Bracketology Update
The Gold Sheet
Don't look now, but March Mayhem isn't far away!
Indeed, the college basketball campaign is preparing to enter its home stretch. And as February progresses, the focus switches to the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
Although none of us "Bracketologists" can say for sure what the NCAA Selection Committee will eventually do, it is awfully fun to project what the NCAA Tournament might look like if the tournament started this week. And even if all projections are unofficial, they do give us a bit of a road map to follow as we handicap each remaining week of the season, with teams jockeying for coveted positions and better seeds in the upcoming "Big Dance," which concludes this season with the Final Four at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium April 3-5.
At this stage, we can expect a bit more mid-major representation than a year ago, when only four at-large teams from those ranks qualified for the field. Right now, we're projecting three at-large bids being awarded to the Atlantic Ten alone and two more to the Mountain West, although we are not sure how deep the Selection Committee will go in leagues such as the Missouri Valley (where only Northern Iowa appears to be in "safe" territory), West Coast (where only Gonzaga looks solid), WAC, or Colonial. At the moment, our mid-major "at-large" count is seven (three from the A-10, two from the Mountain West, and one each from C-USA and the WCC), although those projections can change by the week (with next week's "Bracket Buster" games in particular serving as crucial tests for a variety of mid-major entries). And let's not forget possible upsets in upcoming conference tourney action that can alter the dynamics even further.
So, let's get to our latest "Bracketology" update and Big Dance projections. Our "last four in" this week are Virginia Tech, Louisville, Saint Mary's, and UTEP; our "last four out" are Northwestern, Wichita State, Minnesota, and Xavier; our "next four out" are Northeastern, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and South Carolina. Straight-up records and RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) are thru February 10.
EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)
At Providence...
1 Syracuse (SUR 24-1, RPI-2) vs. 16 Robert Morris (16-9, 158)...The rewards are going to be great for Syracuse if the Orange can keep up its current pace, because the East Regional will be played at the Carrier Dome, and Jim Boeheim's bunch is on course for not only that assignment, but a also for desirable sub-regional venue at Providence. Robert Morris, hard by the Pittsburgh International Airport, is involved in a real battle with the Pollsters, er, Bobcats, from Quinnipiac for control of the Northeast Conference; if either isn't careful it could be sucked into the play-in game, which at the moment the Northeast champ would appear to barely avoid. Stay tuned.
8 Ole Miss (17-6, 39) vs. 9 Siena (21-4, 33)...Ole Miss has been sliding down our seedings the past few weeks, as the Rebs have failed to take control of a very winnable SEC West and haven't scored a win over a Top 50 foe since beating Kansas State way back on November 20 at the Puerto Rico Shootout. Losses in upcoming home games vs. Vandy and Tennessee could see the Rebs slip closer to the proverbial "bubble." Fran McCaffery's Siena is certainly no stranger to the Dance, winning first-round games the past two seasons (vs. Vandy and Ohio State, respectively), and could be maneuvering into "safe" territory even if it loses in the Metro-Atlantic Tourney. Winning the upcoming Bracket Buster vs. Butler might be enough to get the Saints into solid at-large territory, although note that Siena is currently 0-3 vs. top-50 RPI teams (losses to Northern Iowa, Temple, and Georgia Tech), and 18 of its 21 wins are vs. teams outside of the RPI Top 100.
At San Jose...
4 Baylor (18-5, 28) vs. 13 Saint Mary's (21-3, 44)...With the west having two venues (San Jose and Spokane) for sub-regional action but not many candidates for "protected seed" status, you'll see a few seeds in the 1-4 category traveling farther than usual in the first weekend. Which might not bother Baylor, which has emerged as possible protected seed after recent developments in the Big XII that have included Texas' dramatic fall from grace. Right now, the Bears appear to be the third team out of the Big XII, but it is living a bit dangerously at the moment after Wednesday's narrow escape at Nebraska. After cruelly denying Saint Mary's a bid last season, the Committee might cut the Gaels some slack this time and even give them a chance to play close to home in the first round, which the Committee has been known to do on occasion. Besides, it gives a little more local flavor to the San Jose sub-regional. Regardless, the Gaels are hovering dangerously around the cut line as we enter mid-February.
5 BYU (22-3, 20) vs. 12 Utah State (18-6, 49)...Keep in mind some of the specifics regarding BYU, which will need to play in the Thursday-Saturday rotation during the sub-regional and (if it advances) the regionals because of LDS restrictions on Sunday games. Thus, BYU, which might be the West's highest-rated team going into the Dance, appears to be a good shot for a "protected" seed and a sub-regional assignment to either San Jose or Spokane, and to be placed in the East or West Regionals, also on the Thursday-Saturday schedule. If the Cougs get placed in the West, a trip to a very-friendly Salt Lake City site awaits for the regional, but BYU might have to win the MWC Tourney in Las Vegas to get such preferential treatment. The Committee usually frowns upon first-round rematches from the regular season (and hot Utah State did beat BYU back on December 2), but this would add a little regional flavor to the San Jose sub-regional, and the Committee might not be in a mood to do BYU any extra favors after jumping through scheduling hoops for the Cougs on an annual basis.
At Jacksonville...
2 Duke (20-4, 4) vs. 15 Morgan State (18-7, 120)...Duke appears to be emerging from the ACC pack and avoiding some of the cannibalization that is going to hurt seeding prospects for several other conference contenders. The Blue Devils are also lurking in the background for a possible number one seed if any among Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, or Villanova (our projected top seeds at the moment) falter in the next month. Meanwhile, Todd Bozeman's Morgan State is currently running away in the MEAC and held its own in a brutal non-league slate (played almost entirely away from Baltimore) that included an upset win at Arkansas. As long as the Bears avoid the banana peel in their conference tourney at Winston-Salem, they should not have to worry about being involved in the play-in game.
7 Northern Iowa (22-2, 15) vs. 10 Cornell (20-3, 47)...After Wednesday night's win at Drake, we're to the point where we can begin to safely project UNI into the field, regardless of what happens in "Arch Madness" (otherwise known as the MVC Tourney) at St. Louis next month. The Panthers have drawn clear from a competitive Valley field and will be featured in one of the highlighted Bracket Buster games next weekend against Old Dominion. UNI has done enough to recover from a November loss vs. DePaul in the Virgin Islands to consider itself solidly in the field of 65 (barring a complete collapse, of course). Cornell has already brushed aside what appeared its top Ivy challenger, Harvard, although Princeton has now emerged as a more serious threat than the Crimson and will be hosting the Big Red this weekend in a showdown at Jadwin Gym. If Cornell, which played Syracuse and Kansas tough in pre-Ivy play, repels the Tigers, it might be approaching the point where it could be wearing its white uniforms in a first-round game.
At Milwaukee....
3 Wisconsin (18-6, 16) vs. 14 College of Charleston (16-9, 107)...Make no mistake, the Badgers are gunning for a protected seed and sub-regional assignment in nearby Milwaukee, although they'll continue to have to stay near the top of the pack in the Big Ten to get to the Bradley Center. So far, they're doing just fine. Meanwhile, Bobby Cremins is threatening to return again to the Dance in his new gig (well, it's his 4th year) at Charleston, which once was a noted troublemaker in March during the regime of the legendary John Kresse. Cremins' Cougars are first going to have to fight off capable Western Carolina, Wofford, and App State in the SoCon Tourney before securing passage to the Dance. By the way, Charleston will be involved in one of the more-intriguing Bracket Busters when it travels to George Mason next weekend.
6 Temple (19-5, 17) vs. 11 Virginia (14-7, 91)...Temple is certainly in the frame for a protected seed, although we suspect the Owls might have to emerge from that logjam atop the A-10 and win the conference tourney at Atlantic City to earn a top four spot. With wins over Villanova, Siena, and Virginia Tech in pre-league play, Fran Dunphy's team appears to be solidly in the Dance, however. We're not as sure about Virginia, although the Cavs have been the surprise team in the ACC (who figured Virginia to be running several lengths ahead of North Carolina in mid-February?). The Cavs' contending status in league play is keeping them in the bubble mix after enduring some real hits in pre-ACC play (losses to Stanford, Penn State, and Auburn still hurt). Tony Bennett will be facing several other "bubblers" in the next few weeks, after which we'll have a better idea where UVa really stands.
SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)
At New Orleans...
1 Kentucky (23-1, 5) vs. 16 Play-in game winner...It hasn't taken John Calipari long to make his mark in Lexington, although according to him, the Cats have already lost eight (or is it now nine?) games. Regardless of Coach Cal's arithmetic, UK is on course for a potential top seed in the entire tournament. At this moment, the play-in game at Dayton would likely feature the Patriot League's Lehigh (15-8, 163) and the SWAC's Jackson State (12-11, 230), whose marching band wowed 'em again at the recent Honda Battle of the Bands at Atlanta's Georgia Dome January 30.
8 Clemson (17-7, 41) vs. 9 Cal (15-8, 25)...We've seen this "Tiger tale" repeated several times in recent years, as Clemson appears to be wobbling down the stretch. But Wednesday night's win over Florida State temporarily stopped the bleeding, and with G Demontez Stitt back from injury, we expect Oliver Purnell's team to stabilize in the 7-9 seed range, At this moment, we project Cal as the only Pac-10 rep in what is a very down year for that league, although several insiders have cautioned us not to jump to those conclusions so quickly, considering how much "juice" the conference has with the Committee. Cal's profile is still a bit spotty, with an 0-4 mark vs. Top 50 RPI opposition, and an RPI that will slide further with more Pac-10 foes upcoming. Thursday night's revenge game vs. Washington (a peripheral bubble team at the moment) will be crucial for Mike Montgomery's Golden Bears, who might eventually have to survive the Pac-10 Tourney to get to the Big Dance.
At Oklahoma City...
4 Wake Forest (17-5, 13) vs. 13 UTEP (17-5, 58)...The Deacs are getting close to locking up an at-large bid (a win Saturday over Georgia Tech would just about do it) and can begin to zero in on a protected seed, although the way the field is shaping up, we still suspect that Wake could be shipped a good distance from Winston-Salem for sub-regional action. Non-league wins vs. Gonzaga and Xavier will come in handy at seeding time, as well as the Deacs' 8-5 mark vs. top 100-RPI teams. UTEP might be emerging from a crowded C-USA pack that we believe will probably net an extra bid for the league, but Tony Barbee's Miners have showdowns vs. Tulsa and UAB before the conference tourney commences, so there is still much work to do.
5 Texas (19-5, 27) vs. 12 Louisville (15-8, 43)...No team is falling faster than Texas, which has tumbled into the middle of the Big XII pack and out of protected seed territory for the moment (although we have placed them in what would be a very favorable sub-regional assignment at Oklahoma City). It's been five losses in seven games for Rick Barnes' Longhorns, who are advised to stop the bleeding this weekend vs. Nebraska. Another lousy week and Texas might even get drawn into some bubble discussion. As for Louisville, it figures to be riding on the bubble all of the way into March, and Rick Pitino's club has little margin for error, especially with a 4-8 mark vs. top 100-RPI teams and a 1-5 record as a visitor heading into Thursday night's game at St. John's...and Sunday at Syracuse.
At Buffalo...
2 West Virginia (19-4, 6) vs. 15 Belmont (15-10, 142)...Bob Huggins' troops have teased with the idea they could nab a number one seed, but with all of those hurdles to overcome in the Big East, we suspect the Mountaineers are more likely to wind up as a 2 or 3 seed. Belmont has caused some trouble in the past in March under longtime HC Rick Byrd (Duke barely escaped a first-round ambush a few years ago), and the Bruins seem to be in pole position to return to the Dance as the Atlantic Sun rep if they can repel crosstown Nashville rival Lipscomb.
7 Rhode Island (19-4, 14) vs. 10 Florida (17-7, 48)...Both took stinging defeats on Wednesday night but have positioned themselves to get back into the Dance...at least to this point. The Rams' profile remains surprisingly strong despite the midweek loss vs. Richmond, although URI could really help its cause by upsetting Temple this weekend. Computer numbers, however, are pretty good, including 8-2 in road games and 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100 foes. Florida's position is probably more dicey than URI's, as despite a nice recent uptick the Gators still haven't beaten an RPI Top 50 team in over two months (although they do own non-SEC wins over Michigan State & Florida State). After Wednesday night's loss vs. pesky South Carolina, Florida will likely have to beat Xavier in an intriguing intersectional this weekend to stay on the right side of our cut line for next week.
At Spokane...
3 Michigan State (19-6, 21) vs. 14 Arkansas State (14-9, 160)...Shades of Texas? Maybe, as MSU's current 3-game losing streak has eliminated some of that far-fetched talk of nabbing a number one seed in one of the regions. At least the Spartans have star Kalin Lucas back from an ankle injury, although he looked a lot less than 100% when facing Purdue on Tuesday night. For the moment we have shipped the Spartans out to Spokane's sub-regional, which is going to have to bring in some 3-4 seed from elsewhere in the country (being that there are so few protected-seed quality teams in the west). The Sun Belt equation changes by the week, and at the moment Arkansas State looks to be in the driver's seat, although the Red Wolves are going to have to survive what might be the nation's most wide-open conference tourney before punching their ticket to the Dance.
6 Butler (21-4, 12) vs. 11 Oklahoma State (16-7, 36)...Butler seems more in control of the Horizon than in recent years and looks securely into the field of 65 regardless of what happens in its conference tourney, although we're not convinced the Committee is going to reward the Bulldogs with a protected seed. Nor are we sure the Committee is going to reward Ok State at all, especially with the Cowboys sliding of late. OSU's computer numbers are not great, and last Saturday's loss at Texas Tech almost bumps them out of the field altogether at the moment. The January 23 win over Kansas State, however, will be a nice chip to cash on Selection Sunday.
MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis)
At Oklahoma City...
1 Kansas (23-1, 1) vs. 16 Coastal Carolina (21-4, 141)...We're still pretty confident that KU will earn a top seed and get assigned to either Oklahoma City or New Orleans for sub-regional action. And don't expect the Jayhawks to take anything for granted in the first round, as Bill Self will remind his troops about a previous highly-regarded Jayhawk team that lost to Bucknell in the opener. Coastal Carolina has begun to draw clear in the Big South and will be that loop's team to beat in the upcoming conference tourney, in which the Chanticleers probably won't have to leave Conway if they progress. CC is coached by Cliff Ellis, who will be looking to tie Eddie Sutton and Lon Kruger's marks by taking a fourth different school to the Dance (he's previously taken South Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn).
8 UNLV (19-5. 32) vs. 9 Old Dominion (18-7, 35)...The Rebels still look in good shape for an at-large spot despite Wednesday's loss vs. revenge-minded New Mexico, although Lon Kruger's troops will feel a lot more comfy about their NCAA prospects if they can win at dangerous San Diego State this weekend. Remember, UNLV also gets to host the Mountain West Tourney, which it has won 2 of the past 3 years. The Colonial had an impressive non-league run and has a few possible at-large candidates, although at the moment we think that only ODU (which won at Georgetown, in the Hoyas' campus gym, no less, and throttled Charlotte) is well-placed for an at-large. The Monarchs can almost cement that spot with a Bracket Buster win over Northern Iowa. Regardless, this year's CAA Tourney figures to be a real war, with VCU, Northeastern, William & Mary, and George Mason all on the periphery of the bubble as well.
At San Jose....
4 Ohio State (19-6, 40) vs. 13 Murray State (22-3, 89)...With Ohio State surging since star Evan Turner returned from his scary neck injury, the Buckeyes are in definite contention for a protected seed, although the dynamics of this year's sub-regional sites suggest they could be shipped far from Columbus. Thad Matta might be wondering what a protected seed is worth if OSU has to fly to San Jose for sub-regional action. Some observers of the OVC believe this year's Murray State squad (currently unbeaten in league play) is the loop's best chance to break its Big Dance slump in a long while, as the Racers are favored to be this year's rep to try for the league's first NCAA win of the millennium.
5 Pitt (18-6, 18) vs. 12 Virginia Tech (19-4, 63)...Pitt appears on course to safely qualify for the field of 65, but a recent slump has the Panthers sliding the wrong way down the seedings chart, and an always-challenging set of Big East games on deck (beginning Friday night with a hoops version of the "Backyard Brawl" vs. West Virginia) will clear up Pitt's possible protected seed status. Thanks to a soft non-conference slate with few noteworthy wins, VPI does not have a great set of computer numbers, and Seth Greenberg has been cruelly denied a Dance bid before. But his Hokies are now surging with six wins in their last seven games to move into contention in the rough-and-tumble ACC.
At Providence...
2 Georgetown (18-5, 7) vs. 15 Sam Houston State (16-5, 77)...The Big East figures to get multiple protected seeds, and Georgetown appears a very good bet to get one of them. A trip to the familiar Dunkin' Donuts Center in Providence would be a proper sub-regional reward for JT III's Hoyas. We're not sure the Southland is quite as dangerous as it has been the past few years, but the league is well balanced, and anything could happen in the conference tourney (which was won by an 8 seed, UT-Arlington, two years ago) to be held in the Houston suburb of Katy. Right now, Sam Houston, still unbeaten in conference play, rates the favorite over Stephen F. Austin and Texas A&M/Corpus Christi. Remember that the Bearkats played Kentucky pretty tough in November.
7 Texas A&M (17-6, 19) vs. 10 Illinois (17-8, 35)...A&M has rallied with a 3-game win streak (including a victory over high-flying Baylor) to put it back in the thick of the Big XII race. Four wins over RPI-Top 50 teams are an at-large plus, although the Ags have a big 48 hours on deck with Texas Tech (Saturday) and Kansas (Monday) in the queue. Illinois is headed back in the right direction with a recent 5-game win streak that includes wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Illini have a couple of unsightly losses (Bradley & Utah) on their resume' as well, but also RPI-Top 50 non-league wins at Clemson and vs. Vanderbilt that should come in handy on Selection Sunday.
At Jacksonville...
3 Vanderbilt (18-5, 11) vs. 14 Oakland (18-8, 69)...Vandy's Tuesday night romp past Tennessee gives the Dores two wins over the Vols and should place them above UT on the seeding curve, at least for the moment. That Tuesday night romp at Memorial Gym should also cement Vandy into the Dance as well. Oakland will have to travel all of the way from Michigan to Sioux Falls, SD to win the Summit Tourney, but right now the Golden Grizzlies look to be in pole position ahead of Oral Roberts (which beat Missouri in pre-league play), IUPUI, and South Dakota State, which will have a regional edge for the event.
6 Georgia Tech (17-7, 23) vs. 11 Richmond (19-4, 14)...Paul Hewitt should have Georgia Tech back in the Dance in March, but the young Yellow Jackets have been a bit unpredictable, and Wednesday night's loss vs. Miami should scuttle talk of a protected seed, at least for the time being. Richmond figures to be a good test case for the A-10's standing with the Selection Committee, as the Spiders have at-large quality computer numbers but might not rate better than the fourth or fifth entry from the league by the time the dust settles after the conference tourney in Atlantic City. They might be fighting with an A-10 foe such as Xavier for one of those final at-large spots.
WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City)
at Buffalo...
1 Villanova (21-2, 3) vs. 16 Stony Brook (16-7, 156)...Villanova certainly looks like a top seed at the moment, especially after Monday night's win over West Virginia. The Cats can expect sub-regional action close to home, but will probably need to beat out Syracuse in conference play to stay in the East bracket (and Carrier Dome for the East Regional) rather than eventually being shipped as far as Salt Lake City if they proceed to the second weekend. Stony Brook is currently battling Vermont and Maine atop the America East as the Seawolves seek their first-ever Big Dance bid, but the winner of the loop is going to be in a nip-and-tuck battle (likely vs. the Patriot League champ) to avoid the play-in game against, almost assuredly vs. the SWAC winner.
8 UAB (19-4, 30) vs. 9 Maryland (16-6, 42)...Now that Memphis is no longer overwhelming Conference USA, it could become a multi-bid league once more, and we suspect that Mike Davis' UAB can earn one of those spots despite a recent 2-game losing streak. UTEP (which we are also currently projecting into the field), Marshall, Memphis, and Tulsa (which this year gets the conference tourney in its hometown) are all in the mix as well. The arrow is pointing up lately at Maryland, which has emerged as a serious challenger to Duke in the ACC. Non-league work was not particularly impressive, however, so the Terps need to avoid a late slump to feel good about their at-large hopes and a return to the Dance.
At Spokane...
4 Gonzaga (19-4, 24) vs. 13 Kent State (18-7, 66)...Although teams can't play sub-regional action on their home floor, Gonzaga can get around that technicality because of the Spokane Arena venue, which is literally down the street from campus but not the home court of the Zags, who play on campus at the cozy McCarthey Center. With so few western teams looking like protected seed candidates, we suspect Gonzaga has a good chance to nail a 4 seed and an assignment in its own neighborhood for the first weekend. The MAC looks a wide-open race, but Kent State appears to be emerging as the team to beat in the Eastern half of the loop, and its recent dominance over MAC West foes suggests it will probably be favored in the conference tourney at Cleveland next month.
5 New Mexico (22-3, 10) vs. 12 Missouri (17-6, 46)...After hitting a couple of speed bumps in the first week of Mountain West play, New Mexico is surging with eight straight wins that include recent successes vs. loop heavyweights BYU, San Diego State, and UNLV. The Lobos should be safely in the field and are likely to be rewarded with a favorable venue in sub-regional action. Missouri's profile is not convincing at the moment as it languishes in the middle of the Big XII table, although the Tigers have enough quality wins (Kansas State, Old Dominion, Texas Tech, Ok State) to suggest they're on the right side of the cut line for now.
At New Orleans...
2 Kansas State (19-4, 8) vs. 15 Pacific (15-8, 112)...Given the Big XII's enhanced status this season, K-State's prowess makes it a likely protected seed (provided, of course, the Wildcats don't stumble down the stretch). The Big West is a far cry from the days of UNLV, Fresno State, and even New Mexico State and Utah State, when the league graced the national stage. UOP, an upset loser at nearby UC Davis on Wednesday night, is currently battling UCSB for pole position for the conference tourney, held at the cozy Anaheim Convention Center (onetime home of the ABA's Anaheim Amigos), in March.
7 Dayton (17-6, 34) vs. 10 Florida State (17-7, 37)....Recent romps past fellow A-10 bubblers Xavier and Charlotte has Dayton flying (no pun intended) in the right direction as February proceeds. Some of the Flyers' non-conference losses aren't going to hurt that much (very competitive efforts vs. Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico), and wins over Georgia Tech & Old Dominion will help. There's enough heft in the Dayton profile to suggest Brian Gregory's team will get back to the Dance. Meanwhile, FSU remains involved in the ACC scrum that seems to be changing every week, and the Wednesday loss vs. Clemson doesn't help. Computer numbers aren't too bad (6-6 vs. RPI-Top 100) but with elbow room very limited in the competitive loop, the Noles have to at least hold serve at home in upcoming games vs. BC, Clemson, and Wake Forest to stay on the right side of the cut line.
At Milwaukee....
3 Purdue (20-3, 9) vs. 14 Weber State (15-8, 80)...After a few hiccups early in the Big Ten race, Purdue has stabilized itself in recent weeks, and, by winning in style on Tuesday night at Michigan State, certainly enhanced its chances for protected seed status and a preferred sub-regional assignment at Milwaukee. Some observers in the west believe either Weber State or Northern Colorado out of the Big Sky could cause some trouble in March, and remember that the league has pulled some Big Dance surprises in recent memory (Montana KO'ing highly-regarded Nevada in 2006 immediately coming to mind). Right now, the Wildcats hold the edge over Northern Colorado, and, if that holds, it also means Weber State will get to host the conference tourney at Ogden.
6 Tennessee (18-5, 22) vs. 11 Texas Tech (16-7, 29)...The Bradley Center sub-regional would be an interesting assignment for UT simply because it would be a homecoming of sorts for Bruce Pearl, who coached local UW-Milwaukee into the Dance before taking the Knoxville job. The Vols' win over Kansas is keeping them safely in the Dance field, but Tuesday's loss at Vandy (the second this season vs. the Dores) likely has UT outside of protected seed territory. That could change quickly if the Vols can spring an upset at Kentucky on Saturday. Meanwhile, Pat Knight's Texas Tech definitely has a Big Dance pulse after back-to-back wins over Ok State and Oklahoma, the latter at Norman. A split of the next four vs. Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas, and Kansas should be enough to keep the Red Raiders on the right side of the cut line heading into March.