Big Dance preview
The Gold Sheet
Throughout the years, many users have asked what our favorite time of the year is at THE GOLD SHEET. Truth be told, we like every month of the season, but we have to admit to a special thrill whenever it comes to preparing for "The Big Dance." Like clockwork, our collective pulses start to quicken each February in anticipation of ever-looming NCAA Tournament. When the calendar turns to March, it might as well be Christmas all over again at our offices. And we are having an absolute ball playing "bracketologist" this winter, scoping out a projected NCAA field each week, an updated version of which appears every Wednesday on our adjacent web pages.
So, it's no surprise that we're getting excited again, as we at TGS are again fast approaching our favorite time of the year. Indeed, from this point forward, "March Mayhem" will become the major talking point of the college basketball campaign. And the postseason is approaching quicker than you might imagine, as, believe it or not, we'll be starting our conference tournament previews shortly.
After surveying the college hoop scene for several years, we have also long believed a mid-February look at squads vying for potential NCAA invitations to be a very worthwhile exercise. Knowing where teams might (or might not) fit into the postseason equation can be especially useful handicapping information this time of the year. The NCAA prospects of many teams (especially those on the proverbial "Bubble") will be decided in the next few weeks, adding an extra factor to be considered when forecasting their upcoming games. Beyond the aforementioned "Bubble" teams that need every win to stay in the good graces of the NCAA Tourney Committee, it's also worth paying attention to the squads with "Big Dance" bids securely in hand. Those teams might not all approach the final weeks of the regular season (or conference tourneys) in the same manner, some seeking to develop extra depth and avoid key injuries, others emphasizing a strong drive through the regular-season tape and hopefully carrying that momentum into the postseason.
And there's an added piece to the postseason puzzle this season, with the new Collegeinsider.com Tourney joining last year's new addition, the CBI (College Basketball Invitational), in addition to the venerable NIT, which is still going strong. With 32 teams in the NIT, plus 16 in both the CollegeInsider.com and CBI, that's another 64 teams participating in postseason action on top of the 65 who will compete in the Big Dance!
We'll keep tabs on potential NIT, CBI, and CollegeInsider.com entries in coming weeks. For now, however, we take a late-February look at the major "board" conferences and their chances of sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament. We are our own "Bracketologists" at TGS and have divided the teams into three categories-Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble. Solid is self-explanatory. Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don't slump badly in the next few weeks. Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tourney Committee, and desperately need every win to keep their Big Dance hopes alive. And, remember, for our latest TGS NCAA Tourney projections, check out VegasInsider.com this Wednesday for our latest "Bracketology" update.
Keep in mind that nearly every Division I team can qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. With the Big Ten finally relenting earlier this decade, and the Pac-Ten re-instituting its tourney in 2002 after a 12-year hiatus, the Ivy League remains the lone conference tourney holdout-and even the Ivies are now talking about conducting their own postseason shindig in the near future! Stay tuned for further developments. In the meantime, as always, the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance.
Also included below are conference tourney sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 22); and last year's postseason participants in the NCAA, NIT, and CBI.
ACC
Solid...North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson.
Looking Good...Florida State.
Bubble...Boston College, Miami-Florida, Maryland, Virginia Tech.
Conference Power Rating-1st.
Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA.
Last year...NCAA-4 (North Carolina-Final Four, Duke-2nd round, Miami-2nd round, Clemson); NIT-3 (Virginia Tech-Quarterfinals, Maryland-2nd round, Florida State); CBI-1 (Virginia-Quarterfinals).
ATLANTIC TEN
Solid...Xavier.
Looking Good...Dayton.
Bubble...Temple & Rhode Island.
Conference-8th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ.
Last year...NCAA-3 (Xavier-Elite 8, Saint Joseph's, Temple); NIT-4 (UMass-2nd place, Dayton-Quarterfinals, Charlotte, Rhode Island).
BIG EAST
Solid...Pitt, UConn, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova.
Looking Good...West Virginia & Syracuse.
Bubble...Providence, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown.
Conference-3rd.
Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY.
Last year...NCAA-8 (Louisville-Elite 8, West Virginia-Sweet 16, Villanova-Sweet 16, Georgetown-2nd round, Pitt-2nd round, Notre Dame-2nd round, Marquette-2nd round, UConn); NIT-1 (Syracuse-Quarterfinals); CBI-1 (Cincinnati).
BIG TEN
Solid...Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois.
Looking Good...Ohio State & Wisconsin.
Bubble...Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan.
Conference-2nd.
Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN.
Last year...NCAA-4 (Wisconsin-Sweet 16, Michigan State-Sweet 16, Purdue-2nd round, Indiana); NIT-2 (Ohio State-Champs, Minnesota).
BIG XII
Solid...Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas.
Looking Good...Texas & Kansas State.
Bubble...Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M.
Conference-5th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14, Ford Center, Oklahoma City, OK.
Last year...NCAA-6 (Kansas-Champ, Texas-Elite 8, Oklahoma-2nd round, Kansas State-2nd round, Texas A&M-2nd round, Baylor), NIT-2 (Nebraska-2nd round, Oklahoma State).
BIG WEST
Conference tourney champ will be only NCAA rep.
Conference-16th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Anaheim Convention Center, Anaheim, CA.
Last year...NCAA-1 (CS Fullerton).
COLONIAL
Bubble...Northeastern.
Conference-14th.
Notes...Tourney March 6-9 at Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA.
Last year...NCAA-1 (George Mason); NIT-1 (Virginia Commonwealth); CBI-1 (Old Dominion).
C-USA
Solid...Memphis.
Bubble...Houston, UAB, Tulsa.
Conference-9th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Memphis-2nd place); NIT-1 (UAB-2nd round); CBI-3 (Tulsa-Champs, Houston-Semifinals, UTEP).
HORIZON
Solid...Butler.
Bubble...UW-Green Bay.
Conference-11th.
Notes...Tourney March 3 at campus sites (first round); quarters and semis March 6-7 at home of number one seed, likely Butler's Hinkle Fieldhouse. Final March 10 at home of highest-remaining seed.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Butler-2nd round); NIT-1 (Cleveland State); CBI-1 Valparaiso (2nd round).
MAC
Conference tourney champ will be only NCAA rep.
Conference-17th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Kent State); NIT-1 (Akron-2nd round); CBI-2 (Ohio-2nd round, Miami-Ohio).
MISSOURI VALLEY
Bubble...Creighton, Northern Iowa, Illinois State.
Conference-10th.
Notes...Tourney ("Arch Madness") March 5-8 at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Drake); NIT-3 (Creighton-2nd round, Southern Illinois-2nd round, Illinois State-2nd round); CBI-1 (Bradley-2nd place).
MOUNTAIN WEST
Looking Good...Utah.
Bubble...UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State.
Conference-7th.
Notes...Tourney March 10-14 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV.
Last year...NCAA-2 (UNLV-2nd round, BYU); NIT-2 (New Mexico, San Diego State); CBI-1 (Utah-2nd round).
PAC 10
Solid...Arizona State, UCLA, Washington.
Looking Good...Arizona & Cal.
Bubble...Southern Cal.
Conference-4th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA.
Last year...NCAA-6 (UCLA-Final Four, Washington State-Sweet 16, Stanford-Sweet 16, Arizona, Oregon, Southern Cal); NIT-2 (Arizona State-Quarterfinals, Cal-2nd round); CBI-1 (Washington).
SEC
Solid...LSU.
Looking Good...Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky.
Bubble...Mississippi State, Tennessee, Auburn.
Conference-6th.
Notes...Tourney March 12-15 at St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa, FL.
Last year...NCAA-6 (Tennessee-Sweet 16, Arkansas-2nd round, Mississippi State-2nd round, Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt); NIT-2 (Florida-Semifinals, Ole Miss-Semifinals).
SUN BELT
Bubble...Western Kentucky.
Conference-19th.
Notes...Tourney March 4 at campus sites (first round); then March 8-10 at Summit Arena, Hot Springs, AR).
Last year...NCAA-2 (Western Kentucky-Sweet 16, South Alabama).
WEST COAST
Solid...Gonzaga.
Bubble...Saint Mary's.
Conference-13th.
Notes...Tourney March 6-9 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Last year...NCAA-3 (San Diego-2nd round, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's).
WAC
Looking Good...Utah State.
Conference-12th.
Notes...Tourney March 10-14, Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Boise State); NIT-1 (Utah State); CBI-1 (Nevada).