Betting Teams On The NCAA Tournament Bubble
By ADAM THOMPSON
Kentucky, Kansas, Duke and Syracuse don’t have to worry about earning a NCAA Tournament berth.
But many BCS conference teams still do. And though it’s still a few weeks to go before conference tournaments begin, several teams are in must-win mode right now.
While some teams have more immediate cause for concern than others, these six programs still need some big victories in the coming weeks to catch the eye of the selection committee. Bettors could find value with that extra motivation on their side.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (17-8, 12-7-2 ATS, 29 RPI)
The Yellow Jackets have signature wins against Duke, North Carolina (back when beating the Hells was considered such) and Clemson.
But because of some questionable losses (Dayton, Georgia, Florida State twice), they’re just 5-6 and in eighth place in the ACC. Seven teams from the conference made the NCAA Tournament last year.
And they’ve lost two of their last three games, not a good way to impress the NCAA selection committee.
But here’s the good news: Georgia Tech doesn’t play another ranked team for the rest of its four-game regular season. It’s by no means a cakewalk, though. Games at Maryland and at Clemson won’t be easy. But winning two of those games will likely secure a spot.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (17-7, 10-7-1 ATS, 33 RPI)
Despite playing in the competitive Big 12, Oklahoma State’s strength of schedule isn’t ranked anywhere near the Top 100. But the Cowboys do have two signature wins, an 81-52 rout of then-No. 22 Texas Tech on Jan. 9 and a win at No. 10 Kansas State (73-69) on Jan. 23, and no truly horrible losses.
The Cowboys’ hopes took a big hit, however, when it was announced Saturday that starting point guard Ray Penn would miss the rest of the season (knee). The Cowboys can’t stumble and still expect an at-large bid to be there waiting.
And the remaining schedule isn’t easy. Four of the team’s final six games are against Top-25 teams, with games at Texas and Texas A&M and home games against Baylor and Kansas. Win two of those, as well as the other games against Nebraska and Iowa State and it would be difficult to leave them out. Win just one and players will be watching the selection show with great interest.
Washington Huskies (17-8, 8-16 ATS, 53 RPI)
In the Pacific 10, anybody can beat anybody. First-place California is 9-4 in league play, while last-place Oregon is 4-8.
The Huskies are 7-6. They’ve beat Cal 84-69 and lost to Oregon 90-79.
They do have one of the more dynamic under-the-radar players in Quincy Pondexter, who’s averaging 20 points and eight rebounds per game. But for Washington, every game is winnable - and losable.
This week, Washington plays its final two home games against USC Thursday and UCLA Saturday. After that, the Huskies end the season with three straight road games. They just picked up their first road win of the season over Stanford Saturday.
Marquette Golden Eagles (16-8, 12-6 ATS, 59 RPI)
Just a few weeks ago, it appeared the Golden Eagles’ chances of getting to the Big Dance were evaporating. But they’ve rebounded in a big way and, at 7-5 in the Big East, are poised to finish strong - the goal of every team hoping for success in late March.
Marquette was just 2-5 before winning its last five. If the roll continues, the Eagles won’t be on the bubble soon. But if the squad that reared its ugly head early losses to N.C. State and DePaul, they could wobble right back on it.
Marquette hosts No. 18 Pittsburgh Thursday, followed by three road games, with a Saturday showdown at Cincinnati as the most difficult.
Home games against Louisville and Notre Dame, games that will likely be huge for both teams, conclude the regular season.
Florida Gators (17-8, 11-9 ATS, 60 RPI)
The Gators are swooning for a bubble squad, having lost three of their last five games. Of their final six games, three are versus Top-25 programs with home contests against Tennessee and Vanderbilt and at Kentucky.
Florida will likely have to win at least one of those as well as the other three games to make the selection committee notice.
Florida could have secured a key resume builder Saturday, but fell at home to Xavier 76-64. The Gators do have an early-season victory over Michigan State, but also have a loss to South Alabama.
Illinois Fighting Illini (19-7, 10-15 ATS, 70 RPI)
The RPI would suggest Illinois is way on the outside looking in. But along with Marquette, the Illini have done a good job of getting themselves back into March Madness talk.
Illinois had won five in a row, including victories over then-No. 5 Michigan State and at No. 11 Wisconsin. It lost at No. 13 Ohio State Sunday.
The schedule sets up favorable for Illinois, kind of. It’s certainly not easy, with three of its final five games at No. 4 Purdue, at No. 9 Ohio State and against Wisconsin. But it does give the Illini the chance for a few more marquee victories and they’ll need them to get into the Big Dance.