Jazz won the previous meeting with Phoenix by 22 points, but the Suns played that game without Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Grant Hill due to illness and injuries.

Jazz are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Jazz are 4-1 SU & ATS in their last 5 games overall.

F Andrei Kirilenko (hip) is out. Jazz are 4-2 ATS without him this season.

Suns: Phoenix may have a secret weapon here in Gordan Giricek, the former Utah sharp-shooter who feuded with head coach Jerry Sloan before getting dealt to Philadelphia for Kyle Korver earlier this season. The 76ers released him - allowing the Suns to pick him up - and he scored 11 points in his team debut on Wednesday.

Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Northwest Division.

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers

Clippers: The team should have Chris Kaman available for this game, although his playing time has been limited to 25 minutes per game by head coach Mike Dunleavy. Despite all the injuries, the Clips have been led by Corey Maggette, who has scored 20 points or more in 21 of his last 24 games - the best stretch of his career.

Clippers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games overall, going 2-5 ATS.

F Tim Thomas (13 ppg; groin) is doubtful. Clippers are 4-7 ATS without him this season.

Lakers: It was only a few years ago that the Clippers were threatening the reign of the Lakers as the best team in LA. That's obviously no longer in question, as the Lakers have won both meetings this season by a combined 39 points. They are 13-2 with Pau Gasol in the lineup, and he is coming off a Laker-high 31 point at Sacramento on Tuesday.

Lakers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Pacific Division.
Lakers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

Spurs: San Antonio's winning streak will be tested over the next 9 days, as the team visits Denver, Phoenix, New Orleans and Dallas with a home game against the Nuggets sandwiched in between. The Spurs had won 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents during a 13-1 run going into Thursday's matchup with Indiana.

Spurs are 6-3-1 ATS during their 10-game winning streak.
Spurs are 5-1 SU & ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Spurs are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver.

Nuggets: Wednesday's win over the Suns was a step in the right direction for a team that is currently on the outside looking in on the Western Conference playoff picture. Denver must play San Antonio again Monday on the road and has proven to be a very successful team at home with a 24-7 mark. However, the Nuggets still sit 1 game behind Golden State for the final playoff spot, and they realize they must take advantage of games like this.

Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

 
Posted : March 7, 2008 8:08 am
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Struggling Suns face Jazz on Friday night

The Phoenix Suns’ slide down the Western Conference standings continued this week, as they have fallen all the way down to sixth place in the conference. Believe it or not the Suns are only three games up on eighth-place Golden State.

The Suns head home to host Utah on Friday night in what could be called a must-win game for the sinking Suns. Utah on the other hand has a comfortable lead in the Northwest and has their sights set on New Orleans and third place in the West.

The Jazz won their third in a row Wednesday night after crushing Minnesota 105-76 as a 14.5-point favorite. Utah was all over the T-Wolves in the win, as Deron Williams scored a team-high 21 points to go along with 11 assists, while Carlos Boozer chipped in with 16 points and 14 rebounds. Ronne Brewer also poured in 16 points and grabbed 18 rebounds.

The Suns lost a high-scoring shootout to Denver on Wednesday night, 126-113 as a 7-point underdog. Despite shooting 53 percent from the field and having eight players score in double figures, the Suns still lost. That marked Phoenix’s third loss in their last four games and dropped them to 3-5 since Shaquille O’Neal joined the starting lineup.

Amare Stoudemire led Phoenix with 22 points in the loss, while Shaq registered 12 points and 18 rebounds. Steve Nash had 13 assists for the Suns, but had a poor shooting night with 12 points on 4-of-11 shooting.

The Suns and Jazz have clashed twice so far this season with each team winning once at home. Back December the Suns defeated the Jazz 103-98 as a 7.5-point home favorite. Nash led Phoenix with 29 points and 11 assists in the win, while Boozer had 24 points and 13 rebounds for Utah.

When Phoenix and Utah met up again in January the Jazz destroyed the Suns 108-86 as an 8-point home favorite. Phoenix was severely shorthanded in the loss with Nash, Shawn Marion and Grant Hill all out with injuries. Mehmet Okur stepped up for Utah with 22 points and 17 rebounds, while Leandro Barbosa led the Suns with 25 points.

 
Posted : March 7, 2008 8:16 am
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COLLEGE BASKETBALL

MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT

(at St. Louis, Mo.)

Bradley (17-14, 16-12-1 ATS) vs. Creighton (20-9, 14-11 ATS)

Creighton (10-8, 9-9 ATS in conference) closed the regular-season on a 6-3 run, including Saturday’s thrilling 111-110 double-overtime victory over Bradley. However, the Bluejays failed to cash as a 7½-point home favorite, dropping to 5-7 ATS in their last 12.

Bradley (9-9, 12-6 ATS in conference) followed up a 9-2 run by losing its final two regular-season contests. However, with Saturday’s spread-cover at Creighton, the Braves finished on a 12-3 ATS roll after starting conference play 0-5 ATS.

In addition to Saturday’s meeting, these teams faced each other on Feb. 16 at Bradley, and the Braves rolled to an 87-59 win as a two-point home chalk. The schools have alternated SU wins and losses in the last eight meetings, and the favorite and underdog have alternated spread-covers in the last eight. But Bradley is 5-2 ATS in the last seven, and the chalk is still 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20 clashes.

The Braves are on ATS streaks of 6-0 on Fridays and 6-1 in neutral-site games. Meanwhile, Creighton is 4-1 ATS in its last five on Friday and 5-1 ATS in its last six at neutral sites.

The over is on streaks of 19-8-1 for Creighton overall (10-5-1 last 16), 8-0 for Bradley overall, 10-4-1 for Bradley on the road this season and 7-2-2 in this rivalry (3-0 in the last three).

ATS ADVANTAGE: BRADLEY and OVER

Northern Iowa (17-13, 14-13 ATS) vs. Southern Illinois (17-13, 15-14-1 ATS)

Southern Illinois (11-7, 10-7-1 ATS in conference) had a five-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 57-49 home loss to Illinois State as a six-point home chalk, ending a 4-0-1 ATS roll. The Salukis went 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in their final six Missouri Valley games on the highway.

Northern Iowa (9-9, 10-8 ATS in conference) finished with consecutive wins over Indiana State on Feb. 27 (73-58 as a 5½-point home chalk) and Evansville on Saturday (71-68 as a 2½-point road favorite). The two-game run follows a 1-5 slump (0-6 ATS).

These teams have split their regular-season series’ the last two years. This season, Northern Iowa won 68-63 as a two-point favorite on Feb. 2, and the Salukis rolled 67-47 as an eight-point chalk 18 days late. The Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, but the last time they met in the Missouri Valley tournament in 2006, Southern Illinois pulled off a 55-46 upset in overtime as a two-point underdog.

Southern Illinois is on pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 after an ATS setback, 5-1 on Fridays and 5-1 at neutral sites. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral contests, but 5-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover.

The over was 10-5 in the Salukis’ final 15 conference games and 11-3-1 in Northern Iowa’s last 14 contests. However, the under is 4-2 in the last six series clashes between these schools (1-1 this year). Also, the under is on streaks of 10-1 for Northern Iowa at 11 neutral-site games, 20-8 for Southern Illinois’ at neutral venues, 5-0 for Northern Iowa on Fridays and 4-0 for Southern Illinois on Fridays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

NBA

Utah (40-22, 33-29 ATS) at Phoenix (40-21, 27-32-2 ATS)

The Jazz travel to the Arizona desert hoping to take advantage of the Suns’ recent struggles inside the U.S. Airways Center in this key Western Conference matchup.

Phoenix has dropped three of four in front of the home fans and is 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10, including Saturday’s embarrassing 119-114 loss to the Sixers as 9½-point favorites. The Suns followed that defeat with a four-point win at Portland on Tuesday, then came back on Wednesday in Denver and fell to the Nuggets 126-113 as a seven-point underdog.

The Suns are 4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) in their last 10 overall, and their defense has been nonexistent lately, surrendering 114 points a game on 50 percent shooting in their last five.

Utah has rattled off three consecutive SU and ATS wins, routing Minnesota at home Wednesday 105-76, covering the 14½-point spread. The Jazz have won 22 of their last 27 overall (18-9 ATS).

These teams have split a pair this season with the home team getting the win each time. Phoenix prevailed 103-98 on Dec. 12 but came up short as 7½-point favorites, while Utah dominated the Suns in Salt Lake City on Jan. 10, rolling 108-86 and easily cashing as a 7½-point chalk. The Jazz have won five of the last seven in this series, and they’re 7-3 ATS in the last 10.

Jerry Sloan’s squad is just 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four on the highway, but the one victory came in its most recent road game at Memphis, a 113-92 rout as a 9½-point favorite. For the season, the Jazz are just 13-19 SU and ATS as a visitor.

The over is on runs of 18-5 for Utah against the Pacific Division, 8-2 for the Suns overall and 6-2 with the Suns as a favorite. However, the under is 6-2-1 in the last nine series clashes and 8-3 in Phoenix’s last 11 against the Northwest Division.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH

San Antonio (43-17, 28-30-2 ATS) at Denver (36-24, 30-30 ATS)

The Spurs try to extend their 11-game winning streak when they visit the Pepsi Center in Denver to take on the Nuggets.

San Antonio improved to 15-1 in its last 16 overall (9-6-1 ATS) with Thursday’s 108-97 home win over the Pacers, falling just shy as a 13-point favorite. On the road the Spurs have won five straight (3-2 ATS) and nine of their last 10 (6-4 ATS).

Denver has won three of its last four, including Wednesday’s 126-113 rout of the Suns as seven-point home favorites. George Karl’s team is 18-13 ATS in the Mile High City this year, including 10-4 ATS in the last 14.

The Nuggets snapped a five-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Spurs back on Jan. 3, scoring an 80-77 home win as 2½-point favorites. It was just the second time Denver cashed at home in its last eight against San Antonio, which played the January game without All-Star Manu Ginobili.

The favorite has cashed in 22 of the last 30 series battles.

San Antonio sports negative ATS trends of 4-9 when playing on back-to-back nights, 1-4 as an underdog, 2-8 as a road underdog and 0-5 as an underdog of less than five points. On the bright side, the Spurs 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 against Northwest Division foes.

Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine Friday night tip-offs, but 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against the Southwest Division and 1-4 when playing on one day of rest.

The under is 23-5-1 in the last 29 meetings in this rivalry, including 10-0 in the last 10 overall and 4-0 in the last four in Denver. Also, the under is on streaks of 15-6 for the Spurs on the road, 7-1 when the Spurs are an underdog and 5-0 for the Spurs on back-to-back nights. Conversely, the over is 6-2 in Denver’s last eight overall and 7-1 in its last eight as a favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER

Gametimepicks.com

 
Posted : March 7, 2008 12:07 pm
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