Betting the NBA schedule
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
Chances are Stephen Jackson is spending most of today staring out of his luxury hotel room in Minneapolis and contemplating how much fun the next five days will be. Jackson is the one of the few legitimate NBA players on a Golden State group that has won on the road only five times this season, and the prospects for victory in the immediate future don’t look too bright as the Warriors play four games in the next five days. At least it will be over quickly.
After Tuesday night’s game against the Timberwolves, they fly southeast to Chicago Wednesday night, then conclude the whirlwind tour of the Rust Belt with games Friday in Detroit and Saturday in Milwaukee. None of the Warriors’ opponents figure to be holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy come late spring or early summer, but if you’re Golden State and can count all your road victories on one hand, every game is a tough game to win.
Betting on or against a team on a four-games-in-five-days stretch can provide opportunity, though.
“In general,” notes Randy Scott, sportsbook manager at betED.com, “public bettors don’t factor back-to-backs as a decision-maker for them. (But) for other types of bettors it’s a big part of their handicapping, especially road teams playing two games in two nights.
“The good teams will always remain the public favorite regardless of their spot and the odds are usually set (inflated) to combat that. Any good team giving a short amount of points in any circumstance seems to be an automatic bet for the public.”
Savvy gamblers, says Scott, go against the grain, seeking out inflated prices on teams that the public doesn’t like (yes, Golden State) and “achieve good value for their wager.”
Anyone considering backing Golden State on any or all games in this stretch, though, should be forewarned. The Warriors have averaged just about one road win a month (five all season, puzzling considering that they went 21-20 away from home in 2007-08). And their only other four-in-five stretch this season – Nov. 25-29 at Washington, Boston, Cleveland and New York – produced four Ls and only one cover (an 8-point loss to the Celtics).
And don’t forget the Nellie-being-Nellie factor. Coach Don Nelson has shown that any time and without warning he might bench his entire starting lineup and start five reserves.
Elsewhere, the Memphis Grizzlies, one of the few teams in the NBA even more road-challenged than the Warriors, will play seven of their next eight away from home – and six of those eight games will be part of back-to-backs. The Grizz have been unbearable this year (15-43 SU, 22-35 ATS), so bad that it almost doesn’t matter if they have rest or not. Their only wins on the road are at Washington, Oklahoma City and Golden State.
Then there’s Utah. On Sunday the Jazz start a five-game road trip (Toronto, Indiana, Atlanta, Miami and Orlando), with the final four part of back-to-backs March 10-11 and 14-15. How Utah stands when they finish up at the House of the Mouse on the ides of March will pretty much determine if the Jazz will be in the hunt for the No. 4 playoff seed (and with it first-round home-court edge) in the Western Conference. One cautionary note for Jazz backers: Utah is 3-9 ATS on the rear end of back-to-backs this season.