Bracket Analysis
By Brian Edwards
The bracket is out for the 2011 NCAA Tournament and as always, we aren’t without controversy. Let’s begin our discussion with the bubble teams that got in and the ones that got shafted.
UAB and VCU’s inclusions in the field were the biggest shockers. The Blazers won the Conference USA regular-season title, but they went down against East Carolina in the C-USA Tournament quarterfinals. VCU (23-11 straight up, 13-20 against the spread) lost five of its last eight games and was beaten seven times in Colonial play.
The Rams are in one of the play-in games against Southern Cal. These teams will square off in Dayton on Wednesday. The winner will be slotted as a No. 11 seed against Georgetown, a team that has lost four in a row.
Most books opened USC as a four-point favorite vs. VCU. The Trojans will have head coach Kevin O’Neill back after he was suspended during the Pac-10 Tournament for a verbal incident with an Arizona fan.
The other play-in game for at-large teams will pit Clemson against UAB. Most betting shops have installed the Tigers as five-point favorites. They nearly knocked off North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals, only to blow a big lead and lose in overtime.
There are a slew of teams, most notably Saint Mary’s, Colorado, Va. Tech, Alabama and Harvard, who feel like they got snubbed. Yes, I said Harvard, which I clearly think had a better year than both UAB and VCU. My votes would’ve gone to Saint Mary’s and Colorado instead of VCU and UAB.
The top seeds are Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh. I think the Panthers have the toughest path to Houston with potential opponents including the Butler-ODU winner, Kansas State, St. John’s and Florida. The Red Storm beat the Panthers a few weeks ago.
Ohio St. will get a tough game from Kentucky in the Sweet 16, but I think its opponent to get to the Final Four will come against a No. 6 seed, Xavier. I have the Buckeyes getting to the Final Four with only one major hurdle (UK).
John Calipari’s team has caught fire at the right time, winning six in a row including a pair of wins over second-seeded Florida. The Wildcats have talent galore with future lottery picks in Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones, but they lack depth with only six players getting major minutes.
Duke bounced back from its loss at North Carolina in the regular-season finale to thump the Tar Heels in the finals of the ACC Tournament. The defending champs won’t have it easy in the second round against the Tennessee-Michigan winner. Both teams have fabulous freshman players in Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Duke’s region probably has the most talented No. 4 seed in Texas for a potential Sweet 16 game. However, the Longhorns slumped down the stretch and face a dangerous Oakland team in the first round.
Déjà vu
In the 2003 NCAA Tournament, Florida was a No. 2 seed and was sent to Tampa to play in its home state. That same year, Michigan State had a disappointing campaign and was a No. 10 seed. The Spartans beat Temple in their first-round game and then got the Gators in the second round. Tom Izzo’s team dominated Matt Bonner, David Lee and Co. and cruised to a blowout victory over UF. Sparty also bested Florida in the national-title game in 2000. In other words, UF fans weren’t happy to see Michigan St. as a potential foe.
West Va. upset top-seeded Kentucky in the Elite Eight last season. If form holds, these teams will square off in a second-round matchup in Tampa.
Josh Pastner has Memphis back in the NCAA Tournament to face the team he played for during his collegiate days, Arizona. Pastner also served as an assistant under Lute Olson.
Lon Kruger left Illinois to take the head-coaching job with the Atlanta Hawks back in 2000. He’ll face his former team when UNLV takes on the Illini in an 8/9 matchup. Bruce Weber really needs to win this game. Most spots have tabbed the Rebels as 1 ½-point favorites.
The Selection Committee is making UConn play on a Thursday even though it just played five days in a row while winning the Big East Tournament. Likewise, the committee did Georgia a similar injustice following its wild run through the SEC Tournament in 2006. Due to a tornado in Atlanta, UGA had to play a doubleheader on Saturday and also play on Sunday. Nevertheless, the Dawgs were forced to play on Thursday at noon Eastern. They predictably faded down the stretch, letting an eight-point halftime lead get away in a loss to Xavier.
UConn will face 14th-seeded Bucknell, which was also a No. 14 seed when it upset Kansas in the first round of the 2005 NCAA Tournament.
Wild Cards
If Duke freshman point guard Kyrie Irving can return and be productive, the Blue Devils’ chances of repeating will go up exponentially. Irving, who has been out since November with a toe injury, averaged 17.4 points, 5.1 assists and 3.8 rebounds in eight games before being sidelined. His status remains very iffy but he was seen doing conditioning drills and shooting around at the ACC Tourney.
Will Georgetown’s Chris Wright be his normal self when the sixth-seeded Hoyas take the court against the USC-VCU winner? If not, John Thompson III’s team will be in trouble. Georgetown comes into the tournament on a four-game losing streak, but it deserves the No. 6 seed if Wright is back at 100 percent.
Watch out for Michigan’s ultra-talented backcourt. If Darius Miller and Tim Hardaway Jr. play their best games, Duke will need its A-Game to get past the Wolverines, who I think will knock off Tennessee in an intriguing first-round showdown. Michigan comes into the tournament on an incredible 12-1 ATS roll.
When you have the best point guard in America, you’ve got a shot against anybody. On that note, Xavier is going to be a dangerous out with Tu Holloway running the show.
How much gas does UConn have left in the tank after playing five consecutive days? The Huskies are playing great, as evidenced by their improbable run through the Big East Tournament. Kemba Walker averaged 26.0 points per game to lead the way, doing his best Gerry McNamara impersonation in the process. UConn is a No. 3 seed that’ll face Bucknell as an 11-point ‘chalk.’
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Arkansas fired John Pelphrey after four seasons and is reportedly poised to target Missouri head coach Mike Anderson, who was Nolan Richardson’s top assistant during the school’s glory days in the 1990s. As I’ve been prone to point out many times through the years, Richardson took a lot of heat for the way he forced the school’s hand in dismissing him in 2002. He essentially dared the school to get rid of him by saying, “they can pay me my money.” Well, here we are nine years later and the Razorbacks have one combined win in the NCAA Tournament since handing Richardson his pink slip. In other words, Nolan was right all along. His thinking was basically this: If they think they can find a coach to provide as much success as me, then good luck. Obviously, Arkansas has had no such luck but if Anderson returns, he’ll bring back the 40 Minutes of Hell Philosophy. And something tells me Bud Walton Arena will be rocking again soon.
According to SportsByBrooks, Wyoming is trying to hire former Oregon head coach Ernie Kent and the leading candidate for the Texas Tech job is Billy ‘Clyde’ Gillispie, the much-maligned former head coach at Texas A&M and Kentucky.
Georgia head coach Mark Fox’s wife is a graduate of the University of Washington. The Dawgs will take on the Huskies in a first-round contest. Most books opened Washington as a 5½-point ‘chalk.’
It’s too easy making ESPN analyst Doug Gottlieb look like a clown. He went to great lengths last year to rip West Va. guard Joe Mazzulla for his lack of punch offensively going into the Mountaineers’ Elite Eight game against Kentucky. Mazzulla was replacing starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant, who was out with a broken foot. I quickly broke out Gottlieb’s abysmal shooting numbers from 3-point land and at the free-throw line during his playing career at Oklahoma St. All Mazzulla did was dominate John Wall on both ends of the floor and score a career-high 17 points in WVU’s upset win over UK. This time around, Gottlieb has irked this space by calling Florida ‘the most overrated team in the tournament.’ For starters, let’s clarify to readers that UF is the team that ended Gottlieb’s playing career in a blowout win at the Carrier Dome in the Elite Eight of the 2000 NCAA Tournament. Let’s also note UF’s stellar 11-3 record against RPI Top 50 teams and 17-4 mark against RPI Top 100 squads. The Gators own a 13-3 record against teams in the NCAA field.
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