Big East Snapshot
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Injuries to a pair of key players have limited the overall season potential of a Big East conference that grabbed a lot of early season headlines. The conference still has last season’s national champions leading the way and eight teams are still in the conversation to make the NCAA Tournament.
Here is a look at relevant contenders in the Big East with many big games ahead in the next two weeks.
Favorite – Villanova (12-2 S/U, 6-8 ATS): After starting the season 14-0 the defending national champions have taken two losses in Big East play but they have a comfortable cushion in the standings with only four games to go. The remaining four games are all of a difficult variety with road games vs. a pair of NCAA Tournament bubble teams with Seton Hall and Georgetown seeking a marquee win as well as road games vs. Butler and Creighton as it would be perhaps a surprise if the Wildcats don’t suffer at least one more setback before opening the conference tournament as the top seed, after failing to win that tournament title last season.
There isn’t much depth on this year’s team but Josh Hart remains one of the nation’s top all around players while Final Four hero Kris Jenkins has delivered a solid senior season. Jalen Brunson has made a big leap as a sophomore as has Donte DiVincenzo. This year’s team isn’t quite as strong defensively as last year’s championship team but they are actually an even stronger shooting team and a squad with a realistic shot at a repeat Final Four run.
Contender – Creighton (8-4 S/U, 8-4 ATS): The Blue Jays lost their first two games without senior point guard Maurice Watson but with wins in three of four games since Creighton remains a long shot threat to win out and catch Villanova if the Wildcats stumble. Getting to play Villanova is a big part of keeping that door open and the rest of the schedule provides a reasonable opportunity for Creighton to win out to reach 14-4 in league play even if the probability of that type of run is very low.
Three of four Creighton losses this season have come at home surprisingly as they have notable road wins in league play vs. Butler and Xavier and they won’t have to play either of those teams again until possibly in the Big East tournament. Xavier’s remaining path looks much tougher in comparing the two second place teams in the league and a strong finish could push the Blue Jays to a top four seed line in the Big Dance although the perfect non-conference season hasn’t held up that well outside of a win over Wisconsin.
Overachiever – Xavier (8-4 S/U, 5-7 ATS): The Musketeers have already surpassed last season’s loss count when Xavier earned a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament only to fail to survive the first weekend. This year’s team picked up some meaningful non-conference wins beating Clemson, Utah, and Wake Forest but only a road win vs. Creighton stands out in Big East play. Xavier was blown out in both meetings with Villanova and the remaining schedule features four road games plus home dates with Butler and Marquette as multiple losses look possible the rest of the way and the Musketeers aren’t that far from falling onto the NCAA Tournament bubble having gone 1-6 vs. AP Top 25 teams this season.
This year’s team has far worse offensive and particularly defensive efficiency numbers compared with last season’s squad and while the Musketeers won their first three games after the injury to Edmond Sumner, his loss is likely to show up more prominently in the final weeks. Five of Xavier’s eight Big East wins have come by five or fewer points as this squad could easily be a few spots lower in the standings. Three straight tough road games in succession are ahead for Xavier with the team potentially heading in the wrong direction entering March.
Sleeper – Butler (8-5 S/U, 7-6 ATS): Butler is in great shape to make the NCAA Tournament with quality wins over Arizona, Northwestern, Utah, Indiana, and Vanderbilt in non-conference action. Big East play has featured checkered results with a high end win hosting Villanova but also a loss to St. John’s and last weekend’s loss to Providence as well as a pair of home defeats. Butler has snuck out two overtime wins this season but every loss has been in a competitive game and the Bulldogs will certainly be a threat to win a few games in March as a national sleeper out of the Big East.
Butler gets road shots vs. Villanova and Xavier in late February and while the Bulldogs aren’t a realistic threat to catch the Wildcats on top of the Big East, they are a threat to move up into the top three in the standings and with a decent Big East Tournament run Butler remain a top four seed in the Big Dance picture, as they were listed in the Selection Committee rankings last week. Butler has faced one of the toughest schedules of any Big East team and while the statistics don’t paint the Bulldogs as amazing in any area, they are above average almost completely across the board.
Bubble Team – Marquette (6-7 S/U, 6-7 ATS): Right now most project Marquette as one of the very last teams to make the NCAA Tournament and a candidate to head to Dayton for a First Four game. After not making the NCAA Tournament since the Elite Eight run in 2013 that would be a good result for a young team that lacks size in Steve Wojciechowski’s third season in Milwaukee. Marquette’s comeback home win over Villanova is pulling a lot of weight and the Golden Eagles should pull for the Wildcats to keep winning for that win to look as strong as possible by season’s end. Marquette has wins over Georgetown, Seton Hall, and Creighton but also losses to two of those squads while taking back-to-back defeats to Providence and St. John’s following the big Villanova win in the stretch of the season that will be to blame if Marquette misses the Big Dance.
The bad news for Marquette is that they still play Xavier twice while games at Providence and hosting Creighton are certainly difficult remaining tests. Getting to .500 in league play by the end of the season would probably be enough for Marquette to feel good about its postseason chances but losing any of the remaining games is possible featuring some of the worst defensive numbers in the Big East. Marquette is currently the nation’s top 3-point shooting team while also excelling at the line as the up-tempo squad will be a difficult matchup for many teams but they have work to do solidify a NCAA Tournament berth with a weaker RPI than expected thanks to a handful of wins vs. teams outside the top 300 padding the numbers and non-conference losses to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pittsburgh not looking quite as noble as expected.
Enigma – Georgetown (5-8 S/U, 5-8 ATS): Early season wins over Oregon and Syracuse away from home are big pluses on Georgetown’s 14-12 resume and league wins over Creighton and at Butler are also valuable despite a losing league record almost assured for the Hoyas. Losing both meetings with Providence as well as a home meeting with Seton Hall with a road meeting still to come could be crushing results in comparing teams that might end up looking rather similar out of the Big East in the eyes of the Selection Committee.
Georgetown has lost two Big East overtime games among four home losses in league play and the team needs a strong run to close out the season to move ahead of the bubble which they are currently behind in most current projections. They get a big game at Creighton this weekend and finish the season hosting Villanova as the opportunities will be there if the right Hoyas squad shows up.
Underachiever – Seton Hall (5-7 S/U, 5-7 ATS): Wins over Iowa, California, and South Carolina put some weight into Seton Hall’s profile but the Pirates haven’t defeated any of the top teams in Big East play. They’ve needed overtime for wins over Georgetown and Providence and a 3-point home win over Marquette is all that stands out as the Pirates are 0-4 vs. the top four teams.
The good news is Seton Hall has plenty of opportunities for a big win down the stretch but the bad news is they have games remaining with each of the top four teams in the conference and too many more losses will burn a team that is in a fragile bubble position at the moment. The first three big games are all at home in succession and if Seton Hall can find a way to win two of those three games while avoiding an upset loss at DePaul they probably have done enough to get into the tournament but given the many close game losses in league play and a 62 percent free throw rate this is a team that will be tough to count on.
Cash Collector – Providence (5-8 S/U, 8-5 ATS): The Friars have covered in seven of the last eight Big East games despite just a 5-8 S/U record on the season in conference play. The wins have all come against the better teams in the league but losses to DePaul and St. John’s plus a non-conference loss to Boston College greatly cripples the slim NCAA Tournament hopes for Ed Cooley’s team. This team could be an upset threat the rest of the way and a profitable underdog with three big games in a row coming up.
The past seven ATS wins for Providence have all come in an underdog role and to date Providence has played the toughest rated Big East schedule at this point in the season with the revenge games vs. the two bottom teams in the conference still to come. 3-point shooting on both sides of the ball is a strong suit for the Friars who have had an admirable season despite losing two NBA draft picks from last year’s team and with a 4-1 record vs. Georgetown, Marquette, and Seton Hall, they might be able to work themselves into a favorable bubble spot with a strong finish despite lacking any great non-conference wins and currently trailing most of their conference peers in the RPI ratings.