Big 12 Snapshot
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Since Kansas won the NCAA Tournament in April 2008, the Big XII has only sent two teams to the Final Four in the eight tournaments since. This year, the Big XII looks loaded with eight of the conference’s ten teams in the mix to make the Big Dance and three teams possibly in the mix for #1 or #2 seeds. After upsets filled the weekend schedule in Big XII play, here is a look at the remaining contenders for tournament bids.
Favorite – Kansas (9-2 S/U, 2-8-1 ATS): The Jayhawks have won 12 consecutive Big XII titles to have a firm hold on the favorite status in the league, but note that four of the championships in that run were shared titles and that result is a real possibility this season. Kansas has turned in high profile non-conference wins over Duke and Kentucky as the Jayhawks are on a #1 seed track should they stay on top of the Big XII standings. Josh Jackson is one of the most impressive freshmen in the country and while senior guard Frank Mason is a player of the year candidate incredibly shooting 52 percent from 3-point range. Kansas has just a +4.4 scoring differential in Big XII play and with losses in two of the past four conference games with the wins coming by five and three points extending the title streak is not a given. In defensive efficiency, this is the worst Kansas team Bill Self has featured in now 14 seasons while also being one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation as the opportunity is there for the other contenders to reach the top.
Contender – Baylor (7-3 S/U, 4-6 ATS): The Bears delivered an incredibly impressive non-conference season picking up wins over Oregon, VCU, Michigan State, Louisville, and Xavier as they are a #1 seed contender even if they wind up a runner-up in the Big XII race. Back-to-back losses have soured a 7-1 start in league play, but they have already faced West Virginia and Kansas on the road and the toughest remaining games will be at home. Baylor is the Big XII’s top defensive team but the offense can have inconsistency with a high turnover rate and marginal outside shooting. Each of the last six Big XII wins have come by 10 or fewer points as the losing ATS mark in league play could continue for the Bears, but if they win the remaining home games and avoid upset risk games at Oklahoma State or at Iowa State, Baylor could find its way into the top spot in the conference standings.
Overachiever – West Virginia (6-4 S/U, 4-6 ATS): Most power ratings still call West Virginia a top-10 caliber team with the big victory at Virginia in non-conference play carrying a lot of weight. The Mountaineers have lost two overtime games in Big XII play, but it is hard to envision the team winning out to claim the conference title. Road games vs. Kansas and Baylor remain on the schedule and West Virginia has lost twice at home in conference play including falling against an Oklahoma squad at the bottom of the standings. With its propensity to create turnovers, West Virginia is capable of delivering high end performances, but poor free throw shooting and a torrid pace of play makes the Mountaineers more at risk for upsets as well. West Virginia’s overall schedule is rated as the second-weakest among Big XII teams and it seems more likely that the Mountaineers fall back to the pack than rise up to the top of the Big XII in the remaining weeks.
Sleeper – Iowa State (6-4 S/U, 6-4 ATS): Iowa State just handed Kansas its first Big XII home loss in more than four years and while the Cyclones remain a only a bit ahead of the NCAA Tournament bubble due to an unimpressive non-conference season, they could become a realistic player in the Big XII race. They have both Kansas games out of the way and will play Baylor again at home, while the road game at West Virginia is in the final conference game of the season that may not be critically important for the Mountaineers. While winning out looks unlikely, the remaining schedule is reasonable and a strong run to finish 12-6 or 11-5 isn’t unrealistic for this squad. As one of the most experienced teams in the nation, Iowa State has one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation and the Cyclones have had their outside shooting heat up in recent games, hitting nearly 40 percent in Big XII play. Iowa State has been a little lucky with two overtime wins in conference play, but if there is a long shot candidate to possibly take home a share of the conference title, the Cyclones fit the bill.
Enigma – Oklahoma State (4-6 S/U, 6-4 ATS): After starting Big XII play 0-6, Oklahoma State has won the past four games in conference play plus a non-conference win over Arkansas. Despite the 5-6 record, Oklahoma State has outscored its opponents by 20 points over the last 11 games and last weekend’s win at West Virginia legitimized the return to relevancy in the conference picture for the Cowboys. The toughest remaining games are at home with this week’s game vs. Baylor and the finale vs. Kansas and Oklahoma State won’t be more than a slight underdog in the six games in between as getting back to .500 or higher in league play is a possibility. Oklahoma State lives by the 3-point shot with its up-tempo pace and in conference play, the Cowboys have hit over 42 percent from beyond the arc. This is the least efficient defense in the Big XII and the offense can struggle with turnovers at times despite the great backcourt. This is a still rather young team, but a team on the rise that has learned from a number of tight losses vs. quality teams to emerge as a threat in any remaining matchup though a few puzzling losses down the stretch won’t be a surprise either.
Long Shot – Kansas State (5-6 S/U, 5-4-2 ATS): The 11-2 non-conference mark featured zero top 100 wins for Kansas State as they are certainly just barely ahead of the cut line for the NCAA Tournament right now. Kansas State looks the part on the court and while there are not a lot of high quality wins the past three Big XII wins came at Oklahoma State, at home vs. West Virginia, and at Baylor for a trio of very high caliber quality wins. Narrow non-conference losses to Maryland and Tennessee don’t look too damaging and every Big XII loss has come by nine or fewer points including three losses by three or fewer points plus another overtime result. After the upcoming trip to Morgantown, the toughest road games are out of the way as this looks like a team that could close the year with some momentum to finish with a winning record to sit in the upper half of the Big XII. Along with West Virginia, Kansas State is the only other team in the top five of the Big XII in offensive and defensive efficiency and while a lot would have to go right for the Wildcats to climb back into Big XII contention, they are likely a play-on team coming out of the current 1-4 run the past five games.
Bubble Team – TCU (5-5 S/U, 6-4 ATS): In his first season in Fort Worth, Jamie Dixon has the Horned Frogs already by last season’s win count and in contention for the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 1998. TCU is on fragile ground as the non-conference resume is providing little help and three of the five Big XII wins have come against the bottom two teams in the standings. The remaining schedule is very difficult with road games in Waco, Ames, and Lawrence as well as home games vs. West Virginia and two other potential Big XII bubble teams in Texas Tech and Kansas State. A .500 finish in a highly regarded Big XII would probably be enough to get serious consideration, but the Frogs could really use a major win vs. one of the top teams. They’ll have plenty of upcoming chances, but a team that for the most part looks middle-of-the-pack or worse in most conference measures is also in danger of suffering a rocky run to close out February that could sink a promising season.
Sinker – Texas Tech (4-6 S/U, 4-6 ATS): Texas Tech made the NCAA Tournament last season, but Tubby Smith left to take over at Memphis. Chris Beard was hired after just one successful season at Arkansas-Little Rock and the Red Raiders have held their own so far. They have faced the weakest schedule of any Big XII team as the 12-1 non-conference record features a loss to the only top 100 team they faced while all the heavyweights are coming up on the late February Big XII schedule. Texas Tech’s four conference wins have come by 1, 1, 6, and 8 points with the Red Raiders 0-5 on the road. In conference play, the Red Raiders rate in the bottom four in both offensive and defensive efficiency and despite great experience, coming up with enough quality wins to keep the Red Raiders in the NCAA Tournament mix looks unlikely. With losses to Oklahoma and Texas already included in the 4-6 league mark, things look likely to only get worse for this team.