Big East Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:
Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia and Pittsburgh
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The Mecca of basketball should once again witness another competitive, exciting Big East tourney.
SYRACUSE lost to Louisville in last year’s title game and the top-ranked Orange are primed to make another title run. The No. 1 seed in this event has appeared in the championship game in each of the last three years and 12 of the previous 17. Boeheim’s boys are always a tough out, posting a solid 11-3 straight up and against the spread record over their last 14 tourney games. Their 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS mark away from the Carrier Dome this season along with their 11-1 SU and ATS log vs .700 or greater opposition has us believing they just might squeeze out their first conference crown since the 2005-2006 campaign.
VILLANOVA has been bounced from this tourney by a No. 1 seed in each of the previous three years and their mediocre 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS record vs. better than .750 opposition this year doesn’t give us much faith they can stop that trend anytime soon. The Wildcats are, however, 19-1 SU and 14-5 ATS vs. 750 or less foes this year and a solid 19-5 SU and 14-10 ATS off a SU win so expect a prolonged stay in the Big Apple.
The Mounties of WEST VIRGINIA are flat out dangerous. Along with five returning starters, they arrive with a veteran coach in Bob Huggins who is a no-nonsense 32-10 SU and 24-17-1 ATS in conference tourney affairs, including 5-1-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than a trey. Unfortunately, their 3-7 ATS log vs .800 or greater opposition along with their surprising 1-5 ATS mark with revenge this season will probably have us heading for the hills.
PITTSBURGH came alive down the stretch (8-1 last nine games) and they’ll be eager to make amends for last year’s one-and-done. The defensive-minded Panthers are always worth a look when they show up as dogs (see more below).
THE SLEEPER: Connecticut
Huskies dragged their tails until Jim Calhoun returned to the sidelines in mid February. The bottom line is there is simply too much pedigree to overlook (read: 21-9 SU last Beast East tourney games). Remember, through all their woes this season, UConn was still 4-2-1 ATS as a conference puppy.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On Pittsburgh as a dog
We placed the Panthers in this spot, under the same parameters last season, and they delivered the bacon. The fact of the matter is Pitt is 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 roles as a Big East tourney dog – with all seven wins straight up. They were also 7-1-1 ATS as a conference dog this season, and yes – all seven wins were straight up! It ain’t broke, and we’re not about to fix it.
Big East tourney: Round 1 Preview and Picks
By DAVID PAYNE
DePaul Blue Demons vs. South Florida Bulls (-6, 123), 12 p.m.
The betting market has been underestimating the Bulls (18-7-1 ATS) all season. They enter the Big East Tournament riding a three-game win streak, which includes a 63-59 victory at DePaul on March 2. South Florida overcame a five-point halftime deficit and dominated the backboards to pull out the game, which was close the entire way.
The Blue Demons went 1-17 in conference play and have lost 12 straight games, a streak that includes blowing a 20-point lead in a triple-overtime loss to St. John’s on Friday.
But, since firing coach Jerry Wainwright on Jan. 10, DePaul has gone 10-6 against the spread.
DePaul has been out-rebounded by a stunning eight rebounds per game in conference play. In comparison, Marquette, the second-worst rebounding team in Big East play, got out-rebound by just 3.9 per game.
Prediction: South Florida 67, DePaul 60
St. John’s Red Storm vs. UConn Huskies (-4, 132), 2 p.m.
How will UConn’s up-and-down season end? Picked to challenge for the Big East title, the Huskies, instead, suffered through a tumultuous year that included coach Jim Calhoun taking a medical leave.
UConn’s at-large hopes were shredded by Saturday’s loss to South Florida. Now, the Huskies must likely win the tournament or miss the Dance.
St. John’s is in the same boat. The difference is the Huskies have the talent to pull it off. The Red Storm don’t.
In the teams’ only meeting of the season, UConn pulled away from St. John’s in the second half and posted a 75-59 victory on Jan. 20.
Prediction: UConn 70, St. John’s 62
Providence Friars vs. Seton Hall Pirates (-5.5, 168), 7 p.m.
Providence shot just 34.6 percent in a 92-80 home loss to the Pirates on Saturday. It was the Friars’ 10th straight loss. They surrendered more than 90 points in five of those 10.
The smallish Pirates are comfortable playing the up-tempo game. They scored 134 points in a December win over VMI and averaged 75 points per game in Big East play.
In what’s expected to be another fast-paced game, point guard play will be key. Advantage Seton Hall: Sophomore Jordan Theodore led the Pirates with 21 points and a season-high eight assists. In his last four games, he’s shooting 50 percent from the field with a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Seton Hall is clinging to hope for an NCAA bid, but the Pirates will need a Big East run, not just a win over Providence.
Prediction: Seton Hall 95, Providence 84
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 132), 9 p.m.
Cincinnati is not a great basketball team by any means. The Bearcats (16-14) shot a conference-low 62.5 percent from the free-throw line and a measly 29.6 percent from 3-point range against Big East competition.
Yet, the Bearcats are the clear-cut favorite over a Rutgers team that played its worst game of the conference season in Saturday’s 29-point loss at Pittsburgh.
"This was my worst nightmare come true, but you've got to let it go and move on," coach Fred Hill told reporters. "Mentally, got to get ready for the Big East tournament and just throw this one out.”
In their only meeting of the season, the Bearcats overcame a five-point halftime deficit to win at Rutgers, 65-58, on Jan. 2. Cincinnati dominated the glass, outrebounding Rutgers by 12.
Prediction: Cincinnati 63, Rutgers 59