Big Ten Bubble Watch
By Joe Nelson
The Big Ten has three highly ranked teams that will be high seeds in the NCAA tournament with Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes certainly look like a good bet for a #1 seed while Purdue and Wisconsin could play into #3-5 range depending on how the season shakes out with the Boilermakers having a shot to climb even to a #2 spot with a very strong close to the season.
Early in the year it looked like the Big Ten would be one of the stronger conferences in the nation but the teams in the middle have failed to step up and Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan remain squarely on the bubble. It appears that a few of the teams in that group will get into the tournament given a soft and expanding bubble and a Big Ten representative could be a threat for an upset or two in early rounds even if the recent results have not offered great promise.
There is also a very good chance that one (or two) of the Big Ten bubble teams ends up in Dayton for the ‘First Four’ match-ups Tuesday or Wednesday as location and travel will likely be a factor in selecting those teams. We are yet to see the impact of teams being forced to play the early week games other than 16 seeds that will inevitably fall to top ranked teams. Intuitively the extra travel and short rest might be a disadvantage but in reality the winners from the First Four that emerge as #11 or #12 seeds could be very dangerous in the tournament.
Getting a first tournament game out of the way could be a big advantage for an underdog facing an untested #5 or #6 seed in the tournament and a First Four win could provide momentum and confidence to a lesser seed. In a normal 5/12 match-up there is also far more time to prepare for an opponent, and in this scenario the favored team will have very little time to practice specifically for the opponent as the match-up will not be decided until two days prior to the game, an edge that may go to the underdog. While #5 or a #6 seeds will be a quality teams, they are still flawed teams that likely have shown some inconsistency so an upset will be more than possible. Since the First Four teams will be given some consideration for location it is also very possible that the winner could have a location advantage against the favored seed. With that in consideration, any of these Big Ten teams could be a threat to still be playing on the weekend if they can sneak into the NCAA tournament field.
Illinois: Much more was expected from Illinois this season and after a strong non-conference start this looked like a team that might contend for a Big Ten title. Illinois started the season 10-1 with the lone loss coming in overtime against Texas. Wins over Maryland, North Carolina, and Gonzaga provided some serious heft to the resume but ultimately those teams all have had somewhat down seasons given the reputations of the programs. There were some troubling signs in December as Illinois barely snuck out wins against Oakland and Northern Colorado and then the upset to Illinois-Chicago occurred. A few days later, Illinois lost a close game to Missouri and it has been forgettable Big Ten season. The Illini were only able to win one of the three home games against the top three in the conference and have only two road wins counted in the 7-8 conference record. Even so, Illinois is bound to get into the tournament assuming they win home games remaining with Indiana and Iowa. Among fellow Big Ten teams they went 1-0 vs. Minnesota, 1-0 vs. Michigan, 1-1 vs. Penn State, and 1-1 against Michigan State so that should be an advantage in the selection process.
Michigan State: Imagine being a #5 seed and staring at Michigan State as your first round match-up. The Spartans are not the team that most projected, literally and figuratively as this has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation and a few key players are now absent. Coach Izzo has a reputation for delivering tournament runs and this is still a talented team that can play with most teams. The Spartans appeared to be on the way out of tournament consideration but wins over Penn State, Illinois, and Minnesota in the last two weeks has this team in a favorable position. Michigan State has a huge game with Purdue in East Lansing this weekend that could put the Spartans in for sure barring a collapse in the final two games of the season. The Spartans have far less to rely than Illinois in the non-conference picture although there are no bad losses on the resume other than the blowout loss at Iowa. Against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Michigan State went 2-0 against Minnesota, 1-1 vs. Penn State, 1-1 vs. Illinois, and 0-1 vs. Michigan with a trip to Ann Arbor yet to come.
Minnesota: The Gophers were in the top 25 most of the season but the injury to Al Nolen has been devastating. The Gophers have been in a similar position each of the last two seasons and they have snuck into the tournament but things look less promising at this point. The Gophers have lost six of the last seven games including three home games and the remaining schedule is not an easy one. Wins over North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue keep the Gophers in the conversation and the lone non-conference loss to Virginia is something they can overcome. The key will be showing the committee that this team has some life without Nolen and in the recent games measures. If Minnesota wins out they will be 9-9 in conference play and that could be enough but 8-10 or worse probably leaves Minnesota NIT bound barring a decent run in the conference tournament. Going 0-2 against Michigan State, 0-1 against Illinois, and 0-1 against Penn State will not help the cause either. Minnesota did beat Michigan earlier in the year and has a chance to at least put itself above the Wolverines by sweeping the series this weekend and a redemption shot against Penn State will close the season. This is a talented team but even if the Gophers make the tournament, getting a different result than the last two years is unlikely in the current state.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions were dealt the toughest possible Big Ten schedule as the two teams they played just once are Iowa and Indiana. The one big bullet against Penn State is a loss to Maine at home just before the Big Ten season as every other loss has come against a quality team. There is nothing remarkable in the non-conference resume and Penn State will need to beat Ohio State next week to enter serious discussions of being an at-large team but this is a team that can be very competitive in many match-ups. If the Lions win out in conference play they will be able to make a strong case for inclusion but anything less will likely leave another unsatisfying season. Penn State has wins over Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan State but all at home and the Lions lost road meetings with the Spartans and Illini. Penn State has only one road win all season long, something that will not be favorably viewed by the selection committee. It is easy to sympathize with Penn State as they likely would have finished with a winning conference record with a different schedule but there is just not enough there. The narrow losses at Purdue and at Ohio State will haunt this team as one of those wins would have completely changed the equation.
Michigan: Had the Wolverines held on for a narrow win against Wisconsin earlier this week the case would have been much easier to make but that last second bank shot may have sunk the resurgent season. Michigan played an incredibly tough non-conference schedule and there are no significantly bad losses on the resume. Wins over Harvard and Clemson are nice and close losses to Syracuse and Kansas should be worth something. Michigan started 1-6 in Big Ten play and that may be too great of a hurdle to overcome even though the Wolverines have won six of the last nine games. Michigan’s case is a little different as they have three road wins in conference play including wins at Michigan State and at Penn State and should they beat Minnesota on the road and then sweep Michigan State in the finale this will be a very interesting case for the selection committee. Michigan lost its only meeting with Illinois, split with Penn State, and is yet to finish its series with Minnesota and Michigan State.
The Big Ten tournament may be critical in sorting out these teams and while none of these teams has thoroughly distinguished itself in recent weeks, it is likely that two or even three of these teams are included in the NCAA tournament field, with a great chance of one of the teams being in the First Four. While there are flaws on each team these are battle-tested squads through a physical Big Ten season and this would not be a favorable draw for a fellow #11 seed in Dayton or for a waiting #5 seed in the next round.