Big Dance Entrants
By Joe Nelson
Gonzaga and St. Mary's tied at 11-3 on top of the West Coast Conference standings and fittingly the teams met in the conference tournament final in Las Vegas. Gonzaga pulled away for a 75-63 win to earn the automatic berth to the NCAA tournament but most projections have St. Mary's in the tournament as well barring a big shrinking of the bubble this week. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's won NCAA tournament games last season so these are teams to keep an eye on. Here is a look at the two postseason representatives from the WCC and a look ahead to the NCAA tournament.
Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA tournament for a 13th straight appearance even though this season has fallen short of the recent expectations brought to this program. As usual Gonzaga played a high quality non-conference schedule but most of the opportunities for marquee wins were missed, losing to San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, Notre Dame, and Memphis. Wins over Marquette, Baylor, and Oklahoma State did not pan out to be as strong as they once looked but the Bulldogs also won against Xavier. Gonzaga lost just three games in conference play and amazingly they came consecutive games in late January losing at Santa Clara and then in overtime two days later at San Francisco. St. Mary's then beat Gonzaga in Spokane before the Bulldogs returned the favor late in the regular season and then won the conference tournament final.
Sophomore Elias Harris took a step back this season with a big drop in his scoring and rebounding numbers after a sensational freshmen year which led him to being considered an All American candidate before the season started. Harris had a good season but really did not emerge as an elite player and Gonzaga was not as strong of a team as most expected, even though the team fell just short of last season's 27-7 record. Gonzaga has great size for any program, let alone a smaller conference team as Harris is an imposing forward at 6'7", 245 and the Bulldogs are also led in the front court by 7'0" Robert Sacre and the bench also has plenty of contributors in the post. The guards for Gonzaga are also big led by All Conference senior guard Steven Gray who led Gonzaga with nearly 14 points per game. Junior college transfer Marquise Carter also has emerged as a key player for Gonzaga in the back court, with his scoring average over the last ten games nearly double his season average. Freshman David Stockton (Yes, John's son) also has emerged as a quality ball handler with a big jump in minutes late in the year.
Gonzaga entered last season's tournament after a blowout loss to St. Mary's in the conference tournament final but Gonzaga beat Florida State in the opening round as a #8 seed in a game that was rarely as close as the final score. In the next round top seed Syracuse dominated Gonzaga en route to an 87-65 loss to end the season for the Bulldogs. This year the prospects are similar, Gonzaga is likely projected to be seeded in an 8/9 match-up again and while this is a team that is a threat to win its first game, match-up with a #1 seed in the second round is not likely to be favorable. Gonzaga will also get no consideration for location with that seeding and there is no location that won’t require significant travel with the best case scenarios being 1,095 miles to Denver or 1,487 miles to Tucson. With a dearth of quality teams on the west coast this year it is unlikely that Gonzaga gets one of those draws unless they are moved to a 7/10 game as none of the potential #1 seeds figures to be placed in a western pod for the first two games. Gonzaga enters the tournament having won nine consecutive games but this does not look like a team that is prepared for a deep tournament run, especially given the most likely scenarios of where Gonzaga will be in the bracket. That said, this is a team that has the physical size and talent to compete with just about any team in the nation and this is a program that seems to fare better in the tournament when less is expected.
St. Mary's: The regular season is not actually over for St. Mary’s as they have scheduled a game with Weber State for Friday this week, looking to get in another division I win on the resume. It is a bit of an odd decision as the game really can only hurt the at-large bid candidacy of the team. Weber State is a decent team from the Big Sky but playing a tight game of getting upset could be enough to push St. Mary's on the edge of the bubble should there be some upsets in the upcoming conference tournaments. Even though St. Mary's has lost four of the last six games it has still been a strong year for the Gaels and after being one of the darlings of the tournament last season making it to the Sweet 16, St. Mary's could be poised for another strong showing. Unlike Gonzaga, St. Mary's played a rather weak non-conference schedule although an early season win over St. John's has started to pay some dividends. St. Mary's lost by one to BYU and lost by 14 at San Diego State as the Mountain West can win most of the arguments between these two leagues this season. The only other non-conference loss for St. Mary's came at Vanderbilt by 19. There really were not any other quality wins however with wins over Long Beach State, Texas Tech, Mississippi State, and at New Mexico State standing out as the only decent victories.
St. Mary's is much less physically imposing than Gonzaga but the Gaels get great production from their guards. Senior Mickey McConnell was WCC player of the year averaging 16.8 points per game. McConnell is just 6'0" but he hit nearly 47 percent from 3-point range and is also a 90 percent free throw shooter. McConnell can also surprise you with his quickness and his ability to get to the rim. Australian sophomore Matthew Dellavedova looks like he would be just as comfortable on a rugby pitch as on a basketball court but he emerged as a star in the tournament last year with a couple of big shots. St. Mary's is of course without 6'11" Omar Samhan this season who was a beast in the tournament last season with 61 points in the first two games before the ugly loss to Baylor in the Sweet 16. Rob Jones is the leading post scorer for the Gaels but he is undersized for a forward and while St. Mary's has three 6'9" players in the rotation only sophomore reserve Mitchell Young can be counted on as a consistent scorer. Depending on the match-up St. Mary's could struggle against a bigger more physical team but the Gaels can be a streaky hot shooting team and the guard play should be a strong point for the team.
Most projections have St. Mary's as a #10 seed, comfortably in the tournament at this point. Assuming there is not a hiccup against Weber State or a slew of upsets in conference tournaments to steal bids, the Gaels should again make the bracket but it could be in a difficult draw. Last season St. Mary's also had a #10 seed in the upset over Richmond and also got to face the clear weak link among the #2 seeds Villanova. The great tournament run came in Providence and the Gaels could likely face long travel again for the tournament this year. As a #10 or #11 seed St. Mary's likely would get a more favorable location then as a #9 seed as BYU and San Diego State will likely be #2 or #3 seeds and command one of the western locations for a pod that St. Mary's could be placed in. That said there will be no great venue for St. Mary's with significant distance to any opening weekend venue. St. Mary's will be at risk to fall to one of the #11 seeds in a possible 'First Four' game in Dayton Tuesday or Wednesday however which could add to the travel difficulty, although travel is supposed be a consideration for the teams selected in those spots. In all this is a decent team with great scoring potential in the backcourt but a similar tournament run to last season is pretty unlikely as a lot of things fell together last year.