Big East Conference betting update
By: Willie Bee
Big East basketball has been dominating the rankings since the season's outset, with nine of the conference's 16 teams part of the most recent AP poll and seven occupying slots on the coaches list. Those numbers will diminish now that the schools begin to beat up on each other.
What college hoops bettors want to know is how conference play might affect NCAA Tournament seeding which will play a huge roll in the success and failure of their futures wagers.
The latest numbers from Bodog.com show Duke still at the top of the NCAA board at 2/1. The Blue Devils are followed by Ohio State and Kansas with 9/2 and 7/1 odds respectively. Syracuse is 10/1, the top Big East school on the list.
The season opened with Pittsburgh and Villanova co-favorites to win the Big East at 5/2. Pitt's win over Syracuse earlier this week make the Panthers at the top of the conference standings with a 6-0 record. The Orange follow at 5-1 and face another crucial contest this Saturday when they host 4-1 'Nova.
Syracuse heads into the weekend with a 17-1 overall mark, but just 7-10 against the spread. Syracuse's 10/1 NCAA futures odds are trailed by Pitt (12/1) and Villanova (18/1) among Big East teams. Connecticut is 25/1, offering a slightly better return than Bodog's 22/1 on the field.
Villanova's futures haven't changed since late-October when the Wildcats were 18/1 to win it all. Pittsburgh was 20/1 at that time with Syracuse 30/1.
Jim Boeheim's lads won't get a chance to avenge their defeat to Pittsburgh unless the two rivals meet in the Big East Tournament, slated for March 8-12 at Madison Square Garden. Before 'Cuse can even think about that, there are two matchups with 'Nova, two with Georgetown plus one each with UConn and Louisville. And those are just the conference contests against teams currently ranked.
To think that any team will run the table in the conference is pretty far-fetched, but the Panthers remain the only team with a shot. Pitt (18-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) has a home-&-home with Villanova still to come, plus a home date with Notre Dame and road trip to Louisville. The other two possible stumbling spots are away games at West Virginia and St. John's.
Villanova (16-2 SU, 10-5 ATS), though third behind Pitt and 'Cuse currently, remains in control of its own destiny. The Wildcats have two games against both the Panthers and Orange, the first of that quartet at Syracuse this weekend. If you haven't done so already, circle March 5 on your calendar. Villanova closes the regular season at Pittsburgh that day, a game that could easily decide the top seed for the conference tourney and the leading candidate for a No. 1 seed in March Madness.
While the Pitt-'Cuse-'Nova trio leads the way right now, another threesome will definitely play a role in the outcome.
Louisville (15-3 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) has sort of sneaked its way into the mix after opening the season unranked. The Cardinals were listed behind teams such as Murray State and New Mexico in the preseason tabulation for the ESPN/USA Today poll, and well behind their conference rivals from West Virginia who were 28th on that initial list. Oddsmakers weren't fooled, however, listing Louisville at 20/1 then to win the NCAA Championship with the Mountaineers 60/1.
Cardinals futures odds have since risen to 50/1 despite moving well up in the rankings. Louisville still has matchups on the calendar with UConn (twice), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Pittsburgh.
Notre Dame (15-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) already has three conference losses, all on the road, and faces six more away battles among its final 11 regular season games. One of those road tilts is next week at Pitt with another at UConn on the final Saturday of the season. There are also home games with Louisville and Villanova.
The Irish, presently 60/1 to win the NCAA crown, will be hard-pressed to go 8-3 from here on out; anything less and they are looking at entering the Big East Tournament with an 8-9 seed.
Connecticut (15-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) ventures outside the conference for this Saturday's clash in Hartford with the Tennessee Volunteers. The Huskies final 12 Big East games are split 6-6 home and away. The good news there is only one of those road games is against a ranked team, Feb. 18 at Louisville. The rest of the tough matchups are at home with games against Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown and Notre Dame.
If UConn can defend its own floor perfectly the rest of the way, this could easily be a three-loss team entering the conference tournament. With a star like Kemba Walker on their side, that could make the Huskies a very, very dangerous team at Madison Square Garden and points elsewhere in March.