Bracket Buster is Opportunity to Win and Learn
By Doug Upstone
This upcoming college basketball weekend is a great time to be razor sharp on a number of teams that will make the NCAA Tournament field of 65 in about a month. Several of the squads on Bracket Buster weekend will be in the tournament or at least be playing post-season basketball somewhere and to have a working knowledge of them and their style of play and talent is invaluable for picking winners. Among the nuggets uncovered for Bracket Buster contests are road teams win only 38 percent, yet cover 56.4 percent of the time (149-115-9). Be sure to sift thru the complete board since teams catching 10 or more points are on 23-11 ATS move. Here is a look at four of the key televised games and much more available information.
Friday, Feb.19
Old Dominion at Northern Iowa
Bracket Buster starts on Friday, with a delectable Colonial vs. Missouri Valley matchup. Old Dominion (21-7, 9-14-1 ATS) is 8-4 and 2-6 ATS in non-conference action and is one of the better defensive teams in the land, allowing 55.8 points a game. Kent Bazemore has taken over running the Monarchs at guard and his concern for ball security and defensive mindset has ODU living up to preseason expectations in the CAA. This should be a low scoring half court contest and the Monarchs are 0-6 ATS in road games when they score 60 or less points in a game this season.
Center Jordan Eglseder is the most likely candidate to be the Valley Player of the Year; however hes been suspended for three games and will not play in this contest. As witnessed in recent contest against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (23-3, 17-8 ATS) has to have Adam Koch at crunch time. The senior has size at 6'9, making him difficult to defend within 10 feet of the rim as power forward against comparable teams and Koch has a quality array of ways to score either near the bucket or outside. The Panthers have complete control of the conference; nonetheless a win against a similar club, with similar circumstances would be a boost to confidence before the Big Dance. UNI is 10-3 ATS versus teams outscoring opponents by four or points a game this season.
Saturday, Feb. 20
Siena at Butler
Veteran basketball observers will tell you the difference between Butler and Siena is location, Indianapolis and historic Hinkle Fieldhouse vs. Loudonville, N.Y. The Saints (22-5, 14-9-2 ATS) have strung together four straight 20-win seasons and earns nationally televised cable contest against ranked opponent. "It's a great opportunity for our program," Siena coach Fran McCaffery said. The Saints have a great deal of depth, but pay particular attention to forward Alex Franklin and guard Ronald Moore. Siena is 17-7 ATS in road games after a trio of favorite roles.
Its a rare occasion when Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS) is out of Horizon League play in televised tilt with the opposing team having more to gain with a victory. That is the case in this matchup, with the Bulldogs the hunted. A solid win against a team like Siena carries positives, as they have good RPI numbers and are highly thought of in basketball circles, which could improve Butlers seeding in the middle of March. If you have missed the Bulldogs, keep a watchful eye on forward Gordon Hayward (NBA potential), Matt Howard and point guard Shelvin Mack who runs the show. The marquee matchup of Bracket Buster Saturday has Butler 12-0 at home with 4-8 ATS mark.
Louisiana Tech at Northeastern
If Louisiana Tech (20-6, 11-9-1 ATS) could have substituted teams from New Mexico off the schedule (0-3), they would be having an even better season. Expectations were low coming in the 2009-10 campaign, with the Bulldogs presumed to be a run of the mill WAC club. A strong senior core blended with the 6'7 redshirt sophomore power forward Olu Ashaolu, has transformed a team nobody knew about into a WAC conference contender, garnering national attention with a contest like this. Home attendance is the highest in four years in Ruston and theyve drawn a record crowd this season in their three-year old building. Now Louisiana Tech has to go prove themselves and is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.
The old story of you dont learn anything by losing doesnt apply to Northeastern. As they prepared for seventh place tournament game in Hawaii on Dec. 25, the Huskies stood at 2-7 and their season was unraveling to say the least. Northeastern (18-9, 15-10-1 ATS) defeated SMU 73-62 and exploded from that point, with 16-2 and 13-5 ATS record. "I think this team learned from losing," coach Bill Coen said. "It was more a mental thing. We decided to take a little more pride in what we were doing on defense." The Huskies are 11-4 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season.
New Mexico State at Pacific
It was a sluggish start to the season for New Mexico State at 3-6 for good reason. Forwards Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater were ineligible academically to start the year and McKines was the first to return, followed by Gillenwater and now the Aggies are fighting for WAC championship, having won 13 of last 16 (9-3-1 ATS). New Mexico State (16-9, 11-8-1 ATS) likes to play all 94 feet in scoring 77.9 points per game and still has three challenging road encounters, including this contest. The Aggies are 7-2-1 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.
This was supposed to be the year Pacific (17-8, 11-13 ATS) became just another club in the Big West after losing its top four point producers from last season. When it comes to doing the job, these Tigers still have plenty of bite, tied for the lead in the conference. Pacific is not built to play the up and down game like the Aggies (average total score about 125 points) and they will have to control the tempo at the Spanos Center.
The teams have played a number of common opponents this season -- St. Mary's, Cal State Fullerton, Pepperdine, Nevada, Fresno State and San Jose State. Pacific is 4-2 and 2-4 ATS against those teams and N.M. State is 4-4 and 3-5 ATS. The Tigers are 27-15 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less or pick.