BracketBuster Breakdown
By Keith Fredrick
The Bracket Buster, originally a bright ESPN idea to bring some of the best "mid major" college basketball teams together on one day and televise all (12 to 14 in original plans) the games, has now grown into a two-day event, which was even moved to three days a couple of years back before the folks at "the mothership" somewhat came to their senses.
What was meant as a showcase for the best of the mid majors has now turned into a free for all, as nearly every team in the category is playing this weekend, which to me lessens the impact of the event, and certainly makes it lose much of its luster. I mean, really, do we need to know what is going to happen when Elon travels to Gardner-Webb, or Presbyterian visits Jacksonville State? Do not forget about the titanic tussle between Southern Illinois-Edwardsville at Cal-Fullerton, or my personal (sic) "favorite" Marist at Cal-Irvine. I am sure Marist would rather save the travel money than fly out to the West Coast to get blitzed (my projections call for a 14 point Irvine win) by Irvine. I love college hoops, but so many of these games are "What is the point" type of contests, and as I said above this event would really be an "event" again if it were pared down.
Thankfully, there are good games as well, although not nearly as many as in the past, and even some of the potential marquee games have been hurt by injuries and/or suspension. I will present the top five games from this view (in order of tip off time), with point-spread opinions included when I have a definite side opinion on the game as I write this.
Old Dominion at Northern Iowa Friday, 7pm EST
Both of these teams should make the NCAA Tournament regardless of how this game ends up, but the winner has a chance at improving their seed for sure. I have both of these teams in my Top 50, but since NIU¹s second leading scorer will be serving a suspension for this one, it does lose some of its luster. NIU has dropped three in a row in the Bracket Buster, with the only win since 2005 coming in Overtime. ODU is 4-0 in the Buster series, but this is easily the best team they have faced in the event. The line should be about Pick¹em, and the only way I would be seriously interested in this one would be a line of four or more, and then I would take the dog.
Siena at Butler Saturday, 11am EST
Both of these teams are capable of playing on the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and to me this is the marquee game of the event, worth waking up for with the (weird) 11am start on the East Coast (I will be up at 8am to watch it here in Vegas.) Siena beat Northern Iowa in this event last year and is 3-1 SU in it the last four seasons. That record is even more impressive when noting that three of the four games were on the road, and the lone loss was in overtime.
This will be the last meaningful game for the Saints until the MEAC Tournament, and I do look for an excellent effort, especially since they have had the entire week to get ready while Butler (1-3 in BB, lost both at home) played a league game on Wednesday. Butler should be about a six point favorite here, and as long as it is +4 or more I will definitely be taking the underdog in this one.
Louisiana Tech at Northeastern Saturday, 1pm
This sets up VERY nicely for Northeastern as La Tech off a nationally televised road game against conference leader Utah State and now have to travel to the other side of the country to play Matt Janning and Northeastern. In that last game La Tech was in it until the very end, so it was both a physically and emotionally demanding game Northeastern is 3-1 in the BB, with two impressive home wins, and I look for more of the same in this one. I will be on Northeastern provided they are laying seven or less.
Akron at Virginia Commonwealth Saturday, 4pm
Akron an interesting team. They struggled in the non conference slate, going 4-3 to start the season and being just two baskets away from being 2-5 in those first seven games. However, they have going 16-4 in their last 20 contests and come into this one winners of six in a row. VCU presents a challenge, as they are 13-1 SU at home this season and have a potential star in 6-11 Larry Sanders, who should have no peer on this court today. It is also interesting that this game is a "Bracket Buster Rematch" as VCU went into Akron two years ago and won 57-52 and also won the contractually guaranteed comeback game by a 73-69 tally last season. Interested to see where this line actually comes out - my projections are for VCU to be favored by six. Lean is with the home team barring a massive number.
Wichita State at Utah State Saturday, 11:59pm
Utah State played poorly for 30 minutes on Wednesday night against Louisiana Tech and still got the win, as the crowd at the Smith Spectrum was unbelievably loud for the ESPN2 cameras. It figures to be loud and crazy here again on national TV against a well respected opponent. Shockers are not used to starting a game at (their body clock) 11pm and playing into the early morning hours, while this 9pm local time start is old hat for USU. Not surprisingly, the home team is 4-0 SU in Utah State Bracket Buster games the last four seasons (Aggies 2-2), but somewhat surprisingly since it was Missouri Valley team this event was created for, Wichita State is jus 1-3 SU in their last four Bracket Buster games. The above "handicap" of the game certainly points to home team, but with a projected line of -8 it does not look like I will be real heavily involved with this one; put me down for a small lean with Utah State.
Those are the biggest games of Bracket Buster Saturday, but there are others of interest. I will note each and give a quick note regarding the game, whether that note is general or specific to the point-spread:
Oral Roberts at Austin Peay- I actually have ORU as the better team here, yet the consensus is that Austin Peay will be laying points. If that is the case you can certainly mark me down for a play on the underdog. Drexel at Bradley- Another case of the road team being more talented but likely coming a dog, and if that is the case I will be on the Dragon's back for this contest.
Toledo at Cleveland State
Pending the result of CSU's game tonite (Thursday), the Vikings will either be 14-14 or 13-15 coming into this game.
Either way, it is a stark contrast to the 20-8 record they brought into the Bracket Buster last season when they lost to Wichita State in a game Coach Gary Waters knew would be trouble, as before the contest he called it a "no win situation" for his team. That is NOT the case this time around, as the Vikings cannot let an opportunity for a win slip by, as teams are only eligible for the post season if they have a better than .500 record. Toledo was not very good when they had their full roster, and now attrition and suspensions have robbed them of even more talent. This is going to be a big number, but lay it!
Cal-Poly at Hawaii and Fresno State at Cal-Santa Barbara
While this season Fresno and UCSB are better than their counterparts that will meet on the islands, in general all four schools fight for the same kids in recruiting. The two winners here will have a leg up, and the coaches know it, so expect good efforts from all four teams.