Big Dance Update
By Bruce Marshall
Sometimes, our readers often wonder what we do at The Gold Sheet once the football campaign concludes. But we've never had any post-Super Bowl "blues" at TGS, because in truth, that's when the real fun begins. Like clockwork, our collective pulses begin to race quicken each February in anticipation of ever-looming NCAA Tournament. The anticipation for the upcoming NCAA Tournament might be the highlight of our year, and we have found it easy to get into the postseason spirit the past few seasons by offering our own Bracketology Update each week.
So, it's no surprise that we're getting excited again, with "March Mayhem" now the major talking point for the rest of the college basketball campaign. And the postseason is approaching quicker than you might imagine, as, believe it or not, we'll be starting our conference tournament previews shortly. Indeed, we're less than three weeks from Selection Sunday!
Whatever, we have long believed a mid-to-late February look at college hoop squads vying for potential NCAA invitations to be a worthwhile exercise. Knowing where teams might (or might not) fit into the postseason equation can be especially useful handicapping information this time of the year. The NCAA prospects of many teams (especially those on the proverbial "bubble") will be decided in the next few weeks, adding an extra factor to be considered when forecasting their upcoming games. Beyond the aforementioned "bubble" teams that need every win to stay in the good graces of the NCAA Tourney Committee, it's also worth paying attention to the squads with "Big Dance" bids securely in hand. Those squads might not all approach the final weeks of the regular season (or conference tourneys) in the same manner, some seeking to develop extra depth and avoid key injuries, others emphasizing a strong drive through the regular-season tape and hopefully carry that momentum into the postseason.
And there are now other pieces to the postseason puzzle, with the Collegeinsider.com Tourney and Last year's new addition, the CBI (College Basketball Invitational), joining the venerable NIT in alternative postseason events to the Big Dance. With 32 teams in the NIT, plus 16 in both the CollegeInsider.com and CBI, that's another 64 teams participating in postseason action on top of the 65 who will compete in the Big Dance!
(An interesting twist this season is that the College Insider Tourney will invite the winner of the Great West Conference, a dispalced collection of semi-independent D-I entries consisting of Chicago State, Houston Baptist, NJIT, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas-Pan American, and Utah Valley State. Who said the college hoops postseason is becoming too bloated, anyway?)
We'll keep tabs on potential NIT, CBI, and CollegeInsider.com entries in coming weeks. For now, however, we take a late-February look at the major "board" conferences and their chances of sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament. Now that we are our own "Bracketologists" at TGS, we've divided the teams into three categories - Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble. Solid is self-explanatory. Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don't slump badly in the next few weeks. Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tourney Committee, and desperately need every win to keep their Big Dance hopes alive.
Keep in mind that nearly every Division I team (even Marist and Alcorn State, a combined 2-52 between them!) can qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. With the Big Ten finally relenting earlier this decade, and the Pac-Ten re-instituting its tourney in 2002 after a 12-year hiatus, the Ivy League remains the lone conference tourney holdout. In the meantime, as always, the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance. Also included below are conference tourney sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 21); and Last year's postseason participants in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT.
ACC
Solid...Duke.
Looking Good...Maryland, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech.
Bubble...Florida State, Georgia Tech. Conference Power Rating-3rd.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Greesnboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC.
Last year...NCAA-7 (North Carolina-Champion, Duke-Sweet 16, Maryland-2nd round, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest); NIT-2 (Miami Florida-2nd round, Virginia Tech-2nd round).
ATLANTIC 10
Solid...Temple.
Looking Good...Richmond, Xavier.
Bubble...Rhode Island, Dayton, Saint Louis, Charlotte. Conference-6th.
Notes...Tourney first round March 9 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and final March 12-14 at Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ.
Last year...NCAA-3 (Xavier-Sweet 16, Dayton-2nd round, Temple); NIT-2 (Rhode Island-2nd round, Duquesne); CBI-1 (Richmond, semifinals).
BIG EAST
Solid...Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pitt, Georgetown.
Looking GoodLouisville.
Bubble...Marquette, UConn, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, South Florida. Conference-2nd.
Notes...Tourney March 9-13 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY.
Last year...NCAA-7 (UConn-Final Four, Villanova-Final Four, Louisville-Elite 8, Pittsburgh-Elite 8, Syracuse-Sweet 16, Marquette-2nd round, West Virginia); NIT-3 (Notre Dame-semifinals, Providence, Georgetwon); CBI-1 (St. John's).
BIG 10
Solid...Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin.
Bubble...Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern. Conference-5th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN.
Last year...NCAA-7 (Michigan State-2nd place, Purdue-Sweet 16, Wisconsin-2nd round, Michigan-2nd round, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State); NIT-2 (Penn State-Champs, Northwestern).
BIG 12
Solid...Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Baylor.
Looking Good...Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri.
Bubble...Texas Tech. Conference-1st.
Notes...Tourney March 10-13 at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO.
Last year...NCAA-6 (Missouri-Elite 8, Oklahoma-Elite 8, Kansas-Sweet 16, Oklahoma State-2nd round, Texas-2nd round, Texas A&M-2nd round); NIT-3 (Baylor-runner up, Kansas State-2nd round, Nebraska).
BIG WEST
Conference tourney champ will be only NCAA rep. Conference-19th.
Notes...Tourney March 10-13 at Anaheim Convention Center, Anaheim, CA.
Last year...NCAA-1 (CS Northride); CIT-1 (Pacific-semifinals).
COLONIAL
Looking Good...Old Dominion.
Bubble...William & Mary, Virginia Commonwealth, Northeastern. Conference-12th.
Notes...Tourney March 5-8 at Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Virginia Commonwealth); NIT-1 (George Mason); CBI-1 (Northeastern-quarterfinals); CIT-2 (Old Dominion-Champs, James Madison-semifinals).
CONFERENCE USA
Looking Good...UAB.
Bubble...UTEP, Memphis, Tulsa, Marshall. Conference-11th.
Notes...Tourney March 10-13 at Bank of America Center, Tulsa, OK.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Memphis-Sweet 16); NIT-2 (Tulsa-2nd round, UAB); CBI-2 (UTEP-2nd place, Houston).
HORIZON
Solid...Butler. Conference-14th.
Notes...Tourney March 3 at campus sites (first round); quarters and semis March 6-7 at home of number one seed, Butler's Hinkle Fieldhouse. Final March 10 at home of highest-remaining seed.
Last year...NCAA-2 (Cleveland State-2nd round, Butler); CBI-1 (UW-Green Bay).
MAC
Conference tourney champ will be only NCAA rep. Conference-17th.
Notes...Tourney March 7 at campus sites (first round); quarters, semis, and final March 11-13 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Akron); NIT-1 (Bowling Green).
MISSOURI VALLEY
Solid...Northern Iowa.
Bubble...Wichita State. Conference-9th.
Notes...Tourney ("Arch Madness") March 4-87at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Northern Iowa); NIT-2 (Creighton-2nd round, Illinois State); CBI-1 (Wichita State-2nd round); CIT-3 (Bradley-2nd place, Drake, Evansville).
MOUNTAIN WEST
Solid...New Mexico, BYU.
Bubble...UNLV, San Diego State. Conference-7th.
Notes...Tourney March 10-13 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV.
Last year...NCAA-2 (Utah, BYU); NIT-3 (San Diego State-semifinals, New Mexico-2nd round, UNLV); CBI-1 (Wyoming).
PAC 10
Bubble...Cal, Arizona State, Washington. Conference-8th.
Notes...Tourney March 10-13 at Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA.
Last year...NCAA-6 (Arizona-Sweet 16, Arizona State-2nd round, UCLA-2nd round, Southern Cal-2nd round, Washington-2nd round, Cal); NIT-1 (Washington State); CBI-2 (Oregon State-champs, Stanford-semifinals).
SEC
Solid...Kentucky, Vanderbilt Tennessee.
Bubble...Mississippi State, Florida, Ole Miss. Conference-4th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-14 at Sommet Center (home of NHL's Nashville Predators), Nashville, TN.
Last year...NCAA-3 (LSU-2nd round, Mississippi State, Tennessee); NIT-4 (Auburn-quarterfnals, Florida-quarterfinals, Kentucky-quarterfinals, South Carolina).
SUN BELT
Conference tourney champ will be only NCAA rep. Conference-22nd.
Notes...Tourney March 6-9 at Summit Arena, Hot Springs, AR.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Western Kentucky-2nd round); CBI-1 (Troy). .
WEST COAST
Solid...Gonzaga.
Bubble...Saint Mary's. Conference-13th.
Notes...Tourney March 5-8 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Gonzaga-Sweet 16); NIT-1 (Saint Mary's-quarterfinals); CIT-1 (Potland).
WAC
Looking Good...Utah State. Bubble..Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State. Conference-10th.
Notes...Tourney March 11-13 at Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV.
Last year...NCAA-1 (Utah State); CBI-2 (Boise State, Nevada); CIT-1 (Idaho-2nd round).