Big 10 Preview
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
With the NBA season still on hold, college basketball has a chance to shine. Early season tournament action starts soon and we are just a few weeks away from some of the marquee early season match-ups, including the ACC/Big Ten Challenge in late November. For the first time ever, it will be a 12-on-12 contest with the Big Ten adding Nebraska to the mix. Here is a very early look at the Big Ten this season, looking ahead to some of the November match-ups.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes finished 34-3 last season and entered the NCAA tournament as the prohibitive favorite, but they ran into a talent-rich Kentucky team in the Sweet 16, losing 62-60. A couple of key players are gone from last year's squad, including sharpshooter Jon Diebler as well as long-time contributor David Lighty. The biggest expected departure didn't happen as All-American Jared Sullinger kept his word and returned to the team for his sophomore season. Also back is sophomore point guard Aaron Craft and versatile guard William Buford. The influx of talent is significant with Amir Williams leading the way, giving Ohio State some serious size up front. Overall, Ohio State can be just as much of a national threat as last season and will open as the Big Ten favorites. Ohio State will be tested early, facing Florida early in the season and then hosting Duke in the challenge preceding a big game at Kansas in early December.
Wisconsin
The Badgers also made it to the Sweet 16 last March before an embarrassing season-ending blowout loss to Butler. Wisconsin has been one of the most consistent programs in the nation, even if has not led to deep tournament runs. Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil will leave a bit of a scoring void for Wisconsin, but point guard Jordan Taylor was named to the preseason All-American team. Sophomore Josh Gasser and junior Jared Berggren will expect expanded roles on this year's team and there is some returning depth. On paper, Wisconsin does not look nearly as strong as last season, but with Taylor distributing and the always fierce defense under Bo Ryan, this team will likely stay in contention in the Big Ten standings and keep the long NCAA tournament streak going. Wisconsin has a marquee early season game at North Carolina following by hosting Marquette, which will be a great measuring stick for the new roster.
Purdue
The Boilermakers have battled injuries in recent seasons and Robbie Hummel will be the face of this year's team as he looks to return from another season lost due to an ACL tear. JuJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore were two of the best players in the conference last year and took on the bulk of the scoring for Purdue last season so a step back may be hard to avoid. The backcourt features experience and a couple of promising freshmen could step in to contribute immediately. Purdue should remain a great defensive team, but the Boilermakers may go through some scoring droughts unless Hummel can quickly return to his peak form. Purdue does not have an overly difficult early season schedule, so there will be some time for this team to grow. They host Miami in the ACC-Big Ten challenge and will travel to Cincinnati to face Xavier before catching Butler just before the Big Ten season.
Michigan
The Wolverines might have been the favorites in the Big Ten had Darius Morris opted to return, but Michigan has enough depth to fill his role. Tim Hardaway had a breakout season last year and three other returning starters give the Wolverines a lot to work with this season. Michigan has not been the most consistent program in recent years, but they did get hot late last season and gave Duke all it could handle in the second round of the Big Dance. Freshman Trey Burke could break into the rotation early as a potential scorer and sophomore center Jordan Morgan may be this year's breakout performer after showing flashes of greatness last year and giving the Wolverines size and strength up front. Michigan will get some big early tests in the Maui Invitational before playing at Virginia in the challenge. The Wolverines were just 9-9 in Big Ten play last season and will need to be more consistent but this is a program on the rise.
Michigan State
The Spartans were universally expected to be a top-ten caliber team last season, but the team failed in its biggest early season tests and then limped into the Big Ten season. Michigan State managed to get a few wins down the stretch to sneak into the NCAA tournament, but they were eliminated in the first round. Draymond Green is back for his senior season and he should be one of the better scorers in the conference as there are some big shoes to fill with Kalin Lucas gone. Valparaiso transfer Brandon Wood should expect to be a big part of the offense and there is a good crop of sophomores that could take on expanded roles this season. There is always elite talent entering this program and Coach Izzo has done more with less in past seasons. Michigan State will play North Carolina and Duke in early November, so the Spartans will have a chance to get back in the national spotlight and they will host Florida State in the challenge as well as playing Gonzaga in early December.
Illinois
After an up-and-down season, Illinois snuck into the NCAA tournament, getting a win before bowing out to Kansas. Illinois started out 13-3 last season, but suffered some upset losses in conference play and never quite lived up to expectations. Bruce Weber has a deep recruiting class this season that should bring a lot of new life to the program and this is a team that could lurk as a sleeper in the conference race, even with only one returning starter. This team will be short on experience but the size and talent available leaves a very high ceiling for this team, even if the peak may be a year away as there is just one senior on the squad. This should be a defensive-oriented team that is somewhat weak in perimeter shooting so there may be a few ugly outings, but don't rule out a few big upsets as well. There are some challenging early season games with Richmond, Maryland, Gonzaga, UNLV, and Missouri in non-conference play.
Northwestern
The Wildcats started out 8-0 last season and it was supposed to be the year that the program broke through with its first NCAA tournament appearance. However, it was a rough 0-3 start to the Big Ten season and finishing 7-11 in conference play even after a valiant effort versus Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament left Northwestern to the NIT, where they won two games. Four starters are back in action for this team and John Shurna will be one of the top scorers in the conference. Losing point guard Michael Thompson is a huge blow and the backcourt will be a weakness for this team. Northwestern will face a surprisingly difficult early season schedule, facing LSU, Georgia Tech, Baylor, and Creighton. This team may not get off to a great start, but a stronger Big Ten record may be possible as they will only face Wisconsin and Michigan State once.
Minnesota
The Gophers started out 11-1 and were highly ranked with a win over North Carolina under its belt, but they would lose its final six and 10 of the final 11 to miss the postseason entirely. The front court for the Gophers will be formidable with Trevor Mbakwe and Ralph Sampson, but the team was lost without guards Devoe Joseph and Al Nolen last season. Finding backcourt leaders will be a challenge as Minnesota has two freshmen that could step in to contribute with Joe Coleman and Andre Hollins as well as transfer Julian Welch. If Minnesota finds guards that can shoot and handle the ball, Minnesota can be a winning team as the defense and rebounding should be among the best in the conference. Minnesota should get off to a strong start as there are few overly challenging games early in the year, facing Virginia Tech at home in the challenge with DePaul and USC as the only other significant non-conference tests. The Gophers also luck out in the conference schedule facing Ohio State, Purdue, and Michigan just once each.
Nebraska
The move to the Big Ten for the Cornhuskers was about football only as the basketball team will find out in what could be a tough first year. This is a veteran team with good size and a defensive profile that should fit in with the league standard, but offensively lost its top scorer. LSU transfer Bo Spencer will have an opportunity to star and junior college transfer Dylan Talley could also make a name for himself. Nebraska was not a strong outside shooting team last year, something that can be critical in the Big Ten. Nebraska draws early season games with USC, Oregon, and Wake Forest, but overall the slate is not too challenging but they will face Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State twice each in conference play while also having to face schemes and styles they are not accustomed to in the transition season.
Indiana
It has been slow rebuilding process at Indiana for former Marquette coach Tom Crean as he enters his fourth season without much success. Indiana was competitive in many games last season, but ultimately went 3-15 in conference play including finishing the season on a 0-9 run. McDonald's All-American Cody Zeller is expected to step in to help the post-scoring and four returning starters should join him on the floor for a formidable starting five with solid scoring options. The defense has not been able to match the intensity required in this tough conference as there is decent depth on this squad. Indiana started 6-0 last season and 9-2 before the schedule stiffened and that early optimism may not occur this season with several marquee games, facing Butler, Kentucky, and Notre Dame in addition to the challenge match-up with NC State. Indiana only plays Ohio State and Wisconsin once each so an improved Big Ten record is likely, but will it may not be a big enough step forward to keep the faith in Crean and the direction of the program.
Iowa
The first season for Fran McCaffery at Iowa was not a rousing success with the Hawkeyes going 11-20 but his up-tempo style could eventually cause problems in the generally slower paced Big Ten. Iowa started 1-8 in Big Ten play, but showed some improvement late in the year, beating Michigan State and Purdue as well as taking Wisconsin to overtime. Four starters return this season as the defense needs to improve dramatically to compete more respectably as they allowed nearly 73 points per game last season. Iowa was also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten last year, and outside shooting was a staple of success for McCaffery at Siena. Iowa draws a very weak non-conference schedule with only Clemson in the challenge, and nearby rivalry game with Creighton, Northern Iowa, and Iowa State looming as difficult early season draws. The Big Ten schedule starts with a bang as they will be solid underdogs in each of the first seven conference games.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions made a great late season charge to make the NCAA tournament, but they exited early with a tough loss to Temple in the first round. Ed DeChellis surprised everyone by leaving the program to take over at Navy, and former Boston University coach Patrick Chambers now leads the team. Replacing Talor Battle will be a big challenge and defensive-minded point guard Tim Frazier is the lone returning starter. There is very little experience on this team so a couple of freshmen will likely get time early. Most of the incoming recruits are forwards and could be a bit raw so the Lions should likely tumble down the standings this season in what could be a rocky transition season. Kentucky, Boston College, St. Joseph's, Mississippi, and Duquesne will present early season hurdles before the Big Ten season.