Big Ten Snapshot
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Not even a third of the way into the Big Ten season and every team has a loss in what looks like a balanced group of teams in a league that appears a bit down from its normal national stature. 0-6 Rutgers appears to be at the bottom to stay but the other 13 teams could shuffle around quite a bit in the coming weeks with 10 teams currently separated by just two games in the middle of the standings.
The Big Ten currently projects to have as many as eight NCAA Tournament teams but none of those teams would currently be top four seeds in the field and only three teams currently crack the current Top 25 polls, all outside of the top 15. Here is a look at those eight teams leading the conference as we approach late January.
Favorite – Wisconsin (4-1 S/U, 3-2 ATS): The Badger program has continued a high level of success in Greg Gard’s first full season with a 15-3 overall record and the lone conference loss came in a competitive game at Purdue right after the team picked up a key road win at Indiana. Wisconsin’s track record in recent years carries some weight for a veteran group that returned all the key contributors from last season’s Sweet 16 team. This year’s non-conference slate didn’t feature any high end wins and right now, Wisconsin doesn’t have a win over a team that would be considered in the nation’s top 25. The Badgers face Maryland and Michigan State just once each and they won’t have to play Purdue again as 14-4 looks pretty realistic for this team and in a balanced league that should be enough to be at the top.
Contender – Purdue (4-2 S/U, 3-3 ATS): The two losses for Purdue have been a bit puzzling in league play, blowing a big lead and falling at home in overtime vs. Minnesota and then losing on the road against a very young Iowa squad. The non-conference losses for Purdue came vs. Villanova and Louisville in very close games with Purdue also beating Notre Dame in December as the Boilermakers are on pace for a fine season looking to redeem last season’s early upset loss in the NCAA Tournament. Two early losses in Big Ten play may not be all that damaging for Purdue as the remaining Big Ten schedule is favorable. Purdue won’t play either of the teams they lost to again and they will have the tiebreaker over Wisconsin winning the lone meeting this season. Four games ahead with Indiana and Michigan State will likely determine whether Purdue claims the conference title or is a runner-up.
Overachiever – Maryland (4-1 S/U, 4-1 ATS): The Terrapins were supposed to be a nationally elite squad last season with a star-studded starting five. Twenty-seven wins and a Sweet 16 run wasn’t a bad season but it was a mild disappointment for a team that started the season ranked in the top 5. This year’s team has matched last season’s 16-2 start as junior guard Melo Trimble leads a really young squad that has also had to play without two contributors in the Big Ten season due to injuries. Maryland’s only loss came at home and outside of the three-point win over Indiana they haven’t faced the top teams in the conference. Working in Maryland’s favor is a schedule that includes just one meeting each with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, but the 4-1 ATS mark could erode in the coming weeks for a team that has squeaked out nine of 16 wins by seven or fewer points.
Sleeper – Northwestern (4-2 S/U, 4-2 ATS): The Wildcats have never made the NCAA Tournament and while right now they would probably get in, there is a lot of work to be done. The 4-2 Big Ten start lacks high end wins and non-conference wins over Texas, Wake Forest, and Dayton aren’t looking quite as strong at this point in the season. Northwestern is still a threat to be part of the Big Ten race however as the 4-2 start has come with four road games already taken care of, getting three wins. The Wildcats do draw two games with Purdue ahead but they will face Wisconsin and Maryland just once each and they won’t have to face Michigan State or Minnesota again. A double-digit conference win season looks likely with the remaining path and this is a year where 12-6 might realistically be enough to be in serious contention in the Big Ten if there are some upsets at the top.
Bubble Squad – Minnesota (3-3 S/U, 3-3 ATS): Many were surprised that Richard Pitino survived last season’s ugly 8-23 season that featured only two Big Ten wins. The Gophers were much more competitive than the record showed however with nine conference losses by single-digits. Minnesota impressed in the non-conference schedule this fall with the only loss coming at Florida State and a 3-1 start in Big Ten play with the only loss in overtime announced the Gophers as contenders. After entering the Top 25, the Gophers lost back-to-back road games at Michigan State and at Penn State and they have many tough remaining games. Minnesota won’t have to face Purdue or Northwestern again, but two meetings each with Wisconsin and Maryland remain. The Gophers beat a number of decent, but not great teams in the non-conference campaign as a NCAA Tournament berth will come down to putting together a winning season in the Big Ten.
Underachiever – Indiana (2-3 S/U, 2-3 ATS): The good news for Indiana is that the overtime loss to Fort Wayne from November might be a top 100 loss by season’s end as the Mastadons look like a contender in the Summit League. Indiana’s wins over Kansas and North Carolina will also continue to carry a ton of weight as even in a down season for the Big Ten Indiana’s NCAA Tournament candidacy will still be alive and well as long as they can finish with a .500 conference season. Right now that looks somewhat challenging with two home losses and one of the tougher remaining conference schedules. Indiana still draws Purdue twice while still facing tough road games at Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio State. The Hoosiers will close the season with road games in four of the final five as the lousy start has come with four of five conference games at Assembly Hall. The talent and offensive potential for Indiana is there and the Hoosiers are capable of a great run the rest of the way but that type of consistency hasn’t been the norm under Tom Crean.
Enigma – Michigan State (4-2 S/U, 4-2 ATS): The Spartans played a brutally tough non-conference schedule and lost four of the first eight games of the season. Those defeats all came against Top 25 caliber teams but three of the four weren’t that competitive and Michigan State also lost at home to Northeastern in December with only a win over Wichita State standing out on the non-conference resume. Injuries and inexperience were factors and many trust Tom Izzo’s track record to put Michigan State back in Big Ten contention as usual. It looked that way with a 3-0 league start but Michigan State has since lost to Penn State and Ohio State. The Spartans haven’t played Indiana, Purdue, or Wisconsin yet and the statistics feature alarming numbers in turnovers and free throw shooting very uncharacteristic of Izzo squads. The next month figures to feature a bunch of toss-up type of games for the Spartans as this year’s team could go either way.
Dark Horse – Michigan (2-4 S/U, 1-5 ATS): The Wolverines have been a disappointment with a veteran squad that is now just 12-7 on the season with a tough start in Big Ten play. Michigan played right with Wisconsin on the road this week and has the potential for a strong finish with the typical strengths of John Beilein teams featuring a deliberate pace but strong shooting and ball control. Michigan has been burned by opponents shooting nearly 43 percent on 3-points shots this season and while the Wolverines have a difficult remaining schedule they are capable of beating anyone. The non-conference schedule is proving to be stronger than expected with teams like Marquette, South Carolina, and UCLA exceeding expectations and the opportunity to add quality wins in Big Ten play will be there with upcoming tests against Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Purdue as a run back to the NCAA Tournament is possible.
Big Ten ATS Notes: Home underdogs in Big Ten play are currently 6-3 S/U and 7-2 ATS counting Penn State’s Palestra win over Michigan State. There have been eight outright wins from road underdogs in league play. Overall, Northwestern has been the league’s best ATS performer at 11-5 ATS with Michigan the worst at 5-11 ATS. Indiana won the Big Ten last season with a 15-3 regular season record going 10-8 ATS.