Bracketology Update

Bracketology Update
The Gold Sheet

It's less than two weeks, and counting, until Selection Sunday. Which means it's time to update our latest TGS Big Dance tourney projections.

Regarding the eventual composition of the tournament, last weekend didn't help sort things out very much, especially on the bubble. Nonetheless, a few things are coming into clearer focus as we get closer to the March 15 announcement of the pairings in Indianapolis.

1) One-bid leagues turning into two-bid leagues. This is often a byproduct of the mid-majors, where a handful of leagues have one team entering conference tourney action that appears to be a lock for the Big Dance regardless of the outcome in the loop postseason festivities. The byproduct of such dynamics is that if the favored entry loses in the conference tourney, that league will suddenly have an extra team headed to the Big Dance at the expense of another "bubble" team elsewhere in the country. This season, the leagues that best fit this profile appear to be the Horizon (Butler), Missouri Valley (Creighton), WAC (Utah State) , West Coast (Gonzaga), and perhaps Southern (Davidson) and Metro-Atlantic (Siena).

In none of those leagues, however, are the favorites anything close to a sure thing to prevail in the conference tourneys. That's especially so in the Horizon, where despite sitting pretty for an at-large bid, Butler got a reminder last Saturday from hungry Cleveland State that things are not going to be easy in the knockout format, even if the Horizon Tourney will be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse as long as HC Brad Stevens' team stays alive in the event (Horizon quarters and semis are being held at Hinkle, with the final at the home of the highest-remaining seed, which will be the Bulldogs if they reach the finale). Remember, the Bulldogs have won twice in league play by only a total of 3 points against HC Gary Waters' CSU Vikings, while Butler has also lost at home to bipolar Loyola-Chicago, as well as losing at both UW-Green Bay & Milwaukee. As a young team that relies a lot on perimeter shooting, Butler could be the most-vulnerable of these favorites in conference tourney action.

As for Creighton, we're not as sure the Bluejays are safe as an at-large as we are with Butler, but we can say with some confidence that no other Missouri Valley team is going to get an at-large bid unless it's Creighton. If the Bluejays win "Arch Madness" in St. Louis, the Valley is assuredly a one-bid league, but that might not be the case if Dana Altman's Omaha-based crew doesn't win the event in St. Louis. Stay tuned.

Similarly, we're not as sure the WAC's Utah State is guaranteed an at-large bid like we were three weeks ago. Since then, however, the Utags have suffered road defeats at Boise State, Saint Mary's, and last Saturday at Nevada, the latter a particularly troubling development for Stew Morrill's team since the Wolf Pack hosts the WAC Tourney in Reno. A bolt of confidence that a win over the conference leader might give Mark Fox's young and talented team at this stage of the season is incalculable. Utah State's overall numbers suggest it will still probably get an at-large bid if it at least reaches the conference tourney final, but a loss there by the Aggies could effectively knock another "bubble" team out of the Dance.

As for Gonzaga, its Big Dance ticket is safely punched, but that's not the case for desperate Saint Mary's, which might need to win the WCC Tourney (being held later this week at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas...not a bad venue, eh?) to advance. Similarly, a dangerous darkhorse such as Santa Clara could guarantee the WCC to be a multi-bid conference should it unexpectedly win in Las Vegas. Remember, the WCC became a surprise 3-bid league last season when San Diego won the conference tourney, eventually joining Gonzaga & Saint Mary's in the Dance.

Davidson's case in the Southern Conference is very interesting, because recent home losses vs. The Citadel and Butler would seem to have detoured the Wildcats' NCAA at-large hopes, instead forcing Stephen Curry & Co. to win the conference tournament...although that might not be the case. Remember, Curry missed The Citadel loss with a sprained ankle, and was largely ineffective because of the injury vs. Butler, and the Committee will often take those injury matters into consideration when deliberating about a team's Big Dance worthiness. And, as none other than Digger Phelps hypothesized on ESPN Game Day a week ago, a player such as Curry is hard for the Committee to overlook. So, should Davidson lose in the SoCon tourney (not out of the question, considering the loss to The Citadel and a defeat vs. Bobby Cremins' College of Charleston before Curry hurt his ankle), the SoCon could still easily become a 2-bid league. At least Digger Phelps seems to think so.

As for Siena, we and others were thinking that the Saints had a legit at-large argument, at least before last week's loss at Niagara. But the Purple Eagles are formidable, and indeed romped past Missouri Valley contender Illinois State in recent Bracket Buster action. Could the Committee take both Siena & Niagara, or will only the conference tourney winner get an invitation to the Big Dance? Stay tuned.

It should be noted that upsets in other conference tourneys that project multiple bids into the NCAAs can change the look of the Big Dance field, too. The Mountain West figures on at least two bids, but it could easily become a 3-bid league if a team such as tourney host UNLV (which has won the MWC event the past two years), San Diego State, or New Mexico pull off the upset. Similarly, the Atlantic Ten looks like a two-bid league (Xavier & Dayton), but a tourney surprise from the likes of hot Rhode Island or last year's winner Temple (neither of which would come as a shocker), or perhaps a darkhorse such as Duquesne, could turn the A-10 into a 3-bid league.

2) How deep does the Committee look in the Big Ten? The Big Ten has been a hot potato for pundits all season long, with NCAA projections from the league varying wildly. We really doubt the Committee goes more than six deep, which means at least two from among Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin aren't going to make the cut (Michigan State, Purdue, & Illinois already safely projected into the 65-team field).

3) How about the SEC? Most pundits seem to have the SEC maxed out a five bids, with some thinking the number could shrink to as few as 3. We're still thinking five, with hot LSU now certain of receiving a bid, and South Carolina also looking secure. Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky all still project into our field, with Auburn looming as possible stretch-runner, but none of the last four can afford to flounder in the final week of regular-season play, nor make an early exit in the conference tourney at Tampa, if wanting to keep Big Dance dreams alive.

We'll continue to monitor the possible look of the tournament over the next few weeks. For now, however, here's how our latest projections shape up.

Last four in: Miami-Florida, Wisconsin, Providence, UAB.

Last four out: Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's.

Next four out: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, UNLV.

Remember, the situation will remain fluid until Selection Sunday, so we'll have time to refine our projected field a few more times before the pairing are announced. In the meantime, here's our fourth installment of TGS Big Dance projections. Remember, these will next be updated Friday on our website, and will be continued to be updated from now thru Selection Sunday. Straight-up records and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) are thru March 2.

Let's go!

EAST REGIONAL (Boston)

1 UConn (SUR 27-2, RPI-2) vs. 16 Binghamton (20-8, 160)... Pitt's loss last Tuesday night at Providence isn't enough to knock the Panthers off the top line, but it does temporarily rearrange the regional assignment deck. For the moment, UConn gets the top slot in the East, although it might have to claim the Big East tourney crown to keep the spot. Hot Binghamton has won 8 in a row to wrest the America East regular-season crown from Vermont; conference tourney action begins Friday in Albany.

8 BYU (22-6, 23) vs. 9 Florida (21-8, 38)... We're still not sure how deep the Committee is going to go in the Mountain West, but BYU's crucial Saturday win over red-hot Utah, coupled with its midweek win at San Diego State, means the Cougs are probably going to be one of the loop's reps. Remember, due to LDS restrictions, BYU must play its games at Thursday-Saturday locales, which the Philly sub-regional and East Regional qualify. Florida is getting itself into a little bubble trouble after losses in 4 of its last 6 games. No one has to remind Billy Donovan what happened at the end of last season, and to be safe the Gators had better make sure they don't slip in their remaining regular-season games (at Mississippi State and home vs. Kentucky).

At Boise...

4 Missouri (25-4, 9) vs. 13 Siena (22-7, 65)... We're not in the rumor business at TGS, but we think we were the first ones in print to mention that Mizzou HC Mike Anderson might be tempted by the Alabama job. Could those rumors have had something to do with the Tigers' lackadaisical effort over the weekend vs. Kansas? It's cost Mizzou a line in our latest brackets. Meanwhile, Niagara reminded Siena on Friday night that the Saints aren't going to have an easy time of it in the MAAC Tourney next week in Albany. Do the Saints (who whipped Vandy in the first round of last year's Dance) have enough of an at-large case to sway the Committee if they get knocked off in their conference tourney?

5 Clemson (22-6, 14) vs. 12 Western Kentucky (21-8, 80)... Since Clemson wasn't able to shake its case of the February "blahs" in Saturday's loss at Florida State, the reeling Tigers (who haven't looked quite the same since throttling Duke a few weeks ago) are penalized a protected seed this week, and can look forward to sub-regional action far from home unless they straighten things out in a hurry. Surging WKU continues to set the pace in the Sun Belt East, and a top finish in that half means the Tops will avoid the chance of facing West winner (and revenge-minded) UA Little Rock before the finals of the Sun Belt Tourney in Hot Springs.

At Minneapolis...

2 Michigan State (23-5, 8) vs. 15 Cornell (19-9, 121)... The Spartans dug in and knocked off Illinois Sunday at Champaign-Urbana, important since Tom Izzo's bunch was popped at Purdue in its last Big Ten road outing. That win vs. the Illini should keep the Spartans a 2 seed for now, but it is a tenuous temporary assignment, as MSU is far more likely to slip as far as a 4 seed than of getting to the top line. Cornell missed a chance to sew up its second straight Ivy crown when losing by 1 Saturday at Harvard. The Big Red will have to wait for this weekend's games in Ithaca vs. Penn or Princeton to sew up another league title.

7 Cal (21-8, 27) vs. 10 Kansas State (20-9, 43)... The Bears narrowly averted what would have been a damaging weekend by surviving an overtime scare vs. Southern Cal Thursday night. To be safe, Mike Montgomery will want to make sure his team at least gets a split in the Tucson-Tempe swing this weekend. Needing a win over Nebraska to salvage the week after losing big at Mizzou Wednesday night, K-State succeeded and has won 9 of 11 heading into Monday night's tricky encounter vs. Oklahoma State.

At Miami...

3 Wake Forest (22-5, 11) vs. 14 American (21-7, 106)... By avoiding a couple of potential banana peels last week vs. NC State & Virginia, Wake solidified itself in protected seed territory. Now, the Deacs are hoping a fast finish will have the Committee consider placing them in Greensboro sub-regional at the expense of North Carolina or Duke (both beaten by Wake this season). American has won the Patriot League's regular-season crown and enters its conference tourney as the clear favorite, especially since the Eagles will host all of their conference tourney games if they keep winning.

6 West Virginia (20-9, 15) vs. 11 Minnesota (20-8, 35)... It was important for WVU to avoid an ambush at South Florida on Sunday, as it removed the chance the Mounties could possibly finish below .500 in the Big East. Instead, the win over the Bulls actually sets Bob Huggins' crew up for a big final week, as wins vs. DePaul (expected) and Louisville (much tougher, but in front of Bob Knight and the ESPN Game Day crew Saturday in Morgantown) could put WVU in a position to threaten for a protected seed with a strong showing in the Big East Tourney. Minnesota continues to hang in the field by its fingernails, and the Gophers can't start feeling comfy unless they win their last two reg.-season games vs. fellow bubblers Wisconsin & Michigan.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis)

1 North Carolina (23-2, 1) vs. Play-in game... There were a few doubters among us when the Heels lost at Maryland Feb. 21, but UNC reminded everyone that it was still number one seed-caliber after Saturday's 30-point romp past Georgia Tech. Again this week, the play-in game at Dayton projects the Big South's Radford (18-11, 171) against the SWAC's Alabama State (17-8, 215). Remember, the winner of the play-in game will always be slated for Friday sub-regional action, and doesn't have to be pitted against the top tourney seed.

8 Butler (25-4, 26) vs. 9 Oklahoma State (19-9, 36)... Butler sewed up the Horizon's regular-season crown (and host status as long as it stays alive in the conference tourney) with Saturday's cliffhanger win vs. Cleveland State. Rest assured a few bubble teams will be paying attention to the Horizon proceedings, as it is a 1-bid league unless the Bulldogs get knocked off in the conference tourney. Welcome to the field Oklahoma State, which sent a strong message in Saturday's win over Texas, the Cowboys' fifth on the trot. With James Anderson as hot as any player in the country, the Cowboys enter March plenty hot and plenty dangerous, although tricky assignments vs. Kansas State and "hoop bedlam" vs. Oklahoma awaits this week.

At Dayton...

4 Villanova (23-6, 18) vs. 13 Virginia Commonwealth (21-9, 78)... Do we detect a downturn at Villanova? A narrow 2-point midweek escape at winless (in Big East play) DePaul, and Saturday's home loss vs. previously slumping Georgetown, means Jay Wright's boys don't seem to be hitting March with a full head of steam. Note that the Cats won't be able to play in the Philadelphia sub-regional because Nova plays some home games at the Wachovia Center, the site of first-and-second round games. As long as the Cats stay in protected seed territory, a venue such as Dayton could be their destination. VCU has secured the top seed in this week's CAA tourney in Richmond, and HC Anthony Grant will surely remind the Rams that they were in the same spot last season, but blew their chance at a return trip to the Big Dance by allowing William & Mary to pull a semifinal upset. Still, the Colonial event looks to be a wide-open one.

5 LSU (25-4, 31) vs. 12 Wisconsin (18-10, 29)... When will the pundits start to take LSU seriously? After all, teams are allowed to improve as the season progresses, but in the Tigers' case, those non-league losses (all by double-digit margins) vs. Texas A&M, Utah (by 30) and Xavier are hard to forget. But it might be hard to deny the Tigers (an a 10-game win streak) a protected seed if their win streak continues through the SEC Tourney. Wisconsin is feeling a bit safer after Sunday's win over Michigan. The Badgers might be a more-natural 11 seed, but get a procedural bump down in our South bracket thanks to the presence of Kentucky (which can't play SEC foe LSU in the sub-regional).

At Dayton...

2 Louisville (23-5, 7) vs. 15 UT-Martin (21-8, 134)... The Cards survived a spirited effort from Dominic James-less Marquette on Sunday and remain on course for a 2 seed. They'll need some help, however, to secure a spot on the top line. Emerging at the front of the topsy-turvy Ohio Valley queue is UT-Martin, which won the OVC's regular-season crown and secured top seed in the conference tourney at the Sommet Center with Saturday's impressive win over league contender Morehead State.

7 Arizona State (21-7, 22) vs. 10 Michigan (18-12, 42)... It wasn't a great week for Arizona State, which lost a couple of bitter overtime decisions on its swing through the Washington schools and dropped all of the way down to 3rd in the Pac-10 in the process. For now, it's goodbye to a protected seed for the Sun Devils, who might have to win the Pac-10 Tourney to get back into that category. Despite Sunday's close loss at Wisconsin, Michigan re-entered the discussion with its midweek win over Purdue. John Beilein's bunch won't stay in the field if it loses its regular-season finale vs. Minnesota, but with wins over the Boilermakers, Duke, UCLA, and Illinois, the Wolverines (for the moment) have a legit at-large case.

At Kansas City...

3 Kansas (24-5, 10) vs. 14 Buffalo (18-9, 107)... We have to wonder if Kansas HC Bill Self isn't doing a better job in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for his Jayhawks, than a year ago when KU won the whole thing. Sunday's rout of Mizzou was a warning shot to the rest of the field that the fast-maturing Jayhawks mean business, and they're eligible for the Sprint Center sub-regional. Buffalo isn't exactly hitting the MAC regular-season tape with a lot of speed, but did break a 4-game losing streak in Sunday's 68-66 thriller vs. Ohio.

6 Xavier (23-5, 21) vs. 11 Kentucky (19-10, 48)... After wobbling a bit a few weeks ago, Xavier seems to have stabilized itself, with Saturday's impressive win at St. Joe's the Musketeers' first after three straight A-10 road losses. Remember, "X" owns non-conference wins over Missouri & Memphis, and Sean Miller's bunch could yet move up a line or two before Selection Sunday. Kentucky has put itself in a very precarious spot with losses vs. South Carolina and home vs. LSU last week. A split would have been enough for Billy Gillispie's crew to feel relatively safe, but now wins over Georgia (which shouldn't be much of a problem) and Florida (which might be a problem) this week could be imperative to stay on the right side of the Big Dance cut line.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis)

1 Memphis (26-3, 5) vs. 16 Jacksonville (17-12, 153)... John Calipari's Memphis can thank Blake Griffin's recent concussion for its ascension to a top seed, as we believe the Sooners might have relinquished that honor by losing recently vs. Texas & Kansas. With 20 straight wins after cruising past Southern Miss on Saturday, few would begrudge the Tigers a spot on the top line. As for Jacksonville, the 1970 finalist survived a Saturday war vs. Belmont to win the A-Sun's regular-season crown, but will still have to survive the conference tourney in Nashville (at Lipscomb's home court, not Belmont's) to advance to the Dance. Note that the Dolphins are also perilously close to an assignment in the play-in game.

8 Creighton (25-6, 52) vs. 9 Dayton (24-5, 61)... We know Dana Altman well enough that we can't envision his Creighton team taking anything for granted in this week's "Arch Madness" in St. Louis, even if we think the Bluejays are the only Valley team that can nab an NCAA at-large berth. Speaking of at-large berths, we think Dayton probably wrapped up one of its own with Saturday's win over pesky Temple. A win in the regular-season finale vs. Xavier (which would mean a regular-season sweep over the nearby Musketeers) could also give the Flyers the top seed in next week's A-10 Tourney at Atlantic City.

At Boise...

4 UCLA (22-7, 16) vs. 13 North Dakota State (23-6, 80)... By scratching out a couple of wins in the Bay Area last week, UCLA not only moved into sole possession of second place in the Pac-10, but also back into protected seed territory. Keep an eye on NDSU, which sent a warning shot in the Bracket Buster with a win at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Loaded with 5th-year seniors, the Bison are the sleeper of sleepers in this year's Dance, and enter this week's Summit Tourney in Sioux Falls, SD as the top seed.

5 Florida State (22-7, 33) vs. 12 Providence (18-11, 65)... Florida State's Saturday win over Clemson is the latest indicator that the Seminoles are a team to be reckoned with. And rest assured Leonard Hamilton's troops won't take the NCAA assignment lightly after missing the Dance the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Providence, practically given up for dead last week after losing big vs. Louisville & Notre Dame, bounced back with wins over top-rated Pitt and at pesky Rutgers to move very much back into the bubble mix. The two wins also guaranteed the Friars a winning mark in the Big East, which many believe is enough in itself for an invite to this year's Dance.

At Kansas City...

2 Oklahoma (26-3, 6) vs. 15 Robert Morris (21-10, 150)... Blake Griffin is back and so is Oklahoma, a 78-63 winner over Texas Tech in Lubbock Saturday afternoon (although Blake's brother Taylor actually led Sooner scorers with 22). A spot on the top line is still very much within OU's reach, especially if it can win the Big XII Tourney, to be held in nearby Oklahoma City. Robert Morris enters the Northeast Tourney as the top seed and clear favorite, especially since it will get to host all of its games in the postseason event.

7 South Carolina (21-7, 53) vs. 10 Boston College (20-9, 46)... We're not quite sure the Selection Committee is going to downgrade the SEC as much as ESPN's pundits, so we don't think that South Carolina's split last week (impressive win vs. Kentucky, ugly loss at Vanderbilt) is going to hurt the Gamecocks that much. At least we don't think so.With 20 wins and sitting above .500 in the ACC, and with the scalps of North Carolina & Duke for decoration, BC can feel comfy about its own bid, at least for the moment. But the Eagles have dipped on occasion this season, and Al Skinner's bunch is best advised not to slip on the NC State & Georgia Tech banana peels this week.

At Portland...

3 Marquette (23-6, 20) vs. 14 Stephen F Austin (19-7, 109)... We saw another example of the "injury myth" in action when Marquette, sans sr. leader Dominic James (out with a broken foot), nearly took down Louisville at Freedom Hall Sunday afternoon. The Golden Eagles are not playing 4-on-5 just because James is out, although James' replacement Maurice Acker did not have a career game (3 points & 3 assists) vs. the Cards. SFA has emerged from a crowded pack as the team to beat in the Southland Tourney (to be held in the Houston suburb of Katy). But the Lumberjacks will have to fend off several capable and hungry foes, including last year's surprise tourney winner (as an 8 seed), UT-Arlington's Movin' Mavs, who beat SFA by 15 back on Jan. 21 and have won 6 of their last 7.

6 Illinois (23-7, 17) vs. 11 Utah State (26-4, 44)... Illinois' Sunday loss vs. Michigan State probably doesn't hurt the Illini too much, although any chance to slip into protected seed territory now solely rests with winning the Big Ten Tourney in Indy. We're not sure about USU's at-large status after getting blown out Saturday night in Reno by Nevada, the Ags' third loss in two weeks. Moreover, the Wolf Pack is hosting the WAC Tourney, and Mark Fox's bunch just got a huge boost of confidence by throttling Stew Morrill's crew. After its recent setbacks, USU now might just have to win the event at the Lawlor Center to get to the Dance.

WEST REGIONAL (Glendale, AZ)

1 Pitt (26-3, 3) vs. 16 Morgan State (19-11, 165)... Pitt remains on the top line, but the Panthers' punishment for last Tuesday night's loss at Providence is a move out of the East Region to the West. Don't worry, Pitt has time to reclaim the top spot it wants in the East by winning the Big East Tourney, which it has done before. Todd Bozeman's Morgan State continues to set the pace in the MEAC and will be favored in its conference tourney at Winston-Salem, although the Bears' 8-game win streak was put to the sword last Monday by Hampton.

8 Tennessee (18-10, 41) vs. 9 Texas (19-9, 30)... That was a massive win for Tennessee on Sunday at Florida, as it puts the Vols in position to win the SEC East by beating South Carolina & Alabama this coming week. Moreover, it puts Bruce Pearl's bunch on the right side of the Dance cut line for now. Texas is probably still on the right side of the cut line, too, but we're not real bullish these days on the Longhorns, who lost again (at Oklahoma State) on Saturday. That's five losses in nine games for Texas, which is advised to take care of business Monday night vs. Baylor (so the Saturday game vs. hot Kansas isn't a possible do-or-die for at-large hopes).

At Portland...

4 Washington (22-7, 19) vs. 13 Davidson (24-6, 57)... U-Dub is looking more and more like a team of destiny in the Pac-10 after that pair of pulsating weekend wins over the visiting Arizona schools. The Huskies remain on course for the Pac-10's regular-season crown, which would probably reward Lorenzo Romar's crew with a protected seed, likely in Portland. Stephen Curry seems mostly recovered from his recent ankle injury, and Davidson is rolling again after Saturday's 99-56 bombing of Georgia Southern. Just in case the Wildcats lose in the SoCon tourney at Chattanooga and get thrown in the at-large pool, we wonder how much the Committee will discount Davidson's recent losses vs. The Citadel and Butler when Curry was either out or far less than 100%.

5 Gonzaga (23-5, 13) vs. 12 Miami-Florida (17-10, 28)... The Committee tosses these sorts of scenarios on the table almost every year, wherein a team doesn't necessarily qualify as a protected seed, but effectively gets such a sub-regional assignment. And that would be the case if Gonzaga gets a 5 seed and a ticket to Portland, not to mention a possible regional showdown in the second round vs. Washington (all the more intriguing since the Huskies recently stopped the annual series vs. the Zags). Having something to say about it could be a dangerous team such as Miami-Florida, whose computer numbers still look decent despite the team sitting under .500 in league play. Wins this week vs. NC State & Georgia Tech are imperative, however, if the Canes wish to stay in the at-large mix.

At Greensboro...

2 Duke (24-5, 4) vs. 15 CS Northridge (14-12, 137)... With wins in its last 4 games, Duke is back in the mix for a possible top seed, especially if the Blue Devils can avenge their recent home defeat vs. North Carolina in the regular-season finale, then win the ACC Tourney in Atlanta. A tall order, but not out of the question. CSUN sent a message to the rest of the Big West with a 21-point romp past top contender Long Beach State in Saturday. Granted, the Big West race is still a jumble, but the Matadors appear to be the slight favorite heading into the conference tourney at the Anaheim Convention Center, once upon a time the home of the ABA's Anaheim Amigos.

7 Utah (20-8, 25) vs. 10 Arizona (18-11, 40).... A lot of teams are going to want to have nothing to do with Utah, which is loaded with seniors, plays vicious defense, and has a legit "big" in 7-2 C Luke Nevill. Saturday's loss at BYU was on the heels of 8 straight wins, so we don't think the Utes' at-large hopes are in any jeopardy. We can't say the same for Arizona, which suffered a very bad week with three defeats (vs. Arizona State, resurgent Washington State, & Washington). The Cats might need to sweep the Bay Area schools at home this week to get back on the right side of the Big Dance cut line.

At Minneapolis...

3 Purdue (22-7, 12) vs. 14 Weber State (20-8, 94)... What a big win that was for Purdue on Saturday vs. Ohio State, as it not only avenged a bitter OT loss at Columbus Feb. 3, but it came on the heels of a potentially-damaging loss at Michigan that threatened the Boilermakers' protected seed status. Weber State has sewn up Big Sky regular-season crown, which means the Wildcats will be able to host the conference tournament in Ogden.

6 Syracuse (21-8, 24) vs. 11 UAB (20-9, 39)... There still might be time for Syracuse to move up a line or two by beating Rutgers and Marquette this week, and following up with a strong showing in the Big East Tourney. Mike Davis' UAB is clinging right on the cut line at the moment and will have to win at UTEP and home vs. Marshall this week to hope of staying there. Will the Committee shut out the C-USA, besides Memphis, for the second straight year?