Bracketology Update

Bracketology Update
By The Gold Sheet

They're back!

We're talking about the mid-majors, who have all but disappeared from recent NCAA Tourneys. The Big Dance at-large ranks, which were swelled a few years ago by numerous mid-majors, have been almost completely absent of them the past few seasons, instead filled by an overflow of "major" conference reps. Indeed, a year ago, only Dayton from the Atlantic 10 and BYU from the Mountain West (a conference which chafes at being mentioned as a "mid-major" and by many definitions might not qualify as such) were true "at large" teams from these ranks; the Horizon League and Atlantic 10 also sent multiple entries to last year's Dance, but the likes of Butler and Xavier were already safely into the field of 65, when Cleveland State (Horizon) and Temple (A-10) won automatic passes to the Dance from their respective league tourneys. Otherwise, it's been mostly a steady diet of BCS conference teams making up the at-large ranks the past few years.

But this season appears to be different, for a variety of reasons. Mainly, however, it's because there look to be a greater number of Big Dance-worthy at-large teams than in recent campaigns. Loops such as the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 would probably be looking at as many as three at-large bids were the Big Dance to be filled out today. Meanwhile, the Missouri Valley, Colonial, and West Coast and perhaps Conference USA could get multiple bids as well. And that's not even taking into consideration the possibility of upsets in tourneys where squads such as Butler (for sure) and Siena (possibly) figure to get invitations no matter what happens in their conference tourneys.

Moreover, there is mounting evidence that some of the "big boys" are down a notch or two (or three) this season. The Pac-10 has endured such a non-descript first two months of the season that some have projected it to be a single-bid league this March. The SEC, which sent only three teams to the Dance a year ago, is no sure thing to get any more than that this season. And the ACC is threatening to cannibalize itself, likely knocking a few teams out of the Big Dance picture in the process.

What it all means, however, is that more games are going to have Big Dance implications throughout the next seven weeks before we get to conference tourney time. And from this point forward, discussion about "March Madness" and the "Big Dance" are going to dominate more and more of the college basketball discussion. So, with that in mind, we're going to present our first installment of "Bracketology" and continue to do so up until Selection Sunday. This is our first look; our next update will be the week of February 1.

So, let's get to our first Big Dance projections of 2009-10. Our "last four in" this week are Saint Mary's, UNLV, William & Mary, and Oklahoma State; our "last four out" are Florida, North Carolina, Maryland, and Minnesota; "next four out" Illinois, Marquette, Northwestern, and Tulsa. Straight-up records and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) are thru January 21.

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)

At Providence

1 Syracuse (SUR 18-1, RPI-1) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (12-6, 182)...The rewards are going to be great for Syracuse if the Orange can keep up their current pace, because the East Regional will be played at the Carrier Dome, and Jim Boeheim's bunch is on course for not only that assignment, but a desirable sub-regional venue at Providence. The Pollsters, er, Bobcats from Quinnipiac could be making their first-ever Big Dance appearance, and along with Robert Morris and Sacred Heart are the only lNortheast Conference reps above .500 for the season into late January.

8 Missouri (14-4, 48) vs. 9 Xavier (12-6, 16)...The "X" has become a tourney regular and will be looking to maintain that status under new HC Chris Mack. The Musketeers' RPI has been helped by a tough non-conference slate which includes some "good" losses (Kansas State, 1 point at Butler, 4 points at Wake Forest, 5 points at Baylor and Temple) and a good win over Cincinnati. Mike Anderson has done a quick rebuild job at Mizzou and has the Tigers on course to return to the Dance after advancing to the Elite 8 last March. This would, by the way, be a rematch of a memorable first-round upset Xavier pulled over the Tigers way back in 1987.

At San Jose

4 BYU (19-1, 21) vs. 13 Cornell (15-3, 38)...Keep in mind some of the specifics regarding BYU, which will need to play in the Thursday-Saturday rotation during the sub-regional and (if it advances) the regionals because of LDS restrictions on Sunday games. Thus, BYU, which might be the West's highest-rated team going into the Dance, looks to be a good shot for a "protected" seed and a sub-regional assignment to either San Jose or Spokane, and to be placed in the East or West Regionals, also on the Thursday-Saturday schedule. If the Cougs get placed in the West, a trip to a very-friendly Salt Lake City site awaits for the regional. Cornell, however, is one of the best-regarded Ivy sides since Princeton in the late '90s, and would not be an easy "out" (note that near-miss at Kansas a few weeks ago); could the Big Red get involved in the at-large discussion if dangerous Harvard noses them out in the Ivy?

5 Georgia Tech (14-4, 26) vs. 12 La Tech (17-3, 56)...Paul Hewitt's Yellow Jackets are likely to return to the Dance after missing a year ago; enjoy star frosh F Derrick Favors in a Tech uniform while you can. La Tech currently sits on top of what figures to be a very congested WAC race, with defending champ Utah State and dangerous Nevada (which hosts the conference tourney in Reno) likely to provide the stiffest competition. Right now, however, the WAC is one mid-major league that doesn't look as if it will be getting multiple bids.

At Oklahoma City

2 Kansas State (16-2, 3) vs. 15 Morgan State (12-7, 119)...Although Bob Knight might need more convincing, K-State has positioned itself in threatening position for a top regional seed after last Monday's win over then-number one Texas. Could the Big XII get three teams to this season's Final Four (Wildcats, Longhorns, and Kansas)? Todd Bozeman's Morgan State is currently setting the pace in the MEAC ahead of Bethune-Cookman (likely the only serious challenger) and held its own in a brutal non-league slate (played almost entirely away from Baltimore) that included an upset win at Arkansas.

7 Mississippi State (15-3, 47) vs. 10 George Mason (12-7, 102)...Jarvis Varnado and MSU look to be on their way to a third straight Big Dance visit, as the Bulldogs begin to pull clear in the SEC west. A relatively soft non?league slate absent any signature wins (except, perhaps, over Old Dominion) has hurt the Maroon's RPI, however. The Colonial contenders have begun to separate from the pack, and Jim Larranaga's GMU is again right in the mix. Right now, any from among the Patriots, hot Northeastern and Virginia Commonwealth, plus William & Mary & ODU, figure as co-top choices in the conference tourney at Richmond, with an extra Big Dance bid a distinct possibility.

At Milwaukee

3 Wisconsin (15-4, 9) vs. 14 Oakland (13-7, 68)...Make no mistake, the Badgers are gunning for a protected seed and this sub-regional assignment in nearby Milwaukee, although they'll continue to have to stay near the top of the pack in the Big Ten to get to the Bradley Center. Should this matchup materialize it would be a rematch of a November 18 game won by the Badgers, 58-42. The Golden Grizzlies lost big vs. Kansas and Syracuse (which has also helped the RPI) in pre-league play, but the Summit (where IUPUI looks to be the main challenger) doesn't look so daunting after running that gauntlet.

6 Baylor (14-3, 28) vs. 11 Louisville (12-7, 40)...An argument can be made that the Big XII is the nation's toughest league if a dangerous entry such as Baylor might not be any better than the fourth best team in the conference. Indeed, heading into late January, every Big XII team is at least two games over .500. S for Louisville, the Cards are a very iffy Big Dance projection at the moment, especially after a recent loss at Seton Hall. Rick Pitinio's bunch figures to be riding the bubble throughout the winter.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)

1 Kentucky (18-0, 10) vs. 16 Play-in game... It hasn't taken John Calipari long to make his mark in Lexington, although according to him, the Cats have already lost eight games. Regardless of Coach Cal's arithmetic, UK is on course for a potential top seed in the entire tournament. At this moment, the play-in game would likely feature the Patriot League's Lafayette (13-6, 194) and the SWAC's Prairie View (9-7, 241), whose marching band is getting ready to wow 'em again at the upcoming Honda Battle of the Bands at Atlanta's Georgia Dome January 30.

8 UConn (12-6, 23) vs. 9 Florida State (14-4, 51)...For the moment, mention of UConn focuses upon the condition of HC Jim Calhoun, who was recently forced to take a leave of absence due to health reasons. There's been no timetable set for his return. For now, the Huskies' Big East pedigree likely lands them in 8-9 territory, but with plenty of potential losses looming in that rough circuit, UConn can't afford to slip on too many banana peels. We're not sure quite how deep the Selection Committee is going to go in the balanced ACC, where FSU is in the middle of the pack as January nears its conclusion.

At Spokane

4 Purdue (16-3, 14) vs. 13 Western Carolina (15-3, 66)...A couple of weeks ago, Purdue was unbeaten and looking like a possible number one seed. The Boilermakers still look a good bet to land in protected seed territory, but given the sub-regional venues and lack of deserving candidates in the west, someone from elsewhere in the country is going to have to get shipped to Spokane and/or San Jose, and it might be the Boilermakers. WCU curently leads the North half of the SoCon, with Bobby Cremins' College of Charleston setting the pace in the South half, although the Catamounts (who beat Louisville in pre-league play) get a slight nod at the moment based on a better RPI. This, by the way, would be a rematch of a classic 1995 first-round game in which WCU almost became the first (and only) 16 seed to knock off a number one, when it barely missed by 1 point vs. Gene Keady's Purdue.

5 Gonzaga (15-3, 13) vs. 12 Oklahoma State (14-4, 39)...Gonzaga could present an interesting scenario with a sub-regional down the street from campus at the Spokane Arena. The Zags could be assigned to Spokane because they play their home games on campus at the McCarthey Center, and even if they're not technically a protected seed, they could become one in a de facto sense if assigned as a number five to the same Spokane Arena sub-regional. Which would be just fine with Mark Few. Ok State is one of several teams likely to be caught in a mid-level Big XII logjam that could eventually claim a couple of Big Dance-capable squads.

At Providence

2 Villanova (17-1, 5) vs. 15 Vermont (14-5, 157)...Villanova certainly remains in the frame for a potential top seed and would likely be headed either to Providence or Buffalo for sub-regional action. We're not sure Vermont would welcome a trip back to the Dunkin' Donuts Center after losing by 42 on this court to Providence back in November. Remember the last time Vermont, led by Taylor Coppenrath (now playing in Spain), faced a Big East team in the first round? We guarantee that Jim Boehiem and Syracuse (a 60-57 overtime loser) haven't forgotten.

7 Wichita State (17-3, 45) vs. 10 Dayton (14-4, 30)...This would be quite a battle of mid-major heavyweights, each having won games in Big Dance play the past few years. Wichita State is likely to be at the point in March where it won't have to win "Arch Madness" in St. Louis (otherwise known as the Missouri Valley Tourney) to advance. Meanwhile, we project the A-10 with four bids at the moment and give one of hem to the Flyers, who still have to keep an eye on a variety of other possible contenders (Charlotte, Saint Louis, and Richmond) that are eager to move up the competitive A-10 table.

At New Orleans

3 Tennessee (15-2, 15) vs. 14 Kent State (11-7, 80)...UT continues to roll along despite the recent wave of suspensions that thinned the Vols' ranks considerably. It hasn't hurt Bruce Pearl's team just yet (ask Kansas), but we wonder how UT will be holding up in March. About all we can say about the MAC is that it will be a one-bid league once more. And even though Kent State isn't sitting atop its half of the loop, it did just beat East leader Buffalo by 35 points.

6 Wake Forest (13-4, 27) vs. 11 Texas A&M (13-5, 35)...The Deacs are holding their own in the early stages of the ACC season, but must beware of the many potholes in that league...there's still time for Wake or others in the ACC to play themselves out of the Dance. Which could also apply to A&M in the tough, tough Big XII.